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Contra Costa County, CA

RANK #881 / 1001 NAT  ·  #23 / 43 CA  ·  POP 1,165,012

1YR FORECAST: -0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +20%

#11 Best Climate & Terrain #17 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Contra Costa County's housing market at -0.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Contra Costa County?

Mount Diablo, a 3,849-foot peak, is a prominent landmark in Contra Costa County, California, offering panoramic views of the San Francisco Bay Area. Located in the East Bay, the county is approximately 30 minutes from Oakland and 45 minutes from San Francisco, with commute options including BART, carpooling, and ferry services. The region boasts a Mediterranean climate and extensive natural amenities, including over 1,200 miles of hiking and biking trails, numerous parks, and access to the San Joaquin River Delta for water activities. Notable towns like Walnut Creek offer upscale dining and shopping, while Lafayette provides a quieter charm.

Life in Contra Costa County often involves a suburban feel, attracting families and professionals. The county's public schools are highly rated, with districts like San Ramon Valley Unified School District and Acalanes Union High School District recognized for academic excellence. The economy, while experiencing modest growth, is largely driven by service sectors such as education and healthcare. Major investment is also flowing into commercial and residential developments, data centers, and industrial and logistics sectors, particularly along the Northern Waterfront. The county is also working to diversify its economy beyond its historical reliance on the petroleum industry.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Contra Costa County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.6% runs below the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
30.9x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-3.6%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
8.4

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
26x

Speculative pricing

Housing looks overvalued at 30.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Contra Costa County Government
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Chevron Energy
  4. 4
    University of California Education
  5. 5
    Mount Diablo Unified School District Education
  6. 6
    Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Government
  7. 7
    Bio-Rad Laboratories Technology
  8. 8
    C&H Sugar Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Contra Costa County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,165,012
+0.31% YoY
Median Household Income
$127,229
Median Home Value
$866,800
-3.65% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,375
Average Annual Pay
$87,238
+1.2% YoY
Employment
374,454
+0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1468
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.35%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
45.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$849,500
Days on Market
18
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
2.3
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
102.1%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
49.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
28.8%
Building Permits (2025)
1,163
Single-Family Permits
970

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
8.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
56.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
49.7
Good
Good Air Days
50%
543 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
9
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
47
2022
51
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,639M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Perseus Data Center (Pittsburg Technology Park)
Avaio Digital Partners
$800M Planned
Delilah Energy Storage
Unknown
$504M Planned
Bridgehead Industrial Project (Warehouse & Logistics)
Unknown
$150M Approved
Bayview Residential Project
Unknown
$75M Proposed
Phillips 66 Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex Solar Project
Phillips 66
$60M Planned
Keller Canyon Renewable Natural Gas Plant
Ameresco, Republic Services, PG&E
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.3% 35 percentile
Income Growth +1.2% 18 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 78 percentile
Home Price Change -3.6% 4 percentile
Rent Growth +2.5% 43 percentile
Price/Rent 26x 3 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Contra Costa County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Contra Costa County scores just 11/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #881 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.1% and median household income of $127,229 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Contra Costa County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Contra Costa County. The median home is valued at $866,800 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.15, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,375/month.

Is Contra Costa County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Contra Costa County are both close to flat — population +0.3% YoY and jobs +0.1%. Home values shifted -3.6% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Contra Costa County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.35% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Contra Costa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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