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Waller County, TX

Prairie View-Waller

RANK #945 / 996 NAT  ·  #58 / 69 TX  ·  POP 57,463

1YR FORECAST: -1.7%

5YR OUTLOOK: +9%

#23 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Waller County's housing market at -1.7% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Waller County?

Waller County, Texas, is often recognized for Prairie View A&M University, a historically Black university that significantly shapes the area's cultural and educational landscape. Located about 40 miles northwest of downtown Houston, the county offers a blend of rural charm and accessibility to urban amenities. Major highways like U.S. Highway 290 and Interstate 10 provide routes for commuting, with travel times to Houston ranging from 30 minutes to an hour, though rush hour can double this. The landscape features open spaces, agricultural areas, and natural features like lakes and ponds, providing opportunities for outdoor recreation such as hiking. Notable towns include Hempstead, the county seat, and Brookshire.

Life in Waller County combines a small-town atmosphere with increasing development. The area attracts families seeking affordability, open spaces, and a community-focused environment. Waller County's economy is experiencing growth, driven by investments in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. This includes expansion in manufacturing, logistics, and energy services. Waller Independent School District is also expanding to accommodate a growing student population.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.5x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
-2.1%

Contracting economy

Home Prices
-1.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
1.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks undervalued at 3.5x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Daikin Texas Technology Park (Goodman Manufacturing) Manufacturing
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Prairie View A&M University Education
  3. 3
    Waller Independent School District Education
    500+
  4. 4
    Alegacy Manufacturing Manufacturing
    250+
  5. 5
    AFGlobal (NRG) Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Buc-ee's Retail
    100+
  7. 7
    Tomball Forest Other
  8. 8
    R&L Carriers Logistics
  9. 9
    J.W. Williams Other
    80
  10. 10
    Laney Drilling Energy
    70

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Waller County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
57,463
+3.53% YoY
Median Household Income
$71,643
Median Home Value
$268,200
-1.84% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,109
Average Annual Pay
$61,149
+4.7% YoY
Employment
26,681
+3.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2671
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
7.47%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
24.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$308,000
Days on Market
84
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.5
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
92.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
8.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
41.4%
Building Permits (2024)
480
Single-Family Permits
368

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
11.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
67.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$1,865M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Parliament Solar Project
Parliament Solar LLC (EnCap Investments and Mercuria Energy)
$640M Under Construction
H-E-B Distribution Campus
H-E-B
$500M Under Construction
Ochoa Energy Storage
$260M Planned
Beacon Hill Master-Planned Community
Long Lake Ltd. / Wolff Companies
$250M Under Construction
Attwater Master-Planned Community
Bold Fox Development
$150M Under Construction
TMEIC Manufacturing Facility
TMEIC Corporation Americas
$65M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth -2.1% 3 percentile
Population Growth +3.5% 98 percentile
Income Growth +9.6% 74 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 33 percentile
Home Price Change -1.8% 16 percentile
Rent Growth -1.5% 3 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 89 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Waller County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Waller County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #945 of 996 counties. Job growth at +3.3% and median household income of $71,643 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Waller County affordable?

Housing in Waller County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $268,200 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $1,109/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Waller County growing or shrinking?

Waller County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.3% clip. Home values shifted -1.8% in the past year.

Are people moving to Waller County?

In significant numbers — 7.47% of Waller County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Hays County, TX 4 Grayson County, TX 3 Wise County, TX 3 Comal County, TX 6 Rockwall County, TX 6 Kerr County, TX 2 Pike County, KY 3 Haywood County, NC 5