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San Mateo County, CA

RANK #967 / 996 NAT  ·  #40 / 43 CA  ·  POP 754,250

1YR FORECAST: -0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +6%

#12 Best Climate & Terrain #23 Highest GDP Growth
Our model projects San Mateo County's housing market at -0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why San Mateo County?

Redwood City, the county seat, boasts the slogan "Climate Best by Government Test" due to its 255 sunny days per year. San Mateo County sits on the San Francisco Peninsula, bordered by the Pacific Ocean and San Francisco Bay. It is approximately 25 miles south of San Francisco and north of San Jose, with commute options including Caltrain, BART, SamTrans buses, and various shuttle services. The community offers a blend of urban and suburban environments, with significant rural and coastal areas. Outdoor recreation is a major draw, with nearly three-quarters of the county designated as open space. Residents can explore redwood forests, coastal trails, and tide pools at places like Crystal Springs Regional Trail, Coyote Point Recreation Area, and Fitzgerald Marine Reserve.

Life in the county is shaped by its proximity to Silicon Valley and a diverse economy. Many families reside here, with 23 public school districts and three community colleges serving the area. The economy is stable, with ongoing investments in sectors like biotechnology and artificial intelligence. Recent initiatives aim to support local businesses and help residents, including recent graduates, find employment through wage subsidies. The county also sees continuous investment in commercial and residential development, healthcare, and infrastructure.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.5x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+9.7%

Well above national median

Home Prices
+0.0%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
8.2

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
34x

Speculative pricing

Housing is fairly valued at 5.5x relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Genentech Healthcare
  3. 3
    Oracle Technology
    5,000+
  4. 4
    County of San Mateo Government
  5. 5
    San Francisco International Airport (SFO) Government
    2,500+
  6. 6
    Gilead Sciences Healthcare
  7. 7
    Meta (Facebook) Technology
    1,000+
  8. 8
    Visa Finance
  9. 9
    Franklin Resources (Franklin Templeton) Finance
  10. 10
    Electronic Arts (EA) Technology

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

San Mateo County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
754,250
-1.08% YoY
Median Household Income
$149,907
Median Home Value
$1,441,300
+0.02% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,805
Average Annual Pay
$196,441
+12.7% YoY
Employment
416,422
-1.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.104
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.97%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
52.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$1,585,000
Days on Market
13
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
1.9
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
105.0%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
58.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
17.1%
Building Permits (2024)
1,088
Single-Family Permits
521

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.1
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
4.1
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
43.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
34.3
Good
Good Air Days
83%
912 of 1,093 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
0
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
36
2022
36
2023
31
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,302M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
SamTrans 10-Year Capital Program
San Mateo County Transit District (SamTrans)
$2,000M Planned
Hillsdale Shopping Center Redevelopment
Undisclosed
$500M Planned
San Mateo Residential Developments (Multiple Projects)
Various Developers (e.g., Pulte Homes, KEMS Real Estate Development, SDG Architects, Terra Holdings Corp.)
$300M Proposed/Under Construction
Wright Solar Project
Centaurus Renewable Energy LLC (power purchased by Peninsula Clean Energy)
$200M Operating
Cordilleras Mental Health Facility
San Mateo County Joint Powers Financing Authority (JPFA)
$155M Completed
Gonzaga Ridge Wind Farm (repowering)
Scout Clean Energy and Peninsula Clean Energy
$148M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +9.7% 98 percentile
Population Growth -1.1% 3 percentile
Income Growth +9.6% 74 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 19 percentile
Home Price Change +0.0% 31 percentile
Rent Growth +5.2% 81 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is San Mateo County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — San Mateo County scores just 2/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #967 of 996 counties. Job growth at -1.0% and median household income of $149,907 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is San Mateo County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in San Mateo County. The median home is valued at $1,441,300 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.10, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,805/month.

Is San Mateo County growing or shrinking?

San Mateo County is losing population (-1.1% YoY) while the job market is essentially flat (-1.0% employment change). Home values are +0.0% over the past 12 months. A slow-bleed pattern — not a collapse, but residents are leaving faster than employers are hiring.

Are people moving to San Mateo County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.97% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests San Mateo County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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