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Atascosa County, TX

RANK #898 / 1001 NAT  ·  #48 / 72 TX  ·  POP 51,008

1YR FORECAST: +0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: -12%

Our model projects Atascosa County's housing market at +0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Atascosa County?

Atascosa County ranks #898 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index. Several economic headwinds are weighing on this county's growth outlook. Detailed narrative coming soon.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.9%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
0.9

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 9.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Atascosa County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
51,008
+1.9% YoY
Median Household Income
$70,770
Median Home Value
$174,800
+1.89% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,061
Average Annual Pay
$64,668
+2.0% YoY
Employment
14,528
+1.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.4049
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.01%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
15.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$275,000
Days on Market
108
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
5.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
49.6%
Building Permits (2025)
242
Single-Family Permits
242

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
16.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
74.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.9% 86 percentile
Income Growth +1.9% 31 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 71 percentile
Home Price Change +1.9% 50 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 67 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Atascosa County, TX a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Atascosa County scores just 10/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #898 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +1.2% and median household income of $70,770 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Atascosa County affordable?

By national standards, Atascosa County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $174,800, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.40 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $1,061/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Atascosa County growing or shrinking?

Atascosa County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.2% clip. Home values shifted +1.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Atascosa County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.01% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Atascosa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Tom Green County, TX 9 Johnson County, TX 12 Nacogdoches County, TX 12 Waller County, TX 8 Hays County, TX 8 Cherokee County, TX 13 McMinn County, TN 10 Jones County, MS 10