9 / 100

Lynchburg city, VA

RANK #894 / 996 NAT  ·  #32 / 37 VA  ·  POP 79,166

1YR FORECAST: +0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

Our model projects Lynchburg city's housing market at +0.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Lynchburg city?

Lynchburg, Virginia, known as the "City of Seven Hills," is situated in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains along the James River. This location offers scenic views and outdoor recreation opportunities, including hiking and biking on trails like the Blackwater Creek Trail and access to the James River for kayaking and fishing. The city is approximately an hour from Roanoke and 1.5 hours from Charlottesville, with commute times across the city averaging around 17.5 minutes. Its downtown area is walkable, featuring historic districts and a revitalized riverfront.

Life in Lynchburg is characterized by a blend of historic charm and modern conveniences, appealing to families, young professionals, and retirees. The Lynchburg City Public Schools system serves nearly 8,000 students and offers diverse programs. The local economy is driven by sectors such as nuclear technology, advanced energy, and manufacturing, with ongoing investments in these areas. The city also benefits from a lower cost of living compared to many other Virginia cities.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.5x

Above national median (4.7x)

Home Prices
-0.4%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-0.4

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.5x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Liberty University Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Centra Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  3. 3
    BWX Technologies Manufacturing
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Lynchburg City Schools Education
  5. 5
    Shentel Technology
  6. 6
    City of Lynchburg Government
  7. 7
    Barton Malow Other
  8. 8
    Genworth Financial Finance
    500+
  9. 9
    Southern Air Other
  10. 10
    Horizon Behavioral Health Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lynchburg city U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
79,166
+0.24% YoY
Median Household Income
$56,243
Median Home Value
$196,000
-0.37% 12mo
Median Rent
$972
Average Annual Pay
$58,705
+4.6% YoY
Employment
47,689
-1.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.287
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
8.77%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Building Permits (2024)
472
Single-Family Permits
232

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
92.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$200M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
James Energy Center & Quarry Energy Center (Battery Energy Storage Systems)
East Point Energy
$100M Under Construction
Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing Plant
Applied Materials Inc.
$100M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.2% 40 percentile
Income Growth +4.1% 2 percentile
Vacancy Rate 3.5% 1 percentile
Home Price Change -0.4% 27 percentile
Rent Growth +3.0% 51 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 59 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lynchburg city, VA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Lynchburg city scores just 9/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #894 of 996 counties. Job growth at -1.7% and median household income of $56,243 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Lynchburg city affordable?

Housing in Lynchburg city is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $196,000 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $972/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Lynchburg city growing or shrinking?

Lynchburg city's job market is contracting (-1.7% YoY) while population is roughly stable (+0.2% change). Home values are -0.4% over the past 12 months. Hiring headwinds without an offsetting exodus — residents are staying, but local employers are shedding payroll.

Are people moving to Lynchburg city?

In significant numbers — 8.77% of Lynchburg city's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Stafford County, VA 10 Fairfax County, VA 8 James City County, VA 8 Alexandria city, VA 7 Pittsylvania County, VA 14 Loudoun County, VA 4 Walton County, FL 9 Kauai County, HI 9