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Pasco County, FL

New Port Richey

RANK #948 / 996 NAT  ·  #37 / 41 FL  ·  POP 569,211

1YR FORECAST: -2.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +8%

#36 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Pasco County's housing market at -2.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Pasco County?

Known for its extensive natural landscapes, Pasco County, Florida, offers a blend of coastal access and inland wilderness. Located just north of Tampa, it provides a quieter alternative to the nearby city, with a commute of about 30 miles. The county features 20 miles of shoreline, including barrier islands with beaches, and numerous parks and preserves like Jay B. Starkey Wilderness Park and Werner-Boyce Salt Springs State Park. These areas provide opportunities for hiking, biking, kayaking, and wildlife viewing. Towns like New Port Richey offer a historic riverfront feel, while Zephyrhills is known for its spring water and skydiving.

Pasco County's quality of life attracts families, retirees, and remote workers seeking a balance of natural beauty and suburban amenities. The public school system serves over 85,000 students across more than 100 schools. While many residents historically commuted to Tampa or St. Petersburg, the local economy is expanding. Recent developments include growth in commercial and residential sectors, as well as investments in industrial, logistics, and manufacturing. The county also has a public transportation system, GoPasco, offering fixed bus routes and paratransit services.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.3%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-4.7%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
3.4

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
10x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 7.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Pasco County Public Schools Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Pasco County Government Government
    2,500+
  3. 3
    HCA Healthcare Healthcare
  4. 4
    BayCare Morton Plant North Bay Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    State of Florida Government
  6. 6
    HCA Florida Bayonet Hospital Healthcare
  7. 7
    Florida Medical Clinic Healthcare
  8. 8
    AdventHealth Wesley Chapel Healthcare
  9. 9
    AdventHealth Zephyrhills Healthcare
  10. 10
    Pasco County Sheriff Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Pasco County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
569,211
+3.19% YoY
Median Household Income
$63,187
Median Home Value
$233,600
-4.66% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,282
Average Annual Pay
$55,908
+5.4% YoY
Employment
145,102
+3.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2705
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.18%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
27.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$330,000
Days on Market
63
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.1
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
34.3%
Building Permits (2024)
6,765
Single-Family Permits
5,481

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
121.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
37.0
Good
Good Air Days
92%
1,001 of 1,091 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
35
2022
37
2023
39
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,588M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Double Branch Master-Planned Development (formerly Pasco Town Center)
Columnar Holdings
$600M Under Construction
Shady Hills Combined Cycle Facility Project (573 MW)
Shady Hills Energy Center, LLC (Seminole Electric Cooperative, Inc.)
$573M Operating
Amazon Robotic Sortation Center (ARSC)
Amazon
$150M Under Construction
Solar Farm Portfolio (Mountain View & Juniper Solar)
Tampa Electric Co.
$125M Operating
MiTek Manufacturing Facility
MiTek
$80M Planned
Target Fulfillment Center
Target Corporate Office (NorthPoint Development)
$60M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.3% 85 percentile
Population Growth +3.2% 96 percentile
Income Growth +8.8% 58 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 44 percentile
Home Price Change -4.7% 3 percentile
Rent Growth -1.8% 2 percentile
Price/Rent 10x 92 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Pasco County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Pasco County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #948 of 996 counties. Job growth at +3.1% and median household income of $63,187 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Pasco County affordable?

Housing in Pasco County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $233,600 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $1,282/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Pasco County growing or shrinking?

Pasco County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.2% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.1% clip. Home values shifted -4.7% in the past year.

Are people moving to Pasco County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.18% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Pasco County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Indian River County, FL 4 Sarasota County, FL 6 Manatee County, FL 2 Osceola County, FL 2 Lee County, FL 2 Hillsborough County, FL 7 Washington County, OR 4 Loudoun County, VA 4