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Hernando County, FL

RANK #856 / 1001 NAT  ·  #29 / 41 FL  ·  POP 207,018

1YR FORECAST: -2.7%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

Our model projects Hernando County's housing market at -2.7% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Hernando County?

Hernando County, Florida, often called "Florida's Adventure Coast," is distinguished by its natural springs and extensive outdoor recreation opportunities. Located on Florida's central-west coast, roughly 45 minutes north of Tampa, the county offers a quieter, more suburban feel compared to its bustling southern neighbor. Weeki Wachee Springs State Park, famous for its mermaid shows since 1947, is a notable landmark. The county boasts numerous parks, preserves, and state lands, including portions of the Withlacoochee State Forest, providing trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding. Kayaking and paddling are popular on the Weeki Wachee River and at Jenkins Creek Park, where manatees and sea turtles can be observed.

Life in Hernando County appeals to a mix of families and retirees, drawn by the natural surroundings and a less congested environment. Public transportation, known as "TheBus," offers fixed routes and ADA-compliant services, with recent expansions to coastal areas like Pine Island Park. The local economy is seeing investment in commercial and residential development, as well as in sectors like aviation, aerospace, manufacturing, and logistics. The Brooksville–Tampa Bay Regional Airport & Technology Center is a focus for economic growth, with ongoing infrastructure projects aimed at attracting businesses and creating jobs.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Hernando County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -2.8% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
21.8x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-2.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
3.7

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 21.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Hernando County School Board Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Walmart Supercenters Retail
  3. 3
    HCA Florida Oak Hill Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Publix Retail
  5. 5
    Walmart Distribution Center Logistics
  6. 6
    Access Health Care Physicians Healthcare
    500+
  7. 7
    Hernando County Government Government
  8. 8
    TGH North Healthcare
  9. 9
    Hernando County Sheriff's Office Government
  10. 10
    Rural King Retail

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Hernando County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
207,018
+2.73% YoY
Median Household Income
$66,058
Median Home Value
$276,000
-2.76% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,298
Average Annual Pay
$51,889
+2.7% YoY
Employment
50,562
-0.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2393
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.3%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
21.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$315,000
Days on Market
60
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.5
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.9%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
14.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
39.6%
Building Permits (2025)
1,975
Single-Family Permits
1,734

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
130.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$215M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Cabot Citrus Farms (Golf Resort)
Cabot
$100M Under Construction
Rattler Solar Plant
Duke Energy Florida, LLC & Florida A&M University
$75M Under Construction
Amazon Last-Mile Warehouse
Amazon
$40M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +2.7% 93 percentile
Income Growth +4.5% 86 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 54 percentile
Home Price Change -2.8% 8 percentile
Rent Growth -1.8% 4 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 85 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Hernando County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Hernando County scores just 14/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #856 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -0.6% and median household income of $66,058 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Hernando County affordable?

Hernando County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $276,000 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.24 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,298/month on average.

Is Hernando County growing or shrinking?

Hernando County's population is growing — up +2.7% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.6%). Home values shifted -2.8% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Hernando County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.3% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Hernando County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Osceola County, FL 14 Marion County, FL 13 Pasco County, FL 16 Citrus County, FL 12 Highlands County, FL 11 St. Johns County, FL 18 Kaufman County, TX 14 Black Hawk County, IA 14