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Mesa County, CO

RANK #325 / 1001 NAT  ·  #2 / 15 CO  ·  POP 158,601

1YR FORECAST: +0.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +31%

Our model projects above-average housing market growth for Mesa County at +0.8% over the next year.

[01] Why Mesa County?

Mesa County, Colorado, is known for its distinctive natural landscape, particularly the Grand Mesa, the world's largest flat-top mountain, and the dramatic red rock canyons of the Colorado National Monument. Located in western Colorado, Grand Junction serves as the county seat and the largest city between Denver and Salt Lake City. The area offers a mild, four-season climate with over 300 days of sunshine, allowing for year-round outdoor recreation like hiking, mountain biking, fishing, and skiing. Commutes are generally short, with an average of 18.9 minutes in Grand Junction.

Life in Mesa County offers a blend of community focus and outdoor access. Many residents are drawn to the area for its quality of life and opportunities for outdoor activities. The economy is diversifying, with growth in sectors such as healthcare and medical services, manufacturing and technology, aerospace and aviation, transportation and logistics, and outdoor recreation. Mesa County Valley School District 51 serves the area with above-average public schools.

MARKET PROFILE

Educated Suburban Growth

Mesa County is one of 110 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +2.5% matches the profile's typical +2.4%.

See all 110 Educated Suburban Growth counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
15.1x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+2.5%

Above national median

Climate & Terrain
2.3

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 15.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Mesa County Valley School District 51 Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Intermountain Health St. Mary's Regional Hospital Healthcare
  3. 3
    Community Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Mesa County Government
  5. 5
    Colorado Mesa University Education
  6. 6
    City of Grand Junction Government
  7. 7
    VA Western Colorado Health Care System Government
  8. 8
    Family Health West Healthcare
    500+
  9. 9
    West Star Aviation Manufacturing
  10. 10
    HILLTOP Healthcare
    250+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Mesa County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
158,601
+0.82% YoY
Median Household Income
$73,658
Median Home Value
$378,600
+2.45% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,182
Average Annual Pay
$59,501
+3.8% YoY
Employment
66,879
0.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1946
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.97%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
32.3%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$427,500
Days on Market
29
Active market
Months of Supply
2.9
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.4%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
17.5%
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.1%
Building Permits (2025)
810
Single-Family Permits
693

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
5.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
20.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
115.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
45.3
Good
Good Air Days
71%
775 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
3
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
44
2023
46
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$205M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Grand Valley Solar Generation and BESS
None
$100M Planned
Nannie Blain Solar Park
SolarGen of Colorado
$55M Planned
Orchard Avenue Safety & Connectivity Project (Phase One)
Mesa County (CDOT Grant)
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 59 percentile
Income Growth +3.0% 58 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.7% 81 percentile
Home Price Change +2.5% 61 percentile
Rent Growth +5.1% 78 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 26 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Mesa County, CO a good place to move to?

With a Boom Town Index score of 67/100, Mesa County sits in the upper half of all 1001 ranked counties. and median household income stands at $73,658 — indicators that suggest solid fundamentals even if it's not among the fastest-growing counties in CO.

Is Mesa County affordable?

Mesa County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $378,600 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,182/month on average.

Is Mesa County growing or shrinking?

Mesa County's population is growing — up +0.8% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of 0.0%). Home values shifted +2.5% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Mesa County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.97% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Mesa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Garfield County, CO 52 Eagle County, CO 89 Pueblo County, CO 25 La Plata County, CO 12 Weld County, CO 8 El Paso County, CO 6 Monroe County, MI 67 Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK 67