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Orange County, FL

RANK #961 / 1001 NAT  ·  #41 / 41 FL  ·  POP 1,471,937

1YR FORECAST: -2.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +13%

Our model projects Orange County's housing market at -2.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Orange County?

Known for its iconic theme parks, Orange County, Florida, is a major travel destination that blends metropolitan energy with suburban areas. Orlando, the county seat, is centrally located in the state, approximately an hour from both Atlantic and Gulf Coast beaches. The county offers extensive outdoor recreation, including over 150 parks, gardens, and recreation areas. Residents can explore more than 19,000 acres of conservation lands, hike over 90 miles of trails, or enjoy water activities at locations like Kelly Park, known for its natural spring. The climate features year-round sunshine, though summers bring heat and humidity. Commuting primarily relies on cars, with major routes like I-4, SR-408, SR-417, and SR-528, though SunRail and LYNX bus services offer public transportation options.

Orange County attracts a diverse population, including families, young professionals, and retirees. The public school system, Orange County Public Schools, is highly rated and serves a large student body. The economy, while historically tied to citrus, has diversified beyond tourism to include healthcare, technology, and advanced manufacturing. Major institutions like the University of Central Florida contribute to a skilled workforce. Recent economic developments show growth in sectors such as life sciences, aerospace, and digital media, with ongoing investments in infrastructure and corporate expansions.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Orange County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.0% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
8.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-3.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
3.0

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 8.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    The Walt Disney Company Hospitality
    50,000+
  2. 2
    AdventHealth Healthcare
    25,000+
  3. 3
    Universal Orlando Resort Hospitality
    10,000+
  4. 4
    Orlando Health Healthcare
  5. 5
    Orlando International Airport Logistics
  6. 6
    Publix Super Markets Inc. Retail
  7. 7
    University of Central Florida Education
  8. 8
    Lockheed Martin Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Siemens Energy Energy
    5,000+
  10. 10
    Westgate Resorts Hospitality
    2,500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Orange County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,471,937
+2.18% YoY
Median Household Income
$79,719
Median Home Value
$390,100
-3.04% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,775
Average Annual Pay
$70,562
+4.1% YoY
Employment
954,247
+0.5% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2044
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.69%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
39.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$449,900
Days on Market
41
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.6
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
13.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
31.7%
Building Permits (2025)
13,140
Single-Family Permits
4,221

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
11.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
71.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
38.3
Good
Good Air Days
86%
938 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
2
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
33
2022
39
2023
43
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$324M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
HostDime Flagship Data Center and Corporate HQ ("Supernova")
HostDime
$100M Under Construction
Amazon Fulfillment Center - Lake Nona
Amazon
$100M Operating
Taylor Creek Solar Energy Center
FMPA and 16 Florida public power utilities (including OUC)
$74M Operating
Orange County Floating Solar Array (Southern Regional Water Supply Facility)
Orange County Utilities
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.2% 89 percentile
Income Growth +3.5% 69 percentile
Vacancy Rate 2.6% 2 percentile
Home Price Change -3.0% 6 percentile
Rent Growth -0.3% 9 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 36 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Orange County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Orange County scores just 3/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #961 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.5% and median household income of $79,719 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Orange County affordable?

Orange County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $390,100 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.20 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,775/month on average.

Is Orange County growing or shrinking?

Orange County's population is growing — up +2.2% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.5%). Home values shifted -3.0% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Orange County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.69% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Orange County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Manatee County, FL 4 Lee County, FL 5 Sarasota County, FL 5 Hillsborough County, FL 5 Collier County, FL 7 Pinellas County, FL 8 Denton County, TX 3 Bexar County, TX 3