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Contra Costa County, CA

Central Contra Costa

RANK #946 / 996 NAT  ·  #36 / 43 CA  ·  POP 1,162,648

1YR FORECAST: -0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +8%

#11 Best Climate & Terrain #20 Most Overvalued
Our model projects Contra Costa County's housing market at -0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Contra Costa County?

Mount Diablo, a 3,849-foot peak, is a prominent landmark in Contra Costa County, California, offering panoramic views of the San Francisco Bay Area. Located in the East Bay, the county is approximately 30 minutes from Oakland and 45 minutes from San Francisco, with commute options including BART, carpooling, and ferry services. The region boasts a Mediterranean climate and extensive natural amenities, including over 1,200 miles of hiking and biking trails, numerous parks, and access to the San Joaquin River Delta for water activities. Notable towns like Walnut Creek offer upscale dining and shopping, while Lafayette provides a quieter charm.

Life in Contra Costa County often involves a suburban feel, attracting families and professionals. The county's public schools are highly rated, with districts like San Ramon Valley Unified School District and Acalanes Union High School District recognized for academic excellence. The economy, while experiencing modest growth, is largely driven by service sectors such as education and healthcare. Major investment is also flowing into commercial and residential developments, data centers, and industrial and logistics sectors, particularly along the Northern Waterfront. The county is also working to diversify its economy beyond its historical reliance on the petroleum industry.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
11.9x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+1.1%

Well below national median

Home Prices
-4.3%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
8.4

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 11.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Contra Costa County Government
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Chevron Energy
  4. 4
    University of California Education
  5. 5
    Mount Diablo Unified School District Education
  6. 6
    Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Government
  7. 7
    Bio-Rad Laboratories Technology
  8. 8
    C&H Sugar Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Contra Costa County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,162,648
+0.09% YoY
Median Household Income
$120,020
Median Home Value
$787,300
-4.33% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,234
Average Annual Pay
$86,234
+2.9% YoY
Employment
373,992
+1.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1524
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.85%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
44.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$750,000
Days on Market
20
Active market
Months of Supply
2.5
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
101.6%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
49.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
20.2%
Building Permits (2024)
2,155
Single-Family Permits
1,251

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
8.2
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
56.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
49.7
Good
Good Air Days
50%
543 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
9
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
47
2022
51
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,639M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Perseus Data Center (Pittsburg Technology Park)
Avaio Digital Partners
$800M Planned
Delilah Energy Storage
Unknown
$504M Planned
Bridgehead Industrial Project (Warehouse & Logistics)
Unknown
$150M Approved
Bayview Residential Project
Unknown
$75M Proposed
Phillips 66 Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex Solar Project
Phillips 66
$60M Planned
Keller Canyon Renewable Natural Gas Plant
Ameresco, Republic Services, PG&E
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.1% 19 percentile
Population Growth +0.1% 33 percentile
Income Growth +8.7% 54 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 78 percentile
Home Price Change -4.3% 4 percentile
Rent Growth +2.9% 48 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 2 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Contra Costa County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Contra Costa County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #946 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.1% and median household income of $120,020 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Contra Costa County affordable?

Contra Costa County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $787,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.15 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $2,234/month on average.

Is Contra Costa County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Contra Costa County are hiring — job growth of +1.1% — but the population is close to flat (+0.1% YoY). Home values moved -4.3% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Contra Costa County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.85% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Contra Costa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Santa Clara County, CA 3 Lake County, CA 3 Ventura County, CA 2 San Mateo County, CA 2 San Diego County, CA 7 Humboldt County, CA 1 Washington County, OR 4 Wake County, NC 5