Bottom 50 Counties · Data updated July 2026

Lowest BTI Scores

The 50 lowest-scoring counties on the Boom Town Index — typically where housing costs have outpaced local economic fundamentals, quality of life, or job growth.

Lowest BTI Scores

Texas and California Lead the Cooling Trend

The sheer volume of Texas and California counties dominating this list signals a significant cooling in two of the nation's hottest housing markets. Rapid appreciation in recent years, particularly in major metros like Austin (Travis, Williamson, Hays) and Dallas (Collin), has pushed valuations to unsustainable levels, making a correction inevitable. Similarly, California's perennially expensive markets are seeing a pullback as affordability becomes a critical breaking point for buyers.

Denver's Unexpected Dip

Denver County landing at number one might surprise many, given its reputation for robust growth and desirable lifestyle. However, its top spot here reflects a market that has simply outrun its fundamentals. Years of intense demand and limited inventory drove prices sky-high, and now the market is recalibrating. The current cooling period is less about economic distress and more about a necessary adjustment to more sustainable valuations.

The Coastal California Conundrum

Counties like Santa Clara and San Mateo in California present an interesting tension. Despite their notoriously high home prices and low affordability ratios, they still appear on this "lowest score" list, indicating a market correction is underway even in these seemingly invincible areas. While long-term demand remains, the current environment suggests even these premium coastal markets are not immune to the broader trend of housing market cooling and price adjustments.

# County BTI Score 1yr Forecast 5yr Outlook GDP Growth Pop Growth Home Price
01 Cherokee County SC 0 -1.5% +2% — +0.6% -3.8%
02 San Francisco County CA 0 +12.5% +4% — -0.7% +11.6%
03 Maverick County TX 0 -0.0% +5% — +0.5% -2.1%
04 Bexar County TX 0 -2.4% +6% — +1.5% -2.2%
05 Hawkins County TN 0 +6.9% +7% — +0.9% +5.4%
06 Wise County TX 1 -0.2% +7% — +3.7% -0.9%
07 McKinley County NM 1 +0.2% +7% — -1.0% -1.8%
08 Henry County VA 1 -1.6% +8% — -0.8% -4.6%
09 Henderson County TX 1 -1.8% +8% — +1.4% -3.1%
10 Santa Barbara County CA 1 +3.3% +8% — -0.1% +3.4%
11 Waller County TX 1 -1.0% +8% — +3.5% -2.2%
12 Tom Green County TX 1 -3.6% +9% — +0.1% -2.3%
13 Mendocino County CA 1 -0.4% +9% — -0.5% -0.4%
14 Humboldt County CA 1 -1.3% +9% — -0.7% -2.2%
15 Jones County MS 2 -0.7% +9% — -0.6% -1.7%
16 Effingham County GA 2 +0.5% +9% — +2.8% -1.6%
17 San Mateo County CA 2 +3.9% +9% — -0.4% +2.5%
18 Alexandria city VA 2 +3.9% +9% — +0.1% +1.5%
19 Williamson County TX 2 -2.5% +9% — +4.5% -5.8%
20 McMinn County TN 2 +3.2% +9% — +1.4% +4.2%
21 District of Columbia DC 2 +0.2% +10% — +1.4% -1.7%
22 Jefferson County AR 2 +0.3% +10% — -1.5% -1.1%
23 Davidson County TN 2 -0.8% +10% — +0.8% -3.1%
24 Washington County OR 2 -1.8% +10% — +0.6% -2.3%
25 Comal County TX 2 -1.5% +11% — +5.3% -1.3%
26 Denver County CO 3 -1.5% +11% — +0.7% -2.6%
27 Washington County OK 3 +4.4% +11% — +0.8% +5.8%
28 Henry County GA 3 +0.1% +11% — +1.9% -2.6%
29 Grayson County TX 3 -2.9% +11% — +2.4% -4.9%
30 Midland County TX 3 +3.3% +11% — +1.9% +1.6%
31 Bastrop County TX 3 -2.3% +11% — +4.1% -4.7%
32 Adams County CO 3 -2.3% +11% — +1.1% -3.1%
33 Hays County TX 3 -2.3% +11% — +4.8% -4.3%
34 Collin County TX 3 -2.3% +11% — +4.2% -5.5%
35 Bell County TX 4 -1.9% +11% — +1.9% -1.8%
36 Anderson County TN 4 +2.7% +11% — +1.2% +3.9%
37 Walker County AL 4 +2.8% +11% — -0.1% +1.8%
38 Harrison County TX 4 -0.1% +11% — +0.8% -0.9%
39 Durham County NC 4 -0.5% +11% — +0.9% -3.4%
40 Jefferson Parish LA 4 +1.6% +11% — -0.4% +6.5%
41 Hardin County KY 4 +0.8% +11% — +0.4% -3.6%
42 Chatham County NC 4 +4.5% +12% — +2.3% +0.0%
43 Guadalupe County TX 4 -0.6% +12% — +3.0% -2.1%
44 Ventura County CA 4 +2.7% +12% — -0.1% +0.2%
45 Ector County TX 4 +0.8% +12% — +0.9% +4.9%
46 Rockdale County GA 5 +0.7% +12% — +1.1% -1.8%
47 Arapahoe County CO 5 -1.7% +12% — +0.6% -2.6%
48 Los Angeles County CA 5 +1.3% +12% — -0.4% +0.5%
49 Fort Bend County TX 5 -0.7% +12% — +4.0% -2.1%
50 Buncombe County NC 5 -0.9% +12% — +0.9% -4.4%

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