14 / 100

Osceola County, FL

RANK #858 / 1001 NAT  ·  #30 / 41 FL  ·  POP 427,415

1YR FORECAST: -1.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

#7 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Osceola County's housing market at -1.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Osceola County?

Kissimmee, the county seat of Osceola County, Florida, offers a blend of historic charm and access to major attractions. Located south of Orlando, the commute to downtown Orlando typically takes 25-35 minutes via Florida's Turnpike or US 441, with SunRail providing a commuter rail option. The community maintains a "small-town hospitality" feel despite its proximity to larger urban centers. Osceola County boasts extensive natural amenities, including the headwaters of the Florida Everglades at Shingle Creek Regional Park, offering opportunities for hiking, biking, canoeing, and kayaking. Lake Tohopekaliga is another prominent feature, known for boating and fishing. The county also features over 40 parks and recreation facilities.

Life in Osceola County attracts a diverse population, including families and those seeking a balance of affordability and access to amenities. The School District of Osceola County serves over 80,000 students across 60 schools, offering various academic and career programs. The economy, historically reliant on tourism and agriculture, is diversifying. Recent developments include a focus on advanced technology and manufacturing, particularly at NeoCity, a 500-acre high-tech campus. This initiative aims to create technology-focused jobs and stimulate economic growth across various sectors.

MARKET PROFILE

Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction

Osceola County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — near the profile average on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -4.3% runs below the profile's typical -3.7%.

See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
23.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-4.3%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 23.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    The School District of Osceola County Education
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Walmart Retail
    2,500+
  3. 3
    The Walt Disney Company Hospitality
  4. 4
    AdventHealth System Healthcare
  5. 5
    Publix Super Markets Retail
    1,000+
  6. 6
    Gaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center Hospitality
  7. 7
    HCA Healthcare Healthcare
  8. 8
    Osceola County Government Government
  9. 9
    Goodwill Industries of Central Florida Other
  10. 10
    Westgate Resorts Hospitality

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Osceola County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
427,415
+5.03% YoY
Median Household Income
$72,637
Median Home Value
$353,300
-4.27% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,746
Average Annual Pay
$54,973
+4.7% YoY
Employment
117,739
+1.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2056
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.93%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
29.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$385,510
Days on Market
62
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.6
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.6%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
27.0%
Building Permits (2025)
7,366
Single-Family Permits
5,085

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
9.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
70.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
34.3
Good
Good Air Days
95%
1,017 of 1,075 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
33
2022
34
2023
36
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,734M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
US Development Data Center Campus
US Development
$1,000M Planned
East Osceola County Infrastructure Agreement (Edgewater East and West)
BTI Partners, Osceola County, City of St. Cloud
$261M Planned
Osceola County Solar Portfolio (3 projects)
Invenergy, Harmony Florida Solar LLC
$224M Operating/Under Construction
NeoCity Development (Center for Neovation & BRIDG)
Osceola County, SkyWater Technology, BRIDG, imec
$200M Operating
La Rosa Holdings Corp. AI Data Center
La Rosa Holdings Corp.
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +5.0% 99 percentile
Income Growth +5.7% 94 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 12 percentile
Home Price Change -4.3% 3 percentile
Rent Growth +0.7% 16 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 66 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Osceola County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Osceola County scores just 14/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #858 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +1.6% and median household income of $72,637 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Osceola County affordable?

Osceola County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $353,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.21 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,746/month on average.

Is Osceola County growing or shrinking?

Osceola County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +5.0% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.6% clip. Home values shifted -4.3% in the past year.

Are people moving to Osceola County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.93% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Osceola County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Hernando County, FL 14 Marion County, FL 13 Pasco County, FL 16 Citrus County, FL 12 Highlands County, FL 11 St. Johns County, FL 18 Placer County, CA 14 Lane County, OR 14