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Arapahoe County, CO

RANK #966 / 1001 NAT  ·  #9 / 15 CO  ·  POP 659,844

1YR FORECAST: -3.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

Our model projects Arapahoe County's housing market at -3.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Arapahoe County?

Arapahoe County, Colorado, distinguishes itself as "Colorado's First County," with origins predating the Pike's Peak Gold Rush in 1858. Located immediately south and east of Denver, the county offers a blend of urban, suburban, and rural environments. Commuting throughout the Denver metro area is facilitated by major roadways, interstate highways, and the E-470 toll road, alongside RTD Light Rail and bus services. The community provides extensive outdoor recreation, with Cherry Creek State Park offering an 880-acre reservoir for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with miles of trails. Other natural amenities include the High Line Canal Trail and the South Platte River, popular for various activities.

Life in Arapahoe County appeals to families and professionals, with highly-rated public schools, including those in the Cherry Creek and Littleton Public School Districts. The county is actively expanding its transportation options, including micro-transit and micromobility services, to better connect residents. The economy is driven by sectors such as technology, aerospace, healthcare, and professional services, attracting businesses and job seekers. Recent economic developments include a focus on business attraction, retention, and infrastructure enhancement, contributing to job growth in the region.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Arapahoe County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.5% runs below the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
12.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-3.5%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
26x

Speculative pricing

Housing looks overvalued at 12.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    HealthONE (Swedish Medical Center, Medical Center of Aurora, & Spalding Rehabilitation Center) Healthcare
    2,500+
  2. 2
    UnitedHealthcare Healthcare
  3. 3
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
  4. 4
    Centura Health (Corporate Headquarters & Littleton Adventist Hospital) Healthcare
  5. 5
    Raytheon Company Technology
  6. 6
    Arrow Electronics Technology
    1,000+
  7. 7
    Comcast Technology
  8. 8
    Empower Retirement Finance
  9. 9
    Arapahoe County Government Government
  10. 10
    Cherry Creek School District Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Arapahoe County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
659,844
+0.63% YoY
Median Household Income
$101,087
Median Home Value
$561,200
-3.48% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,891
Average Annual Pay
$88,818
+3.7% YoY
Employment
340,875
+0.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1801
Near national average
Migration Inflow
5.52%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
46.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$560,000
Days on Market
20
Active market
Months of Supply
2.8
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
30.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
43.3%
Building Permits (2025)
3,599
Single-Family Permits
1,735

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
83.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
46.3
Good
Good Air Days
64%
696 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
57
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
46
2023
47
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,125M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Aurora-Denver Campus Data Center
QTS Data Centers
$500M Operating
Front Range Energy Storage System
Plus Power/Front Range Energy Storage LLC
$250M Planned
Adams County Wind Project (portion in Arapahoe County)
NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
$200M Proposed
Hunter Solar Farm
Hunter Solar, LLC
$75M Operating
Arapahoe Combined Cycle Natural Gas Plant (CORE Energy Purchase)
CORE Electric Cooperative
$50M Operating
Sky Ranch Master-Planned Community
Various Home Builders
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.6% 50 percentile
Income Growth +4.0% 78 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 35 percentile
Home Price Change -3.5% 4 percentile
Rent Growth -1.4% 4 percentile
Price/Rent 26x 3 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arapahoe County, CO a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Arapahoe County scores just 3/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #966 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.3% and median household income of $101,087 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Arapahoe County affordable?

Arapahoe County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $561,200 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.18 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,891/month on average.

Is Arapahoe County growing or shrinking?

Arapahoe County's population is growing — up +0.6% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.3%). Home values shifted -3.5% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Arapahoe County?

In significant numbers — 5.52% of Arapahoe County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Jefferson County, CO 3 Larimer County, CO 2 Adams County, CO 2 Boulder County, CO 2 Douglas County, CO 2 El Paso County, CO 6 Denton County, TX 3 Durham County, NC 3