37 / 100

Prince William County, VA

Brentsville

RANK #623 / 996 NAT  ·  #19 / 37 VA  ·  POP 481,114

1YR FORECAST: +0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

#3 Most Overvalued
Prince William County's housing market is projected to grow +0.3% over the next year, below the national average.

[01] Why Prince William County?

Historic Occoquan, a riverside mill town with a charming shopping district, offers a glimpse into Prince William County's past and present. Located in Northern Virginia, about 25 miles southwest of Washington, D.C., the county balances suburban and rural areas. Commuting to Washington, D.C., or other Northern Virginia employment centers is possible via the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) and OmniRide bus services, which utilize I-66 and I-95 express lanes. The county features over 4,000 acres of parkland and more than 100 miles of trails, including Prince William Forest Park, the largest protected natural area in the D.C. region.

Life in Prince William County often involves families and professionals, many of whom commute to nearby cities. The public school system is the second largest in Virginia and is recognized for its programs and staff. The local economy is diversifying, with growth in sectors like information communication technology, life sciences, and specialized logistics. There is ongoing investment in commercial and residential redevelopment, particularly along established corridors, and infrastructure improvements are underway to support this growth.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
24.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.7%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-0.9

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 24.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Prince William County School Board Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    County of Prince William Government
    5,000+
  3. 3
    U.S. Department of Defense Military
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Walmart Retail
  5. 5
    Sentara Healthcare Healthcare
  6. 6
    Morale Welfare and Recreation Government
  7. 7
    Target Corporation Retail
    500+
  8. 8
    Wegmans Store #07 Retail
  9. 9
    Northern Virginia Community College Education
  10. 10
    Micron Technology Technology
    250+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Prince William County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
481,114
+0.82% YoY
Median Household Income
$123,193
Median Home Value
$472,000
+0.7% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,907
Average Annual Pay
$64,447
+4.3% YoY
Employment
143,345
+2.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.261
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.11%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
43.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$550,000
Days on Market
42
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.2
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.0%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
34.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
15.4%
Building Permits (2024)
1,418
Single-Family Permits
793

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
7.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
44.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
35.7
Good
Good Air Days
93%
999 of 1,074 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
4
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
35
2022
35
2023
37
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,600M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Digital Gateway Data Center Complex (37 data centers, 14 electrical substations)
QTS and Compass Datacenters
$2,000M Proposed
County Capital Projects (Judicial Center, Crisis Receiving Center, Homeless Navigation Center, etc.)
Prince William County
$1,300M Planned
Hoadly Square and Maple Valley Grove Residential Developments (550 units combined)
J.R. Real Estate Group
$150M Planned
Manassas Battery Energy Storage System (24.2 MVA / 105.315 MWh)
Lightshift Energy (for NOVEC)
$50M Planned
Gainesville Battery Energy Storage System (20 MW / 90.3 MWh)
Lightshift Energy (for NOVEC)
$50M Planned
Prince William County Landfill Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facility
OPAL Fuels
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 65 percentile
Income Growth +8.2% 41 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 53 percentile
Home Price Change +0.7% 41 percentile
Rent Growth +2.4% 40 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 17 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Prince William County, VA a good place to move to?

At 37/100, Prince William County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $123,193 combined with job growth of +2.7% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Prince William County affordable?

Housing in Prince William County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $472,000 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $1,907/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Prince William County growing or shrinking?

Prince William County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +0.8% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.7% clip. Home values shifted +0.7% in the past year.

Are people moving to Prince William County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.11% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Prince William County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Chesterfield County, VA 37 Virginia Beach city, VA 37 Spotsylvania County, VA 38 Harrisonburg city, VA 39 Bedford County, VA 40 Frederick County, VA 40 Volusia County, FL 37 Richmond County, NY 38