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Duval County, FL

Jacksonville East

RANK #802 / 996 NAT  ·  #23 / 41 FL  ·  POP 995,708

1YR FORECAST: -1.4%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

Our model projects Duval County's housing market at -1.4% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Duval County?

Duval County, Florida, is often recognized for Jacksonville, its largest city, which holds the distinction of being the largest city by land area in the continental United States. Located in Northeast Florida, the county stretches along the Atlantic Ocean and is bisected by the St. Johns River. Commuting within the county is primarily by car, though the Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) offers bus, shuttle, trolley, and paratransit services, including a Skyway monorail in downtown Jacksonville. The community offers a blend of urban, suburban, and coastal living. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with miles of sandy beaches at Jacksonville Beach, Neptune Beach, and Atlantic Beach, and opportunities for boating, fishing, kayaking, and hiking in preserves like the Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve and Kathryn Abbey Hanna Park.

Life in Duval County appeals to families and young professionals, with public schools generally performing above average. The economy is experiencing growth, driven by sectors such as advanced manufacturing, healthcare, and transportation and logistics. Major investments are flowing into commercial and residential developments, as well as energy infrastructure. The region's infrastructure, including interstates, railroads, and JAXPORT, a deep-water port, supports its role as a logistics and trade hub.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.0x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.2%

Above national median

Home Prices
-3.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
13x

Below national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 3.0x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Naval Air Station Jacksonville Military
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Duval County Public Schools Education
  3. 3
    Baptist Health Healthcare
  4. 4
    Naval Station Mayport Military
  5. 5
    Mayo Clinic – Jacksonville Healthcare
    5,000+
  6. 6
    City of Jacksonville Government
  7. 7
    Bank of America Finance
  8. 8
    Florida Blue (GuideWell) Finance
  9. 9
    Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) Finance
  10. 10
    CSX Corporation Logistics
    2,500+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Duval County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
995,708
+1.28% YoY
Median Household Income
$65,579
Median Home Value
$251,300
-3.51% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,293
Average Annual Pay
$71,652
+4.5% YoY
Employment
563,527
+1.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.261
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.68%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
32.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$305,000
Days on Market
83
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.5
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.9%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.7%
Listings w/ Price Drops
29.9%
Building Permits (2024)
6,495
Single-Family Permits
5,134

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

F
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
14.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
22.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
115.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
52.3
Moderate
Good Air Days
40%
440 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
2
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
53
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,780M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
JEA Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant
JEA
$1,570M Planned
Downtown Northbank Hotel, Conference Center and Office Plaza
Corner Lot and Aspect Holdings LLC
$160M Proposed
Duval County Public Schools Headquarters Redevelopment (Luxury Condos, Retail, Restaurants)
Chase Properties
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.2% 60 percentile
Population Growth +1.3% 78 percentile
Income Growth +10.1% 81 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 16 percentile
Home Price Change -3.5% 7 percentile
Rent Growth +0.5% 14 percentile
Price/Rent 13x 52 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Duval County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Duval County scores just 19/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #802 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.2% and median household income of $65,579 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Duval County affordable?

Housing in Duval County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $251,300 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $1,293/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Duval County growing or shrinking?

Duval County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.3% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.2% clip. Home values shifted -3.5% in the past year.

Are people moving to Duval County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.68% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Duval County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Alachua County, FL 20 St. Johns County, FL 20 Citrus County, FL 18 Monroe County, FL 18 Marion County, FL 18 Lake County, FL 21 Jefferson County, AL 19 Pima County, AZ 18