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Montgomery County, MD

RANK #931 / 1001 NAT  ·  #18 / 18 MD  ·  POP 1,065,949

1YR FORECAST: -1.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

Our model projects Montgomery County's housing market at -1.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Montgomery County?

Bethesda, a notable town in Montgomery County, Maryland, is recognized for its dining, shopping, and medical centers. The county itself is located directly north of Washington, D.C., and offers a mix of urban and suburban environments. Commuting to D.C. is possible via the Metro Red Line, Metrobus, and Ride On bus services, with many residents utilizing public transit. The county provides extensive green spaces, including over 400 parks and trails like those found at Rock Creek Regional Park and Sugarloaf Mountain, offering opportunities for hiking, biking, and water activities.

Life in Montgomery County appeals to families, professionals, and retirees due to its quality of life. The Montgomery County Public Schools district is Maryland's largest and is recognized for its educational offerings. The local economy is driven by sectors such as biotechnology, technology, and advanced communications, with significant investment flowing into these areas. The county also has a strong focus on workforce development and sustainable transportation initiatives.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Montgomery County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -1.5% YoY, population +0.8%, wages +2.0%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
15.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-1.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-0.6

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
23x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 15.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    National Institutes of Health (NIH) Government
  3. 3
    Lockheed Martin Technology
  4. 4
    Adventist HealthCare Healthcare
    5,000+
  5. 5
    Marriott International Hospitality
    2,500+
  6. 6
    Holy Cross Hospital Healthcare
  7. 7
    Giant Food Retail
  8. 8
    Kaiser Foundation Health Plan Healthcare
  9. 9
    MedImmune Healthcare
    1,000+
  10. 10
    GEICO Finance

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Montgomery County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,065,949
+0.79% YoY
Median Household Income
$132,450
Median Home Value
$640,300
-1.54% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,068
Average Annual Pay
$96,366
+2.0% YoY
Employment
456,246
-1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2069
Near national average
Migration Inflow
1.46%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
60.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$700,000
Days on Market
32
Active market
Months of Supply
2.5
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.7%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
44.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
28.7%
Building Permits (2025)
1,411
Single-Family Permits
804

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
4.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
47.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
42.3
Good
Good Air Days
73%
783 of 1,073 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
9
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
42
2022
43
2023
42
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$7,923M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
County-Wide Capital Improvements Program (CIP)
Montgomery County Government
$6,600M Planned
Dickerson Data Center
Undisclosed (Terra Energy owns the former plant site)
$1,000M Proposed
X-Energy Headquarters and Advanced Reactor Development
X-Energy
$223M Under Construction
Brookville Smart Energy Bus Depot Microgrid
AlphaStruxure (Schneider Electric & Carlyle JV)
$50M Operating
Watkins Mill Station (Residential/Mixed-Use)
Pulte Homes
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 58 percentile
Income Growth +2.9% 54 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 61 percentile
Home Price Change -1.5% 14 percentile
Rent Growth -0.1% 10 percentile
Price/Rent 23x 6 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Montgomery County, MD a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Montgomery County scores just 6/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #931 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -1.3% and median household income of $132,450 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Montgomery County affordable?

Montgomery County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $640,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.21 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $2,068/month on average.

Is Montgomery County growing or shrinking?

Montgomery County is attracting residents (population +0.8% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -1.3%. Housing values changed -1.5% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are many people relocating to Montgomery County?

Not particularly — 1.46% of Montgomery County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Howard County, MD 10 Baltimore city, MD 12 St. Mary's County, MD 17 Baltimore County, MD 18 Anne Arundel County, MD 18 Frederick County, MD 19 El Paso County, CO 6 Gwinnett County, GA 7