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St. Mary's County, MD

District 8

RANK #753 / 996 NAT  ·  #8 / 18 MD  ·  POP 113,814

1YR FORECAST: +0.4%

5YR OUTLOOK: +17%

Our model projects St. Mary's County's housing market at +0.4% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why St. Mary's County?

Maryland's first county, St. Mary's County, holds the distinction of being the birthplace of religious freedom in North America, established by English Catholics in 1634. Leonardtown, the county seat and only incorporated town, offers waterfront access and an Arts and Entertainment District. Located in Southern Maryland, the county is a peninsula bordered by the Chesapeake Bay, the Patuxent River, and the Potomac River, providing over 500 miles of shoreline. This geography lends itself to extensive outdoor recreation, including fishing, kayaking, and exploring numerous state parks like Point Lookout State Park and Greenwell State Park. Commute options include local transit services and Maryland Transit Administration commuter bus routes to Washington, D.C.

Life in St. Mary's County blends a traditional, water-oriented lifestyle with a growing technology sector. The community is often described as close-knit, particularly for families. St. Mary's County Public Schools serve over 17,000 students across 32 schools, including high schools, middle schools, elementary schools, and a vocational technical school. The local economy is significantly influenced by the Naval Air Station Patuxent River, a major employer, and a concentration of aerospace and defense contractors. This has fostered growth in aviation, advanced manufacturing, and autonomous systems industries. Educational institutions like St. Mary's College of Maryland and the College of Southern Maryland also contribute to the area's economic and community landscape.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.1x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+2.8%

Above national median

Home Prices
+2.4%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
0.5

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.1x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Naval Air Station Patuxent River (NAS Pax River) Military
    25,000+
  2. 2
    MedStar St. Mary's Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    DynCorp International Other
  4. 4
    Wyle Technology
    500+
  5. 5
    BAE Systems Technology
  6. 6
    St. Mary's College of Maryland Education
  7. 7
    Lockheed Martin Technology
  8. 8
    Northrop Grumman Technology
    250+
  9. 9
    Boeing Technology
  10. 10
    HMR of Maryland – Charlotte Hall Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

St. Mary's County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
113,814
+0.53% YoY
Median Household Income
$113,668
Median Home Value
$376,900
+2.43% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,595
Average Annual Pay
$85,381
+4.0% YoY
Employment
49,113
+3.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3016
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.2%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
34.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$450,000
Days on Market
64
Slower market
Months of Supply
2.5
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.1%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
29.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
13.3%
Building Permits (2024)
265
Single-Family Permits
265

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
10.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
81.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$237M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Southern Maryland Autonomous Research and Technology (SMART) Building
University Systems of Maryland at Southern Maryland
$87M Operating
The Meadows Townhouse Community
Turner Development and Map Properties
$50M Planned
County Capital Improvement Program (Schools, Roads, Public Facilities)
St. Mary's County Government
$50M Planned/Under Construction
Broadband Infrastructure Expansion
Various (Breezeline, Comcast, ThinkBig, Verizon FIOS)
$50M Under Construction/Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.8% 52 percentile
Population Growth +0.5% 54 percentile
Income Growth +10.5% 86 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.4% 25 percentile
Home Price Change +2.4% 64 percentile
Rent Growth +2.2% 37 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 18 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is St. Mary's County, MD a good place to move to?

At 24/100, St. Mary's County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $113,668 combined with job growth of +3.2% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is St. Mary's County affordable?

Housing in St. Mary's County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $376,900 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.30, with rents averaging $1,595/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is St. Mary's County growing or shrinking?

St. Mary's County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +0.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.2% clip. Home values shifted +2.4% in the past year.

Are people moving to St. Mary's County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.2% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests St. Mary's County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Baltimore County, MD 29 Baltimore city, MD 17 Cecil County, MD 16 Harford County, MD 16 Calvert County, MD 33 Anne Arundel County, MD 12 Monongalia County, WV 24 Roanoke city, VA 24