RANK #699 / 1001 NAT · #39 / 72 TX · POP 183,642
1YR FORECAST: -2.5%
5YR OUTLOOK: +26%
Guadalupe County, Texas, is often recognized for Lake McQueeney, known as the "water ski capital of Texas," and the scenic Guadalupe River that flows through it. Located in south-central Texas, the county sits between Austin and San Antonio, with Seguin serving as the county seat. Many residents commute to nearby San Antonio, which is about 35 miles away. The community offers a mix of suburban and rural settings, with outdoor recreation opportunities along the Guadalupe River, including swimming, fishing, tubing, and canoeing. Guadalupe River State Park provides miles of river frontage and trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding.
Life in Guadalupe County attracts families and young professionals, with public schools generally performing above average. Commute patterns vary, with towns like Cibolo and Schertz aligning with the I-35 corridor for San Antonio access, while Seguin has its own local industries and I-10 rhythm. The economy is experiencing growth, with job increases outpacing the national rate in recent years. Major investment is occurring in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure, contributing to a growing workforce. Educational institutions are expanding to support these industries, preparing residents for high-demand careers.
Guadalupe County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -2.2% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.
See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Moderate climate & terrain
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 18.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
San Marcos Data Center I (CloudBurst & Evolve Holdings)
CloudBurst Data Centers & Evolve Holdings
|
$1,200M | Under Construction |
|
AW Texas Manufacturing Plant
AW Texas (Aisin)
|
$400M | Operating |
|
Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (AAMPO) Transportation Projects (7 projects)
Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (AAMPO)
|
$256M | Proposed |
|
Guadalupe Battery Storage Project
Undisclosed (Cleanview tracks developer)
|
$211M | Planned |
|
Rockridge Solar
Undisclosed (Cleanview tracks developer)
|
$211M | Planned |
|
Continental Structural Plastics, Inc. Manufacturing Plant
Continental Structural Plastics, Inc.
|
$65M | Operating |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
At 30/100, Guadalupe County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $92,375 combined with job growth of +2.0% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.
Housing in Guadalupe County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $304,400 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.30, with rents averaging $1,517/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.
Guadalupe County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.0% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.0% clip. Home values shifted -2.2% in the past year.
In significant numbers — 6.86% of Guadalupe County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.