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Guadalupe County, TX

Schertz-Cibolo

RANK #729 / 996 NAT  ·  #37 / 69 TX  ·  POP 173,828

1YR FORECAST: -0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

Our model projects Guadalupe County's housing market at -0.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Guadalupe County?

Guadalupe County, Texas, is often recognized for Lake McQueeney, known as the "water ski capital of Texas," and the scenic Guadalupe River that flows through it. Located in south-central Texas, the county sits between Austin and San Antonio, with Seguin serving as the county seat. Many residents commute to nearby San Antonio, which is about 35 miles away. The community offers a mix of suburban and rural settings, with outdoor recreation opportunities along the Guadalupe River, including swimming, fishing, tubing, and canoeing. Guadalupe River State Park provides miles of river frontage and trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding.

Life in Guadalupe County attracts families and young professionals, with public schools generally performing above average. Commute patterns vary, with towns like Cibolo and Schertz aligning with the I-35 corridor for San Antonio access, while Seguin has its own local industries and I-10 rhythm. The economy is experiencing growth, with job increases outpacing the national rate in recent years. Major investment is occurring in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, energy, and infrastructure, contributing to a growing workforce. Educational institutions are expanding to support these industries, preparing residents for high-demand careers.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.6x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.2%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-2.6%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
0.6

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 3.6x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Caterpillar Manufacturing
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Seguin ISD Education
  3. 3
    Guadalupe Regional Medical Center Healthcare
  4. 4
    CMC Steel Texas Manufacturing
    500+
  5. 5
    Tyson Foods Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Alamo Group Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Guadalupe County Government
  8. 8
    Vitesco Technologies Manufacturing
    250+
  9. 9
    Navarro ISD Education
  10. 10
    Texas Lutheran University Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Guadalupe County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
173,828
+2.57% YoY
Median Household Income
$88,111
Median Home Value
$258,600
-2.6% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,278
Average Annual Pay
$59,236
+3.6% YoY
Employment
48,527
+2.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3407
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.18%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
29.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$261,499
Days on Market
123
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.7
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.5%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
8.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
37.9%
Building Permits (2024)
2,062
Single-Family Permits
1,905

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
55.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$2,343M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
San Marcos Data Center I (CloudBurst & Evolve Holdings)
CloudBurst Data Centers & Evolve Holdings
$1,200M Under Construction
AW Texas Manufacturing Plant
AW Texas (Aisin)
$400M Operating
Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (AAMPO) Transportation Projects (7 projects)
Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (AAMPO)
$256M Proposed
Guadalupe Battery Storage Project
Undisclosed (Cleanview tracks developer)
$211M Planned
Rockridge Solar
Undisclosed (Cleanview tracks developer)
$211M Planned
Continental Structural Plastics, Inc. Manufacturing Plant
Continental Structural Plastics, Inc.
$65M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.2% 85 percentile
Population Growth +2.6% 93 percentile
Income Growth +10.1% 80 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 57 percentile
Home Price Change -2.6% 11 percentile
Rent Growth +0.7% 16 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 56 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Guadalupe County, TX a good place to move to?

At 26/100, Guadalupe County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $88,111 combined with job growth of +2.4% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Guadalupe County affordable?

Housing in Guadalupe County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $258,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.34, with rents averaging $1,278/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Guadalupe County growing or shrinking?

Guadalupe County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.6% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.4% clip. Home values shifted -2.6% in the past year.

Are people moving to Guadalupe County?

In significant numbers — 5.18% of Guadalupe County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Wilson County, TX 27 Brazos County, TX 25 Parker County, TX 23 Hood County, TX 30 Hidalgo County, TX 30 Montgomery County, TX 20 Kent County, DE 26 Dorchester County, SC 26