10 / 100

Santa Cruz County, CA

RANK #897 / 1001 NAT  ·  #29 / 43 CA  ·  POP 264,926

1YR FORECAST: +1.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +19%

#5 Most Overvalued #10 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Santa Cruz County's housing market at +1.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Santa Cruz County?

Santa Cruz County, California, is distinguished by its dramatic natural landscape, where redwood forests meet the Pacific Ocean. The city of Santa Cruz, the county seat, is about 65 miles south of San Francisco and 35 miles southwest of Silicon Valley, offering a blend of coastal living and access to major urban centers. Commuting to Silicon Valley is common, with options including personal vehicles on Highway 17 and tech shuttles. The community has a relaxed, progressive atmosphere, known for its surf culture and commitment to environmental consciousness. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with 29 miles of beaches, numerous state parks like Henry Cowell Redwoods State Park, and opportunities for surfing, hiking, mountain biking, and tide pooling.

Life in Santa Cruz County is characterized by its natural amenities and a focus on outdoor activities. The county attracts a diverse population, including students attending the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), and individuals seeking a laid-back lifestyle. Public schools in the county are highly rated, with ten public school districts serving approximately 40,000 students. The local economy is supported by technology, agriculture, and tourism. Recent economic developments include efforts to revitalize areas like the San Lorenzo River Walk with mixed-use housing and commercial projects, and incentives to activate vacant storefronts. However, the county also faces challenges with a high cost of living and housing affordability.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Santa Cruz County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +2.2% runs above the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
37.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+2.2%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
8.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 37.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC) Education
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Pajaro Valley Unified School District Education
    2,500+
  3. 3
    County of Santa Cruz Government
  4. 4
    Dominican Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    City of Santa Cruz Government
  6. 6
    Cabrillo College Education
    500+
  7. 7
    Santa Cruz City School District Education
  8. 8
    Seagate Technology Technology
  9. 9
    Santa Cruz Seaside Company (Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk) Hospitality
  10. 10
    Watsonville Hospital Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Santa Cruz County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
264,926
-0.41% YoY
Median Household Income
$111,093
Median Home Value
$1,027,500
+2.2% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,264
Average Annual Pay
$70,130
+3.7% YoY
Employment
104,473
0.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1081
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.04%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
43.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$1,141,250
Days on Market
18
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
2.8
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.9%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
33.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
31.4%
Building Permits (2025)
470
Single-Family Permits
163

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
5.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
78.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
36.0
Good
Good Air Days
81%
885 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
37
2022
35
2023
36
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.4% 8 percentile
Income Growth +1.7% 24 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 55 percentile
Home Price Change +2.2% 58 percentile
Rent Growth +2.0% 35 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 5 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Santa Cruz County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Santa Cruz County scores just 10/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #897 of 1001 counties. median household income of $111,093 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Santa Cruz County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Santa Cruz County. The median home is valued at $1,027,500 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.11, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,264/month.

Is Santa Cruz County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Santa Cruz County are both close to flat — population -0.4% YoY and jobs 0.0%. Home values shifted +2.2% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Santa Cruz County?

In significant numbers — 6.04% of Santa Cruz County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Napa County, CA 10 Monterey County, CA 10 San Luis Obispo County, CA 10 Contra Costa County, CA 11 Riverside County, CA 11 El Dorado County, CA 11 Charlotte County, FL 10 Howard County, MD 10