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St. Mary's County, MD

RANK #825 / 1001 NAT  ·  #15 / 18 MD  ·  POP 115,126

1YR FORECAST: +0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +22%

Our model projects St. Mary's County's housing market at +0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why St. Mary's County?

Maryland's first county, St. Mary's County, holds the distinction of being the birthplace of religious freedom in North America, established by English Catholics in 1634. Leonardtown, the county seat and only incorporated town, offers waterfront access and an Arts and Entertainment District. Located in Southern Maryland, the county is a peninsula bordered by the Chesapeake Bay, the Patuxent River, and the Potomac River, providing over 500 miles of shoreline. This geography lends itself to extensive outdoor recreation, including fishing, kayaking, and exploring numerous state parks like Point Lookout State Park and Greenwell State Park. Commute options include local transit services and Maryland Transit Administration commuter bus routes to Washington, D.C.

Life in St. Mary's County blends a traditional, water-oriented lifestyle with a growing technology sector. The community is often described as close-knit, particularly for families. St. Mary's County Public Schools serve over 17,000 students across 32 schools, including high schools, middle schools, elementary schools, and a vocational technical school. The local economy is significantly influenced by the Naval Air Station Patuxent River, a major employer, and a concentration of aerospace and defense contractors. This has fostered growth in aviation, advanced manufacturing, and autonomous systems industries. Educational institutions like St. Mary's College of Maryland and the College of Southern Maryland also contribute to the area's economic and community landscape.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

St. Mary's County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +3.1% YoY, population +0.7%, wages +2.5%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+3.1%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
0.5

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 11.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Naval Air Station Patuxent River (NAS Pax River) Military
    25,000+
  2. 2
    MedStar St. Mary's Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    DynCorp International Other
  4. 4
    Wyle Technology
    500+
  5. 5
    BAE Systems Technology
  6. 6
    St. Mary's College of Maryland Education
  7. 7
    Lockheed Martin Technology
  8. 8
    Northrop Grumman Technology
    250+
  9. 9
    Boeing Technology
  10. 10
    HMR of Maryland – Charlotte Hall Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

St. Mary's County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
115,126
+0.66% YoY
Median Household Income
$119,446
Median Home Value
$407,600
+3.08% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,747
Average Annual Pay
$87,520
+2.5% YoY
Employment
47,937
-2.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.293
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.7%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
36.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$463,275
Days on Market
40
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.6
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.5%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
34.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
22.2%
Building Permits (2025)
282
Single-Family Permits
264

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
10.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
81.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$237M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Southern Maryland Autonomous Research and Technology (SMART) Building
University Systems of Maryland at Southern Maryland
$87M Operating
The Meadows Townhouse Community
Turner Development and Map Properties
$50M Planned
County Capital Improvement Program (Schools, Roads, Public Facilities)
St. Mary's County Government
$50M Planned/Under Construction
Broadband Infrastructure Expansion
Various (Breezeline, Comcast, ThinkBig, Verizon FIOS)
$50M Under Construction/Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.7% 51 percentile
Income Growth +4.2% 82 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 58 percentile
Home Price Change +3.1% 68 percentile
Rent Growth +0.8% 18 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 22 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is St. Mary's County, MD a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — St. Mary's County scores just 17/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #825 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -2.4% and median household income of $119,446 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is St. Mary's County affordable?

Housing in St. Mary's County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $407,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $1,747/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is St. Mary's County growing or shrinking?

St. Mary's County is attracting residents (population +0.7% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -2.4%. Housing values changed +3.1% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to St. Mary's County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.7% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests St. Mary's County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Baltimore County, MD 18 Anne Arundel County, MD 18 Frederick County, MD 19 Cecil County, MD 21 Baltimore city, MD 12 Howard County, MD 10 Sandoval County, NM 17 Albemarle County, VA 18