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Santa Cruz County, CA

RANK #837 / 996 NAT  ·  #24 / 43 CA  ·  POP 268,571

1YR FORECAST: +0.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

#10 Best Climate & Terrain #10 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Santa Cruz County's housing market at +0.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Santa Cruz County?

Santa Cruz County, California, is distinguished by its dramatic natural landscape, where redwood forests meet the Pacific Ocean. The city of Santa Cruz, the county seat, is about 65 miles south of San Francisco and 35 miles southwest of Silicon Valley, offering a blend of coastal living and access to major urban centers. Commuting to Silicon Valley is common, with options including personal vehicles on Highway 17 and tech shuttles. The community has a relaxed, progressive atmosphere, known for its surf culture and commitment to environmental consciousness. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with 29 miles of beaches, numerous state parks like Henry Cowell Redwoods State Park, and opportunities for surfing, hiking, mountain biking, and tide pooling.

Life in Santa Cruz County is characterized by its natural amenities and a focus on outdoor activities. The county attracts a diverse population, including students attending the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), and individuals seeking a laid-back lifestyle. Public schools in the county are highly rated, with ten public school districts serving approximately 40,000 students. The local economy is supported by technology, agriculture, and tourism. Recent economic developments include efforts to revitalize areas like the San Lorenzo River Walk with mixed-use housing and commercial projects, and incentives to activate vacant storefronts. However, the county also faces challenges with a high cost of living and housing affordability.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
15.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.4%

Above national median

Home Prices
+1.0%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
8.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 15.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    University of California at Santa Cruz (UCSC) Education
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Pajaro Valley Unified School District Education
    2,500+
  3. 3
    County of Santa Cruz Government
  4. 4
    Dominican Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    City of Santa Cruz Government
  6. 6
    Cabrillo College Education
    500+
  7. 7
    Santa Cruz City School District Education
  8. 8
    Seagate Technology Technology
  9. 9
    Santa Cruz Seaside Company (Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk) Hospitality
  10. 10
    Watsonville Hospital Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Santa Cruz County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
268,571
-1.31% YoY
Median Household Income
$104,409
Median Home Value
$951,300
+1.02% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,094
Average Annual Pay
$67,622
+3.5% YoY
Employment
104,514
+1.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1098
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.0%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
42.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$1,129,500
Days on Market
52
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.6
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
24.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
24.8%
Building Permits (2024)
259
Single-Family Permits
189

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
5.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
78.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
36.0
Good
Good Air Days
81%
885 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
37
2022
35
2023
36
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.4% 64 percentile
Population Growth -1.3% 2 percentile
Income Growth +8.7% 54 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 74 percentile
Home Price Change +1.0% 46 percentile
Rent Growth +1.2% 22 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 3 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Santa Cruz County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Santa Cruz County scores just 15/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #837 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.1% and median household income of $104,409 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Santa Cruz County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Santa Cruz County. The median home is valued at $951,300 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.11, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,094/month.

Is Santa Cruz County growing or shrinking?

It's a mixed picture in Santa Cruz County. The population is declining (-1.3% YoY), but employers are actually hiring — job growth is at +1.1%. Home values moved +1.0% in the last year. That tension between shrinking population and expanding employment often signals a county in transition.

Are people moving to Santa Cruz County?

In significant numbers — 6.0% of Santa Cruz County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Los Angeles County, CA 15 Marin County, CA 15 Orange County, CA 15 Solano County, CA 14 Shasta County, CA 17 San Francisco County, CA 13 Rockingham County, NH 15 Harford County, MD 16