RANK #792 / 1001 NAT · #25 / 41 FL · POP 227,584
1YR FORECAST: -2.1%
5YR OUTLOOK: +23%
Clay County, Florida, distinguishes itself with its abundance of natural water features, including Kingsley Lake, Lake Asbury, Doctors Lake, and Black Creek, which offer extensive opportunities for outdoor recreation like hiking, fishing, and water sports. Located southwest of Jacksonville, the county maintains a suburban and rural feel, despite its proximity to the larger city. Commuting to Jacksonville is common, with over half of Clay County's workforce traveling to other counties for work, resulting in an average commute time of approximately 33 minutes. The ongoing construction of the First Coast Expressway, with several interchanges within Clay County, aims to improve connectivity and ease travel.
Life in Clay County often appeals to families seeking a balance between suburban amenities and natural surroundings. The Clay County School District is recognized for its academic programs. Recent economic developments in the county are driven by significant investments in infrastructure, particularly with the First Coast Expressway project, which is fostering new residential, commercial, and industrial growth. There is also ongoing development in master-planned communities that include new housing and schools. The county's strategic location and available land are attracting businesses, contributing to job creation and supporting a growing population.
Clay County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -1.4% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.
See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Moderate climate & terrain
Below national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 20.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
First Coast Expressway (FCX) - Phase 3
Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT)
|
$1,900M | Under Construction |
|
IKO Industries Manufacturing Campus (Clay Hill)
IKO Industries Ltd.
|
$270M | Under Construction |
|
Solar Energy Centers (Magnolia Springs, Anhinga, Terrill Creek)
Florida Power & Light Company (FPL)
|
$225M | Operating/Proposed |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
At 20/100, Clay County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $87,820 combined with job growth of +0.4% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.
Housing in Clay County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $312,500 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,551/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.
Clay County's population is growing — up +1.9% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.4%). Home values shifted -1.4% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.
In significant numbers — 5.39% of Clay County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.