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Chatham County, NC

RANK #950 / 1001 NAT  ·  #49 / 51 NC  ·  POP 80,151

1YR FORECAST: -1.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +15%

#15 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Chatham County's housing market at -1.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Chatham County?

Chatham County, North Carolina, is often recognized for Jordan Lake, a sprawling 14,000-acre reservoir popular for recreation, situated on its eastern side. The county, centrally located in North Carolina's Piedmont region, is about 20-30 minutes from Raleigh, Durham, Cary, and Chapel Hill, offering access to urban amenities while maintaining a rural feel. Commute options include major highways like US 64, US 421, and US 15-501, with public transportation provided by Chatham Transit Network and Chapel Hill Transit. The area features extensive woodlands and river systems like the Haw and Deep Rivers, providing opportunities for hiking, kayaking, and other outdoor activities.

Life in Chatham County blends rural charm with modern opportunities, attracting families, retirees, and remote workers. The public school system is highly rated, with Chatham County Schools serving over 9,000 students. The economy is experiencing growth, driven by residential and commercial development, infrastructure projects, and manufacturing. Major investments are flowing into various sectors, creating new job opportunities and fostering a business-friendly environment.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Chatham County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.3% YoY, population +2.3%, wages +8.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
31.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.3%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
0.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
21x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 31.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Chatham County Schools Education
    1,000+
  2. 2
    County of Chatham Government
    500+
  3. 3
    Mountaire Farms of NC Inc. Agriculture
    250+
  4. 4
    Carolina Meadows Inc. Healthcare
  5. 5
    Galloway Ridge Inc. Healthcare
  6. 6
    Wal-Mart Associates Inc. Retail
    100+
  7. 7
    Chatham Hospital Inc. Healthcare
  8. 8
    Lowe's Home Centers Inc. Retail
  9. 9
    Flakeboard America Limited Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Piedmont Health Services Inc. Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Chatham County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
80,151
+2.34% YoY
Median Household Income
$94,317
Median Home Value
$446,200
+0.31% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,180
Average Annual Pay
$56,427
+8.8% YoY
Employment
20,316
+9.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2114
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.32%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
48.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$645,500
Days on Market
41
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.2
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.5%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
15.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
25.1%
Building Permits (2025)
517
Single-Family Permits
517

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.8
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
91.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$14,141M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
John Palmour Manufacturing Center for Silicon Carbide
Wolfspeed
$5,000M Under Construction
Chatham Park (Master-Planned Community)
Preston Development Company
$5,000M Under Construction
VinFast Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Plant
VinFast
$4,000M Under Construction
Chatham County Public Facilities Upgrades (HVAC & Roofs)
Chatham County
$91M Planned
Solar Farm Portfolio (Multiple Projects)
Various (e.g., Cypress Creek Renewables, Strata Solar, Siler City Solar 2, LLC)
$50M Operating/Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.3% 90 percentile
Income Growth +6.5% 98 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.1% 44 percentile
Home Price Change +0.3% 30 percentile
Rent Growth +0.4% 14 percentile
Price/Rent 21x 14 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Chatham County, NC a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Chatham County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #950 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +9.6% and median household income of $94,317 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Chatham County affordable?

Chatham County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $446,200 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.21 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,180/month on average.

Is Chatham County growing or shrinking?

Chatham County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.3% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +9.6% clip. Home values shifted +0.3% in the past year.

Are people moving to Chatham County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.32% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Chatham County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Wake County, NC 5 Durham County, NC 3 Buncombe County, NC 2 Orange County, NC 8 Moore County, NC 8 Mecklenburg County, NC 8 San Patricio County, TX 4 Mendocino County, CA 4