RANK #881 / 1001 NAT · #23 / 43 CA · POP 1,165,012
1YR FORECAST: -0.8%
5YR OUTLOOK: +20%
Mount Diablo, a 3,849-foot peak, is a prominent landmark in Contra Costa County, California, offering panoramic views of the San Francisco Bay Area. Located in the East Bay, the county is approximately 30 minutes from Oakland and 45 minutes from San Francisco, with commute options including BART, carpooling, and ferry services. The region boasts a Mediterranean climate and extensive natural amenities, including over 1,200 miles of hiking and biking trails, numerous parks, and access to the San Joaquin River Delta for water activities. Notable towns like Walnut Creek offer upscale dining and shopping, while Lafayette provides a quieter charm.
Life in Contra Costa County often involves a suburban feel, attracting families and professionals. The county's public schools are highly rated, with districts like San Ramon Valley Unified School District and Acalanes Union High School District recognized for academic excellence. The economy, while experiencing modest growth, is largely driven by service sectors such as education and healthcare. Major investment is also flowing into commercial and residential developments, data centers, and industrial and logistics sectors, particularly along the Northern Waterfront. The county is also working to diversify its economy beyond its historical reliance on the petroleum industry.
Contra Costa County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.6% runs below the profile's typical -0.8%.
See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Speculative pricing
Housing looks overvalued at 30.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Perseus Data Center (Pittsburg Technology Park)
Avaio Digital Partners
|
$800M | Planned |
|
Delilah Energy Storage
Unknown
|
$504M | Planned |
|
Bridgehead Industrial Project (Warehouse & Logistics)
Unknown
|
$150M | Approved |
|
Bayview Residential Project
Unknown
|
$75M | Proposed |
|
Phillips 66 Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex Solar Project
Phillips 66
|
$60M | Planned |
|
Keller Canyon Renewable Natural Gas Plant
Ameresco, Republic Services, PG&E
|
$50M | Operating |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Contra Costa County scores just 11/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #881 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.1% and median household income of $127,229 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Affordability is a real challenge in Contra Costa County. The median home is valued at $866,800 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.15, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,375/month.
Population and employment in Contra Costa County are both close to flat — population +0.3% YoY and jobs +0.1%. Home values shifted -3.6% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.35% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Contra Costa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.