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Maui County, HI

RANK #877 / 1001 NAT  ·  POP 164,522

1YR FORECAST: -1.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +20%

#14 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Maui County's housing market at -1.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Maui County?

Maui County, encompassing the islands of Maui, Lānaʻi, and Molokaʻi, offers a distinctive lifestyle rooted in its natural environment and strong community ties. Locals often highlight the island's unique culture and the relaxed pace of life. The county seat, Wailuku, is known for its historic character and cultural sites, while towns like Paia offer a bohemian surf town atmosphere. Commuting across Maui is primarily done by car, though the Maui Bus public transit system provides routes connecting various communities, including Central, South, and West Maui. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with opportunities for surfing, kayaking, hiking through bamboo forests to waterfalls, and snorkeling with sea turtles.

Life in Maui County blends modern amenities with a focus on sustainability and connection to the land. The economy, historically reliant on tourism and agriculture, is diversifying with growth in technology, renewable energy, and healthcare sectors. While the county has faced economic challenges, including those from recent wildfires, there is ongoing investment in infrastructure projects to support housing and community development. Educational options include public schools, part of the statewide system, and various private institutions, some offering Hawaiian Language Immersion Programs.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Maui County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -5.8% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
31.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-5.8%

Prices declining

Price/Rent
21x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 31.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    County of Maui Government
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Hawaii State Department of Education Education
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Hawaii Pacific Health Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Kyo-Ya Co LLC Hospitality
  5. 5
    Westin Maui Resort & Spa Ka'anapali Hospitality
    500+
  6. 6
    Maui High Performance Computing Center (MHPCC) Technology
  7. 7
    Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Technology
  8. 8
    Hawaiian Airlines Logistics
  9. 9
    Blue Hawaiian Helicopters Hospitality
  10. 10
    Maui Arts & Cultural Center Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Maui County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
164,522
-0.07% YoY
Median Household Income
$97,161
Median Home Value
$904,700
-5.78% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,916
Average Annual Pay
$64,118
+3.7% YoY
Employment
74,341
+0.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1074
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
1.54%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
31.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$970,000
Days on Market
92
Slower market
Months of Supply
12.1
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
94.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
6.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
17.3%
Building Permits (2025)
902
Single-Family Permits
527

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
67.7
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

A
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
20.7
Good
Good Air Days
99%
1,062 of 1,071 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
21
2022
21
2023
20
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$592M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Kūihelani Solar-plus-Storage
AES Hawai'i
$240M Operating
Waena Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
Hawaiian Electric
$160M Under Construction
Single-Family New Construction Program (Affordable Housing)
County of Maui Office of Recovery
$92M Planned
Kaheawa Wind Power I (25-year lease extension)
Kaheawa Wind Power LLC
$50M Planned
Waste-to-Renewable Natural Gas Project
E&K Aloha ʻĀina, LLC
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.1% 20 percentile
Income Growth +2.2% 35 percentile
Vacancy Rate 3.0% 1 percentile
Home Price Change -5.8% 1 percentile
Rent Growth +3.4% 58 percentile
Price/Rent 21x 13 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Maui County, HI a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Maui County scores just 12/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #877 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.9% and median household income of $97,161 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Maui County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Maui County. The median home is valued at $904,700 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.11, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $1,916/month.

Is Maui County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Maui County are both close to flat — population -0.1% YoY and jobs +0.9%. Home values shifted -5.8% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are many people relocating to Maui County?

Not particularly — 1.54% of Maui County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

Is the housing market declining in Maui County?

Home values fell -5.8% over the past year in Maui County, bringing the median down to $904,700. A drop of that magnitude usually reflects weakening demand or population outflow — worth watching if you're considering buying here.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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