24 / 100

Lynchburg city, VA

RANK #757 / 1001 NAT  ·  #26 / 37 VA  ·  POP 79,497

1YR FORECAST: +0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +15%

Our model projects Lynchburg city's housing market at +0.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Lynchburg city?

Lynchburg, Virginia, known as the "City of Seven Hills," is situated in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains along the James River. This location offers scenic views and outdoor recreation opportunities, including hiking and biking on trails like the Blackwater Creek Trail and access to the James River for kayaking and fishing. The city is approximately an hour from Roanoke and 1.5 hours from Charlottesville, with commute times across the city averaging around 17.5 minutes. Its downtown area is walkable, featuring historic districts and a revitalized riverfront.

Life in Lynchburg is characterized by a blend of historic charm and modern conveniences, appealing to families, young professionals, and retirees. The Lynchburg City Public Schools system serves nearly 8,000 students and offers diverse programs. The local economy is driven by sectors such as nuclear technology, advanced energy, and manufacturing, with ongoing investments in these areas. The city also benefits from a lower cost of living compared to many other Virginia cities.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Lynchburg city's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.2% YoY, population +0.3%, wages +5.6%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.2x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
+0.2%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
-0.4

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.2x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Liberty University Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Centra Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  3. 3
    BWX Technologies Manufacturing
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Lynchburg City Schools Education
  5. 5
    Shentel Technology
  6. 6
    City of Lynchburg Government
  7. 7
    Barton Malow Other
  8. 8
    Genworth Financial Finance
    500+
  9. 9
    Southern Air Other
  10. 10
    Horizon Behavioral Health Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lynchburg city U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
79,497
+0.31% YoY
Median Household Income
$57,947
Median Home Value
$229,800
+0.21% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,073
Average Annual Pay
$61,983
+5.6% YoY
Employment
47,722
+0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2522
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
8.49%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
38.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Building Permits (2025)
213
Single-Family Permits
189

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.5
Firearm Fatalities
12.6
per 100K · nat avg 13.4
Injury Deaths
92.5
per 100K · nat avg 83.6
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate
10-Year Trend
Up 137% since 2015
homicide rate, 2015 → 2025

Source: Homicide rates from CDC/NCHS vital-statistics mortality data — a multi-year average that stabilizes counts in smaller counties — compiled in the County Health Rankings 2025 release. Rates per 100,000 population; U.S. average ≈ 6.5. Grade reflects homicide rate relative to the national average. Learn more →

See where Lynchburg city stands nationally: safest large counties in America · highest homicide-rate counties.

[06] Capital Investment

$200M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
James Energy Center & Quarry Energy Center (Battery Energy Storage Systems)
East Point Energy
$100M Under Construction
Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing Plant
Applied Materials Inc.
$100M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.3% 35 percentile
Home Price Change +0.2% 24 percentile
Rent Growth +2.3% 35 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 52 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lynchburg city, VA a good place to move to?

At 24/100, Lynchburg city faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $57,947 combined with job growth of +0.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Lynchburg city affordable?

Housing in Lynchburg city is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $229,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.25, with rents averaging $1,073/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Lynchburg city growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Lynchburg city are both close to flat — population +0.3% YoY and jobs +0.1%. Home values shifted +0.2% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Lynchburg city?

In significant numbers — 8.49% of Lynchburg city's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Chesterfield County, VA 24 Washington County, VA 25 Frederick County, VA 22 Henrico County, VA 20 Roanoke city, VA 17 Prince William County, VA 32 Walker County, TX 24 Lake County, CA 24