RANK #988 / 1001 NAT · POP 681,294
1YR FORECAST: -3.2%
5YR OUTLOOK: +4%
The decline in the District of Columbia's real estate market is primarily driven by a significant shift in the employment landscape, particularly within the federal government and related white-collar sectors. Since 2020, the rise of remote and hybrid work models has drastically reduced the demand for traditional office space. This trend was exacerbated by federal job cuts under the Trump administration, with over 200,000 federal worker positions eliminated and an additional 75,000 employees accepting buyouts by March 2025. This exodus of federal workers and the broader decline in office-using jobs, which saw a 1.3% year-over-year decrease by the end of 2025, have created a surplus of vacant commercial properties.
The current market reflects a challenging environment for commercial real estate, with office vacancy rates reaching 20.4% by the end of 2025, a 100-basis point increase year-over-year. Class A office rents declined 2.4% year-to-date in 2024, though overall asking rents saw a modest 1.9% increase over 2025 after three years of decline. This has led to a substantial decrease in property values, with 85.3% of high-value office buildings experiencing a decline by 2025, totaling a $6.9 billion loss and a $143.2 million reduction in real property tax collections. However, some developers are converting vacant office buildings into residential units, a trend that may offer a path to stabilization.
District of Columbia's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -3.0% YoY, population +1.4%, wages +4.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.
See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →Below national median (11.3x)
Prices declining
Below-average climate & terrain
Prices detached from rents
Housing is fairly valued at 5.2x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
DC Water Capital Improvement Plan (FY2024-2033)
DC Water
|
$7,740M | Planned |
|
Downtown Action Plan & Office-to-Residential Conversions
District of Columbia Government
|
$400M | Under Construction |
|
Washington Gas Modified District SAFE Plan
Washington Gas
|
$150M | Approved |
|
Community Solar Portfolio (Multiple Projects)
Various (e.g., Aligned Climate Capital, Black Bear Energy, Catholic University)
|
$60M | Operating/Under Construction |
|
DC Venture Capital Program
K Street Capital, District of Columbia
|
$52M | Operating |
|
The Geneva (Office-to-Residential Conversion)
Undisclosed Developer
|
$50M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — District of Columbia scores just 0/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #988 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -2.3% and median household income of $109,870 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Affordability is a real challenge in District of Columbia. The median home is valued at $737,100 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.15, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $1,954/month.
District of Columbia is attracting residents (population +1.4% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -2.3%. Housing values changed -3.0% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.