24 / 100

Honolulu County, HI

RANK #755 / 996 NAT  ·  POP 1,010,100

1YR FORECAST: +0.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +17%

#18 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Honolulu County's housing market at +0.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Honolulu County?

Honolulu County, encompassing the entire island of Oʻahu, is distinguished by its blend of urban development and natural scenery, with the iconic Diamond Head crater overlooking the capital city of Honolulu. Located over 2,400 miles from the U.S. mainland, it is one of the most isolated major metropolitan areas globally. Commute options include TheBus, a public bus system, and the new Skyline rail, which aims to alleviate traffic congestion. The community offers extensive outdoor recreation, from surfing and snorkeling to hiking trails and numerous parks.

Life in Honolulu County offers a unique blend of cultures, influenced by Native Hawaiian heritage and diverse immigration from across the Pacific. The economy is driven by tourism, military presence, and ongoing efforts to diversify into sustainable sectors. Recent economic developments focus on building a resilient economy, with investments in renewable energy, water conservation, and local food production. Public schools are generally above average, and the county also has notable private institutions like Punahou School and 'Iolani School.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
12.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+2.6%

Below national median

Home Prices
-0.6%

Prices declining

Price/Rent
25x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 12.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Government (Federal, State, and City & County of Honolulu) Government
    50,000+
  2. 2
    University of Hawaii System Education
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Hawaii State Department Of Education Education
  4. 4
    Hawaiian Electric Industries Energy
    2,500+
  5. 5
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
    1,000+
  6. 6
    Hawaii Pacific Health Healthcare
  7. 7
    The Queen's Medical Center Healthcare
  8. 8
    Hawaiian Airlines Hospitality
  9. 9
    Bank of Hawaii Finance
  10. 10
    First Hawaiian Bank Finance

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Honolulu County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,010,100
-0.5% YoY
Median Household Income
$99,816
Median Home Value
$832,200
-0.56% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,976
Average Annual Pay
$69,851
+4.8% YoY
Employment
453,193
+1.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1199
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
0.36%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
36.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$700,000
Days on Market
100
Slower market
Months of Supply
7.7
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.6%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
17.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
14.4%
Building Permits (2024)
1,638
Single-Family Permits
706

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
3.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
62.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
29.3
Good
Good Air Days
97%
1,057 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
28
2022
29
2023
31
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,210M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Ward Village Master-Planned Community
Howard Hughes
$500M Under Construction
Kapolei Energy Storage (KES)
Plus Power
$400M Operating
Mililani Solar (39 MW) and Waiawa Solar (36 MW) with Battery Storage
Clearway Energy Group
$140M Operating
Mahi Solar & Storage Project
Longroad Energy
$120M Planned
Na Pua Makani Wind Farm
AES Hawaii
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.6% 48 percentile
Population Growth -0.5% 11 percentile
Income Growth +7.8% 32 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 40 percentile
Home Price Change -0.6% 25 percentile
Rent Growth +4.8% 77 percentile
Price/Rent 25x 2 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Honolulu County, HI a good place to move to?

At 24/100, Honolulu County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $99,816 combined with job growth of +1.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Honolulu County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Honolulu County. The median home is valued at $832,200 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.12, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $1,976/month.

Is Honolulu County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Honolulu County are hiring — job growth of +1.1% — but the population is close to flat (-0.5% YoY). Home values moved -0.6% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are many people relocating to Honolulu County?

Not particularly — 0.36% of Honolulu County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Hawaii County, HI 22 Kauai County, HI 9 Maui County, HI 0 Fulton County, GA 24 Essex County, MA 23 Suffolk County, MA 23 San Joaquin County, CA 23 Montgomery County, PA 22