RANK #832 / 1001 NAT · #28 / 41 FL · POP 611,444
1YR FORECAST: -2.8%
5YR OUTLOOK: +22%
Known for its extensive natural landscapes, Pasco County, Florida, offers a blend of coastal access and inland wilderness. Located just north of Tampa, it provides a quieter alternative to the nearby city, with a commute of about 30 miles. The county features 20 miles of shoreline, including barrier islands with beaches, and numerous parks and preserves like Jay B. Starkey Wilderness Park and Werner-Boyce Salt Springs State Park. These areas provide opportunities for hiking, biking, kayaking, and wildlife viewing. Towns like New Port Richey offer a historic riverfront feel, while Zephyrhills is known for its spring water and skydiving.
Pasco County's quality of life attracts families, retirees, and remote workers seeking a balance of natural beauty and suburban amenities. The public school system serves over 85,000 students across more than 100 schools. While many residents historically commuted to Tampa or St. Petersburg, the local economy is expanding. Recent developments include growth in commercial and residential sectors, as well as investments in industrial, logistics, and manufacturing. The county also has a public transportation system, GoPasco, offering fixed bus routes and paratransit services.
Pasco County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.5% matches the profile's typical -3.7%.
See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 21.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Double Branch Master-Planned Development (formerly Pasco Town Center)
Columnar Holdings
|
$600M | Under Construction |
|
Shady Hills Combined Cycle Facility Project (573 MW)
Shady Hills Energy Center, LLC (Seminole Electric Cooperative, Inc.)
|
$573M | Operating |
|
Amazon Robotic Sortation Center (ARSC)
Amazon
|
$150M | Under Construction |
|
Solar Farm Portfolio (Mountain View & Juniper Solar)
Tampa Electric Co.
|
$125M | Operating |
|
MiTek Manufacturing Facility
MiTek
|
$80M | Planned |
|
Target Fulfillment Center
Target Corporate Office (NorthPoint Development)
|
$60M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Pasco County scores just 16/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #832 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +3.5% and median household income of $70,492 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Pasco County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $300,900 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.23 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,505/month on average.
Pasco County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.9% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.5% clip. Home values shifted -3.5% in the past year.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.11% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Pasco County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.