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Arapahoe County, CO

South Aurora

RANK #892 / 996 NAT  ·  #7 / 15 CO  ·  POP 654,453

1YR FORECAST: -2.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +12%

Our model projects Arapahoe County's housing market at -2.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Arapahoe County?

Arapahoe County, Colorado, distinguishes itself as "Colorado's First County," with origins predating the Pike's Peak Gold Rush in 1858. Located immediately south and east of Denver, the county offers a blend of urban, suburban, and rural environments. Commuting throughout the Denver metro area is facilitated by major roadways, interstate highways, and the E-470 toll road, alongside RTD Light Rail and bus services. The community provides extensive outdoor recreation, with Cherry Creek State Park offering an 880-acre reservoir for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with miles of trails. Other natural amenities include the High Line Canal Trail and the South Platte River, popular for various activities.

Life in Arapahoe County appeals to families and professionals, with highly-rated public schools, including those in the Cherry Creek and Littleton Public School Districts. The county is actively expanding its transportation options, including micro-transit and micromobility services, to better connect residents. The economy is driven by sectors such as technology, aerospace, healthcare, and professional services, attracting businesses and job seekers. Recent economic developments include a focus on business attraction, retention, and infrastructure enhancement, contributing to job growth in the region.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.8x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+1.4%

Below national median

Home Prices
-3.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.4

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
23x

Prices detached from rents

Housing is fairly valued at 5.8x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    HealthONE (Swedish Medical Center, Medical Center of Aurora, & Spalding Rehabilitation Center) Healthcare
    2,500+
  2. 2
    UnitedHealthcare Healthcare
  3. 3
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
  4. 4
    Centura Health (Corporate Headquarters & Littleton Adventist Hospital) Healthcare
  5. 5
    Raytheon Company Technology
  6. 6
    Arrow Electronics Technology
    1,000+
  7. 7
    Comcast Technology
  8. 8
    Empower Retirement Finance
  9. 9
    Arapahoe County Government Government
  10. 10
    Cherry Creek School District Education

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Arapahoe County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
654,453
+0.43% YoY
Median Household Income
$92,292
Median Home Value
$480,500
-3.78% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,708
Average Annual Pay
$85,628
+2.5% YoY
Employment
339,996
-0.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1921
Near national average
Migration Inflow
5.78%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
44.9%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$517,424
Days on Market
46
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.0
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.6%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
23.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.5%
Building Permits (2024)
3,856
Single-Family Permits
2,362

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.8
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
83.0
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
46.3
Good
Good Air Days
64%
696 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
57
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
46
2023
47
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,125M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Aurora-Denver Campus Data Center
QTS Data Centers
$500M Operating
Front Range Energy Storage System
Plus Power/Front Range Energy Storage LLC
$250M Planned
Adams County Wind Project (portion in Arapahoe County)
NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
$200M Proposed
Hunter Solar Farm
Hunter Solar, LLC
$75M Operating
Arapahoe Combined Cycle Natural Gas Plant (CORE Energy Purchase)
CORE Electric Cooperative
$50M Operating
Sky Ranch Master-Planned Community
Various Home Builders
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.4% 24 percentile
Population Growth +0.4% 49 percentile
Income Growth +8.7% 54 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.1% 46 percentile
Home Price Change -3.8% 6 percentile
Rent Growth -1.3% 4 percentile
Price/Rent 23x 4 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Arapahoe County, CO a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Arapahoe County scores just 10/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #892 of 996 counties. Job growth at -0.2% and median household income of $92,292 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Arapahoe County affordable?

Arapahoe County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $480,500 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,708/month on average.

Is Arapahoe County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Arapahoe County are both close to flat — population +0.4% YoY and jobs -0.2%. Home values shifted -3.8% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Arapahoe County?

In significant numbers — 5.78% of Arapahoe County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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