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Hillsborough County, FL

Tampa

RANK #916 / 996 NAT  ·  #33 / 41 FL  ·  POP 1,468,560

1YR FORECAST: -2.4%

5YR OUTLOOK: +11%

Our model projects Hillsborough County's housing market at -2.4% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Hillsborough County?

Hillsborough County, Florida, is a large area on Florida's west coast, with Tampa as its largest city and central hub. The county offers a mix of urban, suburban, and even rural communities, including notable towns like Plant City, known for its annual strawberry festival, and Apollo Beach, recognized for waterfront living. Commuting options within the county include the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit (HART) bus system, MetroRapid bus service, and the TECO Line Streetcar, which connects downtown Tampa, the Channel District, and Ybor City. The county boasts extensive natural amenities, with over 200 parks and nature preserves, and 700 miles of trails for hiking, biking, and other outdoor activities. Residents can enjoy year-round outdoor recreation due to the warm climate.

Life in Hillsborough County offers diverse communities and a range of lifestyles. The Hillsborough County Public Schools district is one of Florida's largest, providing various educational programs, including magnet and International Baccalaureate options. The economy has experienced growth, with major investment in sectors like education, energy, and infrastructure. The area attracts families, professionals, and retirees, with a strong job market in healthcare, finance, and technology. Tourism also plays a significant role, with Hillsborough County welcoming millions of visitors annually.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.6x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.6%

Above national median

Home Prices
-3.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.3

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
12x

Below national median (13x)

Housing looks undervalued at 3.6x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Publix Super Markets Retail
    50,000+
  2. 2
    State of Florida Government
    25,000+
  3. 3
    MacDill Air Force Base Military
  4. 4
    BayCare Health System Healthcare
  5. 5
    Hillsborough County Public Schools Education
  6. 6
    HCA West Florida Division Healthcare
    10,000+
  7. 7
    University of South Florida Education
  8. 8
    Hillsborough County Government Government
  9. 9
    JPMorgan Chase & Co. Finance
  10. 10
    Moffitt Cancer Center Healthcare
    5,000+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Hillsborough County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,468,560
+1.68% YoY
Median Household Income
$70,612
Median Home Value
$294,900
-3.94% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,413
Average Annual Pay
$75,256
+5.4% YoY
Employment
789,442
+1.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2394
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.84%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
36.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$410,000
Days on Market
62
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.5
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.8%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
15.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
33.5%
Building Permits (2024)
9,053
Single-Family Permits
4,402

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
12.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
86.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
51.0
Moderate
Good Air Days
45%
498 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
5
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
51
2022
51
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,711M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Community Investment Tax (CIT) Funded Infrastructure Projects
Hillsborough County
$1,340M Planned
City of Tampa CIT Funded Projects (Transportation, Public Safety, Parks)
City of Tampa
$783M Planned
Solar and Battery Storage Portfolio (Wimauma, Bullfrog Creek, Dover, English Creek, Riverside)
Tampa Electric Co.
$300M Operating
New Elementary and Middle Schools (Wimauma & Apollo Beach)
Hillsborough County Public Schools
$188M Planned
Southeast County Landfill Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Production Unit
Waga Energy
$50M Under Construction
Big Bend Natural Gas Power Plant Upgrade
Tampa Electric Co.
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.6% 66 percentile
Population Growth +1.7% 86 percentile
Income Growth +10.1% 80 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.5% 22 percentile
Home Price Change -3.9% 5 percentile
Rent Growth -1.1% 5 percentile
Price/Rent 12x 62 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Hillsborough County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Hillsborough County scores just 7/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #916 of 996 counties. Job growth at +1.2% and median household income of $70,612 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Hillsborough County affordable?

Hillsborough County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $294,900 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.24 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,413/month on average.

Is Hillsborough County growing or shrinking?

Hillsborough County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.7% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.2% clip. Home values shifted -3.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Hillsborough County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.84% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Hillsborough County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Columbia County, FL 7 Sarasota County, FL 6 Walton County, FL 9 Miami-Dade County, FL 10 Indian River County, FL 4 Pasco County, FL 4 Cobb County, GA 7 Fairfax County, VA 8