30 / 100

Guadalupe County, TX

RANK #699 / 1001 NAT  ·  #39 / 72 TX  ·  POP 183,642

1YR FORECAST: -2.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +26%

Our model projects Guadalupe County's housing market at -2.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Guadalupe County?

Guadalupe County, Texas, is often recognized for Lake McQueeney, known as the "water ski capital of Texas," and the scenic Guadalupe River that flows through it. Located in south-central Texas, the county sits between Austin and San Antonio, with Seguin serving as the county seat. Many residents commute to nearby San Antonio, which is about 35 miles away. The community offers a mix of suburban and rural settings, with outdoor recreation opportunities along the Guadalupe River, including swimming, fishing, tubing, and canoeing. Guadalupe River State Park provides miles of river frontage and trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding.

Life in Guadalupe County attracts families and young professionals, with public schools generally performing above average. Commute patterns vary, with towns like Cibolo and Schertz aligning with the I-35 corridor for San Antonio access, while Seguin has its own local industries and I-10 rhythm. The economy is experiencing growth, with job increases outpacing the national rate in recent years. Major investment is occurring in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure, contributing to a growing workforce. Educational institutions are expanding to support these industries, preparing residents for high-demand careers.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Guadalupe County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -2.2% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
18.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-2.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.6

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 18.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Caterpillar Manufacturing
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Seguin ISD Education
  3. 3
    Guadalupe Regional Medical Center Healthcare
  4. 4
    CMC Steel Texas Manufacturing
    500+
  5. 5
    Tyson Foods Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Alamo Group Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Guadalupe County Government
  8. 8
    Vitesco Technologies Manufacturing
    250+
  9. 9
    Navarro ISD Education
  10. 10
    Texas Lutheran University Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Guadalupe County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
183,642
+2.96% YoY
Median Household Income
$92,375
Median Home Value
$304,400
-2.2% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,517
Average Annual Pay
$60,990
+3.0% YoY
Employment
49,518
+2.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3035
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.86%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
31.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$298,290
Days on Market
79
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
49.8%
Building Permits (2025)
1,697
Single-Family Permits
1,546

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
55.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$2,343M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
San Marcos Data Center I (CloudBurst & Evolve Holdings)
CloudBurst Data Centers & Evolve Holdings
$1,200M Under Construction
AW Texas Manufacturing Plant
AW Texas (Aisin)
$400M Operating
Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (AAMPO) Transportation Projects (7 projects)
Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (AAMPO)
$256M Proposed
Guadalupe Battery Storage Project
Undisclosed (Cleanview tracks developer)
$211M Planned
Rockridge Solar
Undisclosed (Cleanview tracks developer)
$211M Planned
Continental Structural Plastics, Inc. Manufacturing Plant
Continental Structural Plastics, Inc.
$65M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +3.0% 94 percentile
Income Growth -1.5% 2 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 54 percentile
Home Price Change -2.2% 11 percentile
Rent Growth +0.7% 16 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 55 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Guadalupe County, TX a good place to move to?

At 30/100, Guadalupe County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $92,375 combined with job growth of +2.0% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Guadalupe County affordable?

Housing in Guadalupe County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $304,400 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.30, with rents averaging $1,517/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Guadalupe County growing or shrinking?

Guadalupe County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.0% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.0% clip. Home values shifted -2.2% in the past year.

Are people moving to Guadalupe County?

In significant numbers — 6.86% of Guadalupe County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Angelina County, TX 29 McLennan County, TX 32 Tarrant County, TX 32 Polk County, TX 28 Starr County, TX 33 Ector County, TX 26 Indian River County, FL 30 York County, ME 30