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Lincoln County, NC

RANK #756 / 1001 NAT  ·  #40 / 51 NC  ·  POP 92,716

1YR FORECAST: -1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +24%

Our model projects Lincoln County's housing market at -1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Lincoln County?

Lincoln County, North Carolina, is often recognized for its connection to Lake Norman, the state's largest man-made lake, which provides both recreation and electricity. The county seat, Lincolnton, offers a historic downtown anchored by the Lincoln County Courthouse and features several historic churches. Located in the state's Piedmont region, about 20 miles southeast of Charlotte, Lincoln County offers a community feel with access to urban amenities. Commutes average around 30 minutes, with most residents driving to work. The area boasts a mild climate and rolling terrain with numerous creeks and streams, offering opportunities for outdoor activities like walking, hiking, and water sports.

Life in Lincoln County blends small-town values with economic growth. Many families reside here, with public schools in the Lincoln County Schools district receiving high ratings. The local economy, historically rooted in textiles and iron production, has diversified. Recent economic developments show significant investment in sectors such as manufacturing and energy, with new facilities and expansions contributing to job creation. The county's proximity to Charlotte also ties much of its economic activity to the larger metropolitan area.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Exurban Boom

Lincoln County is one of 43 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +2.3% runs above the profile's typical -0.0%.

See all 43 Sun Belt Exurban Boom counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
18.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+2.3%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
1.5

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 18.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Atrium Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Lincoln County Schools Education
    1,000+
  3. 3
    American Woodmark Manufacturing
    500+
  4. 4
    Timken Co. Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Robert Bosch Tool Corporation Manufacturing
    250+
  6. 6
    Blum Inc. Manufacturing
  7. 7
    LeeBoy Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Lincoln County Government Government
    100+
  9. 9
    Cataler North America Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Husky Rack & Wire Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lincoln County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
92,716
+2.61% YoY
Median Household Income
$80,016
Median Home Value
$321,000
+2.32% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,015
Average Annual Pay
$56,656
+1.8% YoY
Employment
28,816
+2.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2493
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.53%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$410,000
Days on Market
74
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.5%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
22.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.2%
Building Permits (2025)
785
Single-Family Permits
785

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
81.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
42.7
Good
Good Air Days
83%
609 of 730 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
42
2022
43
2023
43
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$744M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Lincoln Combustion Turbine Station Expansion
Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC
$402M Operating
Green New Energy Materials Manufacturing Plant
Green New Energy Materials, Inc.
$140M Under Construction
Hornet Solar Project
Capital Power
$73M Under Construction
NC16/NC150 Interchange Development
Lincoln County
$50M Planned
Lincoln County Airport Capital Improvement Plan
Lincoln County Airport Authority
$50M Under Construction
Active Concepts Headquarters Expansion
Active Concepts
$29M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.6% 92 percentile
Income Growth +1.9% 30 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.5% 92 percentile
Home Price Change +2.3% 59 percentile
Rent Growth -1.3% 5 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 41 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lincoln County, NC a good place to move to?

At 24/100, Lincoln County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $80,016 combined with job growth of +2.5% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Lincoln County affordable?

Lincoln County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $321,000 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.25 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,015/month on average.

Is Lincoln County growing or shrinking?

Lincoln County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.6% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.5% clip. Home values shifted +2.3% in the past year.

Are people moving to Lincoln County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.53% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Lincoln County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Iredell County, NC 25 Union County, NC 25 New Hanover County, NC 23 Cleveland County, NC 23 Pender County, NC 18 Cabarrus County, NC 32 Montgomery County, VA 24 Yuba County, CA 24