28 / 100

Polk County, FL

Lakeland

RANK #712 / 996 NAT  ·  #11 / 41 FL  ·  POP 736,229

1YR FORECAST: -1.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

#30 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Polk County's housing market at -1.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Polk County?

Polk County, Florida, distinguishes itself with its extensive network of over 550 freshwater lakes and 25,000 acres of recreational parks, offering abundant opportunities for outdoor activities like water skiing, kayaking, and fishing. Located in Central Florida, between Tampa and Orlando, the county provides a blend of suburban and rural living. Lakeland, the largest city, is known as "Swan City" for its wild swans and 38 lakes. Commuting to nearby major cities is common, with Interstate 4 serving as a primary route, though local roads like the Polk Parkway (SR 570) offer in-county alternatives. The community offers a slower pace of life compared to its metropolitan neighbors.

Life in Polk County appeals to a mix of families, retirees, and commuters seeking affordability and access to larger cities. The Polk County Public School District is one of Florida's largest, with approximately 160 school sites. The economy is diversified, with manufacturing emerging as a significant sector, growing faster than the state average and employing over 20,000 workers. Major investments are also flowing into data centers and energy infrastructure, with proposals for hyperscale data centers under consideration, which could bring substantial tax revenue and jobs. These developments aim to strengthen the local economy and support community services.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
4.7x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+3.8%

Above national median

Home Prices
-4.1%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.0

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing is fairly valued at 4.7x relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Publix Super Markets Retail
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Polk County Public Schools Education
  3. 3
    Lakeland Regional Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  4. 4
    Walmart Retail
  5. 5
    Amazon Logistics
  6. 6
    GEICO Finance
    2,500+
  7. 7
    City of Lakeland Government
  8. 8
    Polk County Board of County Commissioners Government
    1,000+
  9. 9
    Winter Haven Hospital Healthcare
  10. 10
    Watson Clinic Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Polk County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
736,229
+3.24% YoY
Median Household Income
$60,901
Median Home Value
$215,700
-4.08% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,192
Average Annual Pay
$55,697
+4.4% YoY
Employment
260,590
+0.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2823
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.87%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
21.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$305,000
Days on Market
68
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.7
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
15.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.5%
Building Permits (2024)
10,384
Single-Family Permits
8,514

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.3
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
88.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.7
Good
Good Air Days
71%
771 of 1,093 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
45
2022
44
2023
42
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,710M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Fort Meade Data Center Campus
Bohler Places LLC (developer, end-user undisclosed)
$2,700M Planned
Solar Farm Portfolio (Alafia, Jamison, Lake Mabel, Peace Creek, Payne Creek, Durrance, Lake Hancock, Bonnie Mine)
Tampa Electric Co. / Duke Energy
$570M Operating/Completed
Cielo Haines City Data Center
Cielo Digital Infrastructure
$300M Planned
RealCold Cold Storage Warehouse
RealCold
$50M Under Construction
Polk County Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facility
OPAL Fuels Inc. / Polk County municipal government
$50M Operating
Lake Mabel Solar and Battery Storage
Tampa Electric Co.
$40M Completed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.8% 69 percentile
Population Growth +3.2% 97 percentile
Income Growth +10.5% 86 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 40 percentile
Home Price Change -4.1% 5 percentile
Rent Growth 0.0% 11 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 92 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Polk County, FL a good place to move to?

At 28/100, Polk County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $60,901 combined with job growth of +0.7% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Polk County affordable?

Housing in Polk County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $215,700 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,192/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Polk County growing or shrinking?

Polk County's population is growing — up +3.2% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.7%). Home values shifted -4.1% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Polk County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.87% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Polk County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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