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Island County, WA

RANK #815 / 1001 NAT  ·  #12 / 21 WA  ·  POP 86,836

1YR FORECAST: +0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +23%

#2 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Island County's housing market at +0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Island County?

Island County, Washington, distinguishes itself through its unique geography, being composed entirely of islands, including the prominent Whidbey and Camano Islands. Located north of Seattle, Whidbey Island is about 27 miles from the city. The county seat, Coupeville, is a historic seaport town on Whidbey Island, known for its 19th-century architecture and views of Puget Sound and the Olympic Mountains. The community offers a mild, temperate climate due to the moderating effects of water and sheltering mountains, with Central Whidbey receiving notably less rain than Seattle. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with 54 park facilities across the islands, offering extensive trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, along with opportunities for boating, fishing, and beachcombing. Deception Pass State Park, with its cliffs, bluffs, and beaches, is a notable landmark.

Life in Island County is shaped by its island setting and the presence of Naval Air Station Whidbey Island in Oak Harbor, the county's largest city. The Naval Air Station is a major employer and economic driver, supporting thousands of direct and indirect jobs. While many residents are retirees or part-time residents drawn to the scenery and quality of life, others commute to jobs outside the county, often utilizing the ferry system. Island Transit provides fare-free bus service across Whidbey and Camano Islands, including connections to ferry terminals. The county's economy, while influenced by the military, also sees activity in tourism, service industries, and real estate. Public education is served by districts such as Oak Harbor, Coupeville, and South Whidbey.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Island County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +0.8% runs above the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
43.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.8%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
3.4

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 43.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    US Navy (Naval Air Station Whidbey Island) Military
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Oak Harbor School District Education
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Boeing Manufacturing
    500+
  4. 4
    WhidbeyHealth Healthcare
  5. 5
    Island County Government Government
    250+
  6. 6
    Coupeville School District Education
  7. 7
    Walmart Retail
    100+
  8. 8
    City of Oak Harbor Government
  9. 9
    Safeway Retail
  10. 10
    South Whidbey School District Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Island County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
86,836
+0.1% YoY
Median Household Income
$90,551
Median Home Value
$593,300
+0.79% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,662
Average Annual Pay
$64,709
+9.8% YoY
Employment
18,166
-0.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1526
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.67%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
36.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$659,080
Days on Market
18
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
3.2
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.2%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
32.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.8%
Building Permits (2025)
209
Single-Family Permits
181

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
13.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
78.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.1% 26 percentile
Income Growth +2.5% 42 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 27 percentile
Home Price Change +0.8% 36 percentile
Rent Growth +6.1% 87 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 5 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[07] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Island County, WA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Island County scores just 18/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #815 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -0.6% and median household income of $90,551 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Island County affordable?

Island County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $593,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.15 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,662/month on average.

Is Island County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Island County are both close to flat — population +0.1% YoY and jobs -0.6%. Home values shifted +0.8% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Island County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.67% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Island County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[08] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Skagit County, WA 19 Pierce County, WA 17 Thurston County, WA 17 Spokane County, WA 16 Chelan County, WA 21 Clark County, WA 14 Putnam County, TN 18 Pender County, NC 18