31 / 100

Wagoner County, OK

RANK #686 / 1001 NAT  ·  #14 / 15 OK  ·  POP 86,609

1YR FORECAST: +1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +26%

#19 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Wagoner County's housing market at +1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Wagoner County?

Wagoner County, Oklahoma, is defined by its connection to Fort Gibson Lake, a major draw for outdoor enthusiasts seeking fishing, boating, swimming, and hiking opportunities. Located in northeastern Oklahoma, the county sits southeast of Tulsa, offering a blend of small-town character with access to metropolitan amenities. Commutes to Tulsa are manageable, with options including personal vehicles and the Ki Bois Area Transit System (KATS) for public transportation. The community maintains a relaxed pace, with towns like Coweta and Porter contributing to the local identity.

Life in Wagoner County often appeals to families and young professionals, with public schools generally performing above average. The county's economy is experiencing growth, with recent efforts focused on attracting and supporting businesses, including manufacturing. While a proposed data center in Coweta was recently withdrawn, the county continues to pursue economic development through various initiatives and partnerships. Residents benefit from a strong sense of community and a lower cost of living compared to larger cities.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Wagoner County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +2.8% YoY, population +2.7%, wages +3.6%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
30.7x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+2.8%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
0.1

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 30.7x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Wagoner Public Schools Education
    500+
  2. 2
    Coweta Public Schools Education
  3. 3
    Wagoner Community Hospital Healthcare
    100+
  4. 4
    Zeeco Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Koweta Indian Health Center Healthcare
  6. 6
    Unarco Manufacturing
  7. 7
    DMI Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Gavco Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Continental Industries Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Molded Products Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Wagoner County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
86,609
+2.69% YoY
Median Household Income
$81,207
Median Home Value
$234,800
+2.79% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,068
Average Annual Pay
$56,996
+3.6% YoY
Employment
11,624
+3.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3459
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.26%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
27.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$298,000
Days on Market
39
Active market
Months of Supply
2.3
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.7%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
13.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
27.9%
Building Permits (2025)
680
Single-Family Permits
680

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
17.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
81.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$694M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Persica Solar Project
NextEra Energy Resources
$335M Proposed
Wagoner Battery/Storage
Undisclosed
$199M Planned
Wagoner Solar
Undisclosed
$160M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.7% 93 percentile
Income Growth +3.4% 66 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 78 percentile
Home Price Change +2.8% 65 percentile
Rent Growth +1.7% 30 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 88 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Wagoner County, OK a good place to move to?

At 31/100, Wagoner County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $81,207 combined with job growth of +3.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Wagoner County affordable?

Housing in Wagoner County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $234,800 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.35, with rents averaging $1,068/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Wagoner County growing or shrinking?

Wagoner County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.7% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.1% clip. Home values shifted +2.8% in the past year.

Are people moving to Wagoner County?

In significant numbers — 5.26% of Wagoner County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Washington County, OK 39 Canadian County, OK 23 Cleveland County, OK 43 Pottawatomie County, OK 43 Oklahoma County, OK 55 Creek County, OK 58 Navajo County, AZ 31 Gibson County, TN 31