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Clay County, FL

Orange Park

RANK #845 / 996 NAT  ·  #29 / 41 FL  ·  POP 219,650

1YR FORECAST: -1.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

Our model projects Clay County's housing market at -1.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Clay County?

Clay County, Florida, distinguishes itself with its abundance of natural water features, including Kingsley Lake, Lake Asbury, Doctors Lake, and Black Creek, which offer extensive opportunities for outdoor recreation like hiking, fishing, and water sports. Located southwest of Jacksonville, the county maintains a suburban and rural feel, despite its proximity to the larger city. Commuting to Jacksonville is common, with over half of Clay County's workforce traveling to other counties for work, resulting in an average commute time of approximately 33 minutes. The ongoing construction of the First Coast Expressway, with several interchanges within Clay County, aims to improve connectivity and ease travel.

Life in Clay County often appeals to families seeking a balance between suburban amenities and natural surroundings. The Clay County School District is recognized for its academic programs. Recent economic developments in the county are driven by significant investments in infrastructure, particularly with the First Coast Expressway project, which is fostering new residential, commercial, and industrial growth. There is also ongoing development in master-planned communities that include new housing and schools. The county's strategic location and available land are attracting businesses, contributing to job creation and supporting a growing population.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.9x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+5.9%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-2.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.0

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 7.9x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    School District of Clay County Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Parallon Business Solutions Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Orange Park Medical Center Healthcare
  4. 4
    St. Vincent's Clay Healthcare
  5. 5
    Walmart Retail
  6. 6
    bestbet Orange Park Hospitality
    500+
  7. 7
    VyStar Credit Union Finance
    250+
  8. 8
    Vac-Con, Inc. Manufacturing
  9. 9
    AT&T Services Technology
  10. 10
    Life Care Center of Orange Park Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Clay County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
219,650
+1.55% YoY
Median Household Income
$82,242
Median Home Value
$254,500
-1.96% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,372
Average Annual Pay
$54,688
+6.1% YoY
Employment
57,413
+2.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3232
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.6%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
27.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$340,000
Days on Market
84
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.6
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
17.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
31.7%
Building Permits (2024)
1,880
Single-Family Permits
1,863

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
93.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$2,395M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
First Coast Expressway (FCX) - Phase 3
Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT)
$1,900M Under Construction
IKO Industries Manufacturing Campus (Clay Hill)
IKO Industries Ltd.
$270M Under Construction
Solar Energy Centers (Magnolia Springs, Anhinga, Terrill Creek)
Florida Power & Light Company (FPL)
$225M Operating/Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +5.9% 90 percentile
Population Growth +1.6% 84 percentile
Income Growth +11.1% 90 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 77 percentile
Home Price Change -2.0% 15 percentile
Rent Growth +1.1% 21 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 70 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Clay County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Clay County scores just 14/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #845 of 996 counties. Job growth at +2.6% and median household income of $82,242 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Clay County affordable?

Housing in Clay County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $254,500 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.32, with rents averaging $1,372/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Clay County growing or shrinking?

Clay County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.6% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.6% clip. Home values shifted -2.0% in the past year.

Are people moving to Clay County?

In significant numbers — 5.6% of Clay County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Sumter County, FL 15 Collier County, FL 16 Broward County, FL 11 Citrus County, FL 18 Monroe County, FL 18 Marion County, FL 18 Deschutes County, OR 14 Union County, NC 14