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Hernando County, FL

Spring Hill

RANK #724 / 996 NAT  ·  #13 / 41 FL  ·  POP 196,621

1YR FORECAST: -2.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +18%

Our model projects Hernando County's housing market at -2.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Hernando County?

Hernando County, Florida, often called "Florida's Adventure Coast," is distinguished by its natural springs and extensive outdoor recreation opportunities. Located on Florida's central-west coast, roughly 45 minutes north of Tampa, the county offers a quieter, more suburban feel compared to its bustling southern neighbor. Weeki Wachee Springs State Park, famous for its mermaid shows since 1947, is a notable landmark. The county boasts numerous parks, preserves, and state lands, including portions of the Withlacoochee State Forest, providing trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding. Kayaking and paddling are popular on the Weeki Wachee River and at Jenkins Creek Park, where manatees and sea turtles can be observed.

Life in Hernando County appeals to a mix of families and retirees, drawn by the natural surroundings and a less congested environment. Public transportation, known as "TheBus," offers fixed routes and ADA-compliant services, with recent expansions to coastal areas like Pine Island Park. The local economy is seeing investment in commercial and residential development, as well as in sectors like aviation, aerospace, manufacturing, and logistics. The Brooksville–Tampa Bay Regional Airport & Technology Center is a focus for economic growth, with ongoing infrastructure projects aimed at attracting businesses and creating jobs.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.5x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.5%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-3.3%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
3.7

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 7.5x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Hernando County School Board Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Walmart Supercenters Retail
  3. 3
    HCA Florida Oak Hill Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Publix Retail
  5. 5
    Walmart Distribution Center Logistics
  6. 6
    Access Health Care Physicians Healthcare
    500+
  7. 7
    Hernando County Government Government
  8. 8
    TGH North Healthcare
  9. 9
    Hernando County Sheriff's Office Government
  10. 10
    Rural King Retail

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Hernando County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
196,621
+2.34% YoY
Median Household Income
$59,202
Median Home Value
$214,700
-3.32% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,155
Average Annual Pay
$50,502
+6.4% YoY
Employment
50,853
+2.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2757
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.66%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
20.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$327,950
Days on Market
80
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.1
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
13.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.8%
Building Permits (2024)
2,505
Single-Family Permits
2,187

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
130.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$215M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Cabot Citrus Farms (Golf Resort)
Cabot
$100M Under Construction
Rattler Solar Plant
Duke Energy Florida, LLC & Florida A&M University
$75M Under Construction
Amazon Last-Mile Warehouse
Amazon
$40M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.5% 87 percentile
Population Growth +2.3% 91 percentile
Income Growth +11.1% 91 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 41 percentile
Home Price Change -3.3% 8 percentile
Rent Growth -1.6% 3 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 93 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Hernando County, FL a good place to move to?

At 27/100, Hernando County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $59,202 combined with job growth of +2.4% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Hernando County affordable?

Housing in Hernando County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $214,700 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,155/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Hernando County growing or shrinking?

Hernando County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.3% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.4% clip. Home values shifted -3.3% in the past year.

Are people moving to Hernando County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.66% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Hernando County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Bay County, FL 27 Okaloosa County, FL 27 Polk County, FL 28 Escambia County, FL 26 Leon County, FL 25 Orange County, FL 30 Wilson County, TN 27 Henderson County, NC 27