Bottom 50 Counties · Data updated August 2026

Lowest BTI Scores

The 50 lowest-scoring counties on the Boom Town Index — typically where housing costs have outpaced local economic fundamentals, quality of life, or job growth.

Lowest BTI Scores

Texas Takes the Brunt of Cooling Markets

Nearly 40% of the counties on this list are in Texas, signaling a significant cooling trend across the state. Rapid population growth in areas like Denton and Bexar Counties likely outpaced infrastructure and job growth, leading to overvalued housing markets now experiencing corrections. This concentration suggests a broad recalibration of home prices after a period of intense demand.

Alexandria City's Unexpected Chill

It's surprising to see Alexandria City, VA, at the top of this list given its reputation as a stable, affluent D.C. suburb. Its high median home price of $735,100, combined with modest population and GDP growth, points to a market where valuations may have stretched beyond sustainable levels. This suggests even premium markets aren't immune to a housing cool-down.

The Affordability Paradox in Humboldt County

Humboldt County, CA, presents an interesting tension: despite a relatively high median home price for its region, its affordability ratio of 0.14 indicates a significant disconnect between local incomes and housing costs. This suggests that while housing values may be declining, they remain out of reach for many residents, contributing to a stagnant or declining market as potential buyers are priced out.

# County BTI Score 1yr Forecast 5yr Outlook GDP Growth Pop Growth Home Price
01 Alexandria city VA 0 +1.3% -1% +0.7% +0.8% +1.8%
02 Waller County TX 0 -3.2% +0% -2.1% +5.7% -1.9%
03 Ector County TX 0 -1.2% +1% +3.0% +1.8% +4.4%
04 Broomfield County CO 0 -1.9% +2% +0.4% +1.0% -0.8%
05 Bexar County TX 0 -3.4% +2% +3.5% +1.0% -2.2%
06 Henry County VA 1 -1.1% +3% — -0.6% -4.3%
07 Walker County AL 1 -2.2% +4% +4.7% +0.0% +2.7%
08 Tom Green County TX 1 -2.5% +5% +3.0% +0.3% -3.4%
09 Denton County TX 1 -2.5% +5% +1.9% +2.2% -3.1%
10 Washington County OK 1 +1.2% +5% +18.4% +0.3% +5.8%
11 Grayson County TX 1 -3.8% +5% +5.7% +1.8% -4.8%
12 Bell County TX 1 -3.0% +6% +4.5% +1.2% -1.9%
13 Hawkins County TN 1 +1.8% +6% +6.5% +0.2% +6.0%
14 Humboldt County CA 1 -2.8% +6% +4.3% -0.5% -2.2%
15 Starr County TX 2 -1.1% +6% -2.9% -0.1% +1.2%
16 Effingham County GA 2 -1.1% +6% -0.8% +1.4% -1.6%
17 Hardin County KY 2 -1.3% +6% -0.3% +0.7% -3.3%
18 Albemarle County VA 2 +0.6% +6% — +0.9% +1.9%
19 Athens County OH 2 +1.6% +6% +2.5% +0.2% +3.9%
20 Franklin County VT 2 -0.5% +7% +3.3% +0.1% +1.5%
21 Collin County TX 2 -3.1% +7% +5.5% +3.4% -5.1%
22 Polk County TX 2 -2.5% +7% +1.8% -0.1% -3.9%
23 Hays County TX 2 -4.0% +7% +7.3% +3.4% -3.9%
24 Santa Clara County CA 2 +1.4% +7% +6.1% +0.3% +0.3%
25 Santa Barbara County CA 2 +0.5% +7% +4.4% -0.2% +4.0%
26 Burnet County TX 3 -3.4% +8% +0.5% +1.8% -2.1%
27 Chatham County NC 3 -0.1% +8% +1.3% +1.5% +0.3%
28 Rusk County TX 3 -0.5% +8% -7.3% +0.4% +4.8%
29 Comal County TX 3 -2.8% +8% +6.7% +3.8% -1.2%
30 Durham County NC 3 -1.2% +8% +5.9% +1.4% -3.4%
31 Bastrop County TX 3 -3.0% +8% +3.8% +2.6% -4.7%
32 Grant County WA 3 -2.0% +8% +0.8% +0.8% +0.1%
33 Pasco County FL 3 -3.2% +8% +5.3% +2.8% -2.1%
34 Wise County TX 3 -2.3% +8% -4.5% +3.1% -0.5%
35 McMinn County TN 4 -0.5% +8% +2.3% +1.2% +4.2%
36 Lee County FL 4 -3.3% +9% +3.4% +1.6% -4.4%
37 Tipton County TN 4 -0.4% +9% +0.1% -0.0% +1.7%
38 Arlington County VA 4 +1.5% +9% +1.4% +1.8% +0.8%
39 Hamilton County TN 4 -1.2% +9% +0.7% +0.9% -0.9%
40 Orleans Parish LA 4 -1.2% +10% +0.9% -0.4% -1.9%
41 Arapahoe County CO 4 -2.2% +10% +1.4% -0.3% -2.2%
42 Williamson County TX 4 -2.2% +10% +6.0% +3.3% -5.3%
43 Liberty County TX 4 -1.8% +10% +3.5% +4.4% -2.6%
44 Fairfax County VA 4 +1.6% +10% — +0.7% +0.8%
45 Cleveland County NC 4 -2.5% +10% +1.8% +0.8% -0.0%
46 Floyd County GA 5 +0.5% +10% +1.6% +0.2% +1.9%
47 Chittenden County VT 5 -0.8% +10% +2.5% -0.3% -0.1%
48 Cherokee County SC 5 -1.8% +10% +5.5% +0.7% -2.9%
49 Cass County ND 5 +2.6% +10% +2.7% +1.3% +3.9%
50 Henderson County TX 5 -2.1% +10% +4.4% +1.1% -2.3%
50
Counties ranked
Cite this ranking

BoomTownIndex, “Lowest BTI Scores.” Data: August 2026. https://boomtownindex.com/rankings/lowest-bti-scores/

Free to reference with a link. See methodology →

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