RANK #978 / 1001 NAT · #40 / 43 CA · POP 742,340
1YR FORECAST: +0.4%
5YR OUTLOOK: +9%
Redwood City, the county seat, boasts the slogan "Climate Best by Government Test" due to its 255 sunny days per year. San Mateo County sits on the San Francisco Peninsula, bordered by the Pacific Ocean and San Francisco Bay. It is approximately 25 miles south of San Francisco and north of San Jose, with commute options including Caltrain, BART, SamTrans buses, and various shuttle services. The community offers a blend of urban and suburban environments, with significant rural and coastal areas. Outdoor recreation is a major draw, with nearly three-quarters of the county designated as open space. Residents can explore redwood forests, coastal trails, and tide pools at places like Crystal Springs Regional Trail, Coyote Point Recreation Area, and Fitzgerald Marine Reserve.
Life in the county is shaped by its proximity to Silicon Valley and a diverse economy. Many families reside here, with 23 public school districts and three community colleges serving the area. The economy is stable, with ongoing investments in sectors like biotechnology and artificial intelligence. Recent initiatives aim to support local businesses and help residents, including recent graduates, find employment through wage subsidies. The county also sees continuous investment in commercial and residential development, healthcare, and infrastructure.
San Mateo County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +0.6% runs above the profile's typical -0.8%.
See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Well below national median
Speculative pricing
Housing looks overvalued at 13.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
SamTrans 10-Year Capital Program
San Mateo County Transit District (SamTrans)
|
$2,000M | Planned |
|
Hillsdale Shopping Center Redevelopment
Undisclosed
|
$500M | Planned |
|
San Mateo Residential Developments (Multiple Projects)
Various Developers (e.g., Pulte Homes, KEMS Real Estate Development, SDG Architects, Terra Holdings Corp.)
|
$300M | Proposed/Under Construction |
|
Wright Solar Project
Centaurus Renewable Energy LLC (power purchased by Peninsula Clean Energy)
|
$200M | Operating |
|
Cordilleras Mental Health Facility
San Mateo County Joint Powers Financing Authority (JPFA)
|
$155M | Completed |
|
Gonzaga Ridge Wind Farm (repowering)
Scout Clean Energy and Peninsula Clean Energy
|
$148M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — San Mateo County scores just 1/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #978 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -1.2% and median household income of $158,855 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Affordability is a real challenge in San Mateo County. The median home is valued at $1,559,600 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.10, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,922/month.
San Mateo County's job market is contracting (-1.2% YoY) while population is roughly stable (-0.4% change). Home values are +0.6% over the past 12 months. Hiring headwinds without an offsetting exodus — residents are staying, but local employers are shedding payroll.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.85% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests San Mateo County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.