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Douglas County, CO

Sedalia

RANK #944 / 996 NAT  ·  #13 / 15 CO  ·  POP 360,206

1YR FORECAST: -2.4%

5YR OUTLOOK: +9%

Our model projects Douglas County's housing market at -2.4% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Douglas County?

Douglas County, Colorado, is often recognized for its natural amenities and quality of life, frequently ranking among the healthiest counties in the state. Situated between Denver and Colorado Springs, the county seat, Castle Rock, serves as a central hub. Commuting to Denver is common, with Interstate 25 being a primary route, though traffic congestion can occur during peak hours. The community offers a blend of suburban and rural living with extensive outdoor recreation opportunities, including over 48,000 acres of protected open space, hundreds of miles of trails, and access to three state parks: Castlewood Canyon, Chatfield, and Roxborough. The South Platte River also provides opportunities for fishing, kayaking, and wildlife viewing.

Life in Douglas County appeals to families, with highly rated public schools, including numerous charter and magnet options. The county has experienced significant population growth, drawing residents seeking a family-friendly environment and access to outdoor activities. The economy is driven by a mix of sectors, with recent developments focusing on commercial and residential growth. There is also ongoing investment in infrastructure to support new development, including wastewater systems. Efforts are underway to streamline processes for commercial and industrial development, aiming to enhance the business environment.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+3.0%

Above national median

Home Prices
-2.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
5.2

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
25x

Speculative pricing

Housing looks overvalued at 9.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Charles Schwab Finance
    2,500+
  2. 2
    EchoStar Technology
  3. 3
    Lockheed Martin Corporation Manufacturing
    1,000+
  4. 4
    AdventHealth Healthcare
  5. 5
    HCA HealthONE Healthcare
  6. 6
    Kiewit Companies Other
  7. 7
    VISA Debit Processing Services Finance
  8. 8
    Wind Crest Healthcare
    500+
  9. 9
    Kaiser Permanente Healthcare
  10. 10
    Zynex Medical Group Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Douglas County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
360,206
+2.35% YoY
Median Household Income
$139,010
Median Home Value
$635,100
-2.91% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,953
Average Annual Pay
$84,978
+5.5% YoY
Employment
147,461
+3.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2189
Near national average
Migration Inflow
5.18%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
60.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$680,000
Days on Market
59
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.8
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.8%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
20.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.3%
Building Permits (2024)
3,131
Single-Family Permits
2,120

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
8.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
57.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
47.7
Good
Good Air Days
59%
637 of 1,087 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
75
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
48
2022
46
2023
49
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,263M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Pine Canyon Master-Planned Development
Undisclosed
$500M Planned
Gateway Center
Lockheed Martin
$350M Under Construction
Flexential Data Center
Flexential
$192M Under Construction
Canyon Peak Power (Natural Gas Peaking Plant)
CORE Electric Cooperative
$156M Under Construction
Zebulon Regional Sports Complex
KT Development
$65M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +3.0% 57 percentile
Population Growth +2.4% 92 percentile
Income Growth +9.1% 65 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 82 percentile
Home Price Change -2.9% 10 percentile
Rent Growth -0.7% 7 percentile
Price/Rent 25x 1 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Douglas County, CO a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Douglas County scores just 4/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #944 of 996 counties. Job growth at +3.2% and median household income of $139,010 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Douglas County affordable?

Douglas County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $635,100 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.22 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,953/month on average.

Is Douglas County growing or shrinking?

Douglas County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +2.4% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.2% clip. Home values shifted -2.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Douglas County?

In significant numbers — 5.18% of Douglas County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Weld County, CO 5 Broomfield County, CO 3 Denver County, CO 6 El Paso County, CO 6 Jefferson County, CO 6 Adams County, CO 2 Loudoun County, VA 4 Forsyth County, GA 4