Bottom 50 Counties · Data updated April 2026

Lowest BTI Scores

The 50 lowest-scoring counties on the Boom Town Index — typically where housing costs have outpaced local economic fundamentals, quality of life, or job growth.

Lowest BTI Scores

Texas and California Lead the Cooling Trend

The sheer volume of Texas and California counties dominating this list signals a significant cooling in two of the nation's hottest housing markets. Rapid appreciation in recent years, particularly in major metros like Austin (Travis, Williamson, Hays) and Dallas (Collin), has pushed valuations to unsustainable levels, making a correction inevitable. Similarly, California's perennially expensive markets are seeing a pullback as affordability becomes a critical breaking point for buyers.

Denver's Unexpected Dip

Denver County landing at number one might surprise many, given its reputation for robust growth and desirable lifestyle. However, its top spot here reflects a market that has simply outrun its fundamentals. Years of intense demand and limited inventory drove prices sky-high, and now the market is recalibrating. The current cooling period is less about economic distress and more about a necessary adjustment to more sustainable valuations.

The Coastal California Conundrum

Counties like Santa Clara and San Mateo in California present an interesting tension. Despite their notoriously high home prices and low affordability ratios, they still appear on this "lowest score" list, indicating a market correction is underway even in these seemingly invincible areas. While long-term demand remains, the current environment suggests even these premium coastal markets are not immune to the broader trend of housing market cooling and price adjustments.

# County BTI Score 1yr Forecast 5yr Outlook GDP Growth Pop Growth Home Price
01 Denver County CO 0 -3.7% +0% — +0.7% -4.1%
02 Santa Clara County CA 0 -0.5% +2% — -0.1% -1.5%
03 Collin County TX 0 -3.7% +3% — +4.2% -6.3%
04 District of Columbia DC 0 -3.2% +4% — +1.4% -3.0%
05 Williamson County TX 0 -4.1% +5% — +4.5% -6.1%
06 King County WA 1 -1.6% +5% — +1.1% -2.7%
07 Travis County TX 1 -3.6% +5% — +1.7% -5.8%
08 Washington County OR 1 -2.8% +6% — +0.6% -3.0%
09 Arlington County VA 1 -1.3% +8% — +0.3% -0.5%
10 Humboldt County CA 1 -1.4% +8% — -0.7% -3.4%
11 Davidson County TN 1 -3.3% +8% — +0.8% -3.2%
12 Santa Barbara County CA 1 +0.2% +8% — -0.1% +1.6%
13 Alexandria city VA 1 -0.8% +9% — +0.1% +1.1%
14 San Mateo County CA 1 +0.4% +9% — -0.4% +0.6%
15 Buncombe County NC 2 -2.8% +9% — +0.9% -4.5%
16 Douglas County CO 2 -2.6% +9% — +2.4% -2.9%
17 Fairfax County VA 2 -1.1% +9% — +0.3% -1.4%
18 Boulder County CO 2 -0.9% +9% — +0.2% -2.9%
19 Hays County TX 2 -4.9% +10% — +4.8% -5.5%
20 Douglas County GA 2 -3.8% +11% — +1.2% -3.5%
21 Ventura County CA 2 -0.5% +11% — -0.1% -0.9%
22 Fort Bend County TX 2 -2.8% +11% — +4.0% -2.3%
23 Adams County CO 2 -3.0% +11% — +1.1% -3.8%
24 Larimer County CO 2 -1.0% +12% — +1.1% -1.6%
25 Waller County TX 2 -3.0% +12% — +3.5% -2.0%
26 Arapahoe County CO 3 -3.1% +12% — +0.6% -3.5%
27 Carson City NV 3 -0.0% +12% — +0.0% +0.3%
28 St. Charles Parish LA 3 -2.7% +12% — -0.9% +1.4%
29 Comal County TX 3 -3.3% +12% — +5.3% -1.7%
30 Denton County TX 3 -3.3% +13% — +3.6% -4.8%
31 Orange County FL 3 -2.5% +13% — +2.2% -3.0%
32 Jefferson County CO 3 -2.7% +13% — -0.1% -2.4%
33 Durham County NC 3 -1.8% +13% — +0.9% -2.8%
34 Bexar County TX 3 -4.2% +14% — +1.5% -2.3%
35 Union County OH 4 -1.3% +14% — +3.1% +1.3%
36 Mendocino County CA 4 -1.3% +14% — -0.5% -0.8%
37 Manatee County FL 4 -2.8% +14% — +3.3% -6.5%
38 Webb County TX 4 -2.0% +14% — +0.6% +2.7%
39 Los Angeles County CA 4 -1.4% +14% — -0.4% -0.3%
40 Benton County OR 4 -1.4% +14% — -0.1% -0.3%
41 Sonoma County CA 4 -0.5% +14% — -0.1% -2.1%
42 Chatham County NC 4 -1.0% +15% — +2.3% +0.3%
43 Rockwall County TX 4 -3.0% +15% — +5.7% -2.7%
44 San Patricio County TX 4 -3.6% +15% — +0.9% +1.3%
45 Laurel County KY 4 -0.6% +15% — +0.4% -1.6%
46 Yolo County CA 5 -2.5% +15% — +1.3% -1.5%
47 Wake County NC 5 -1.5% +15% — +2.4% -2.2%
48 Wise County TX 5 -3.6% +15% — +3.7% -2.0%
49 Hillsborough County FL 5 -3.0% +15% — +2.2% -3.2%
50 Butler County PA 5 -0.8% +15% — +0.7% +1.1%

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