29 / 100

Josephine County, OR

Grants Pass

RANK #705 / 996 NAT  ·  #13 / 18 OR  ·  POP 87,994

1YR FORECAST: -1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +19%

#46 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Josephine County's housing market at -1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Josephine County?

Josephine County, Oregon, distinguishes itself with the Oregon Caves National Monument, often called the "Marble Halls of Oregon," a significant natural landmark drawing visitors to its unique limestone formations. Located in southwestern Oregon, bordering California, the county seat of Grants Pass is approximately a 30-minute drive from Medford, the nearest larger city with an international airport. The community offers a relaxed pace, with a strong emphasis on outdoor recreation. The Rogue River, a federally designated Wild and Scenic River, is a central feature, providing opportunities for whitewater rafting, fishing, and scenic boat trips through Hellgate Canyon. Numerous county parks, including Whitehorse and Indian Mary, offer camping, hiking, bird sanctuaries, and river access. The region's diverse landscapes include pine-oak woodlands, riparian habitats, and mountainous terrain within the Siskiyou Mountains and Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest.

Life in Josephine County often appeals to those seeking a connection to nature and a quieter lifestyle, including retirees and individuals interested in remote work or self-sufficiency. The local economy, historically rooted in gold mining and timber, has shifted, with a current focus on small businesses and a growing wine industry, sharing the Rogue Valley and Applegate Valley appellations with neighboring Jackson County. While the county has faced economic challenges, including a decline in timber revenue, efforts are underway to attract new industries and stabilize the business environment. Commute times average around 21.5 minutes, with most residents driving alone, though Josephine Community Transit provides public transportation within Grants Pass and to nearby towns. The Three Rivers School District serves over 4,000 students across multiple elementary, middle, and high schools, with graduation rates exceeding the state average.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.2%

Above national median

Home Prices
-0.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.3

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 10.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Rogue Community College Education
    500+
  2. 2
    Three Rivers Medical Center Healthcare
  3. 3
    Grants Pass School District Education
  4. 4
    Three Rivers School District Education
  5. 5
    Fire Mountain Gems Other
  6. 6
    Walmart Retail
    250+
  7. 7
    Josephine County Government
  8. 8
    MasterBrand Cabinets Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Barrett Business Services Other
  10. 10
    First Call Resolution Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Josephine County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
87,994
+0.35% YoY
Median Household Income
$56,068
Median Home Value
$353,800
-0.89% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,093
Average Annual Pay
$49,117
+3.0% YoY
Employment
31,420
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1585
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.15%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
18.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$380,000
Days on Market
78
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
11.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
26.6%
Building Permits (2024)
202
Single-Family Permits
174

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
8.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
28.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
133.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
39.7
Good
Good Air Days
60%
653 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
65
Includes 11 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
36
2022
39
2023
44
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.2% 60 percentile
Population Growth +0.3% 45 percentile
Income Growth +8.4% 46 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 86 percentile
Home Price Change -0.9% 22 percentile
Rent Growth +4.5% 74 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 12 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Josephine County, OR a good place to move to?

At 29/100, Josephine County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $56,068 combined with job growth of +1.3% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Josephine County affordable?

Josephine County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $353,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.16 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,093/month on average.

Is Josephine County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Josephine County are hiring — job growth of +1.3% — but the population is close to flat (+0.3% YoY). Home values moved -0.9% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Josephine County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.15% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Josephine County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Multnomah County, OR 29 Marion County, OR 32 Clackamas County, OR 32 Douglas County, OR 36 Umatilla County, OR 22 Benton County, OR 20 Tompkins County, NY 29 Limestone County, AL 28