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Jefferson County, CO

Northeast Jefferson

RANK #933 / 996 NAT  ·  #11 / 15 CO  ·  POP 580,519

1YR FORECAST: -2.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +9%

#45 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Jefferson County's housing market at -2.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Jefferson County?

Golden, the county seat of Jefferson County, holds a notable place in Colorado's history, having served as the territorial capital twice. Located along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, adjacent to Denver, the county offers a blend of urban, suburban, and mountain communities. Commuting to Denver is feasible via major highways, and public transit options like RTD are available. The community's feel varies from the historic charm of Golden to the more suburban environments of Lakewood and Arvada. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with over 58,000 acres of open space, 27 parks, and more than 275 miles of trails for hiking, biking, and climbing. The county also includes parts of Pike National Forest and Golden Gate Canyon State Park.

Life in Jefferson County appeals to families and individuals seeking access to both city amenities and natural landscapes. The Jeffco Public Schools district is the second-largest in Colorado, serving a wide geographic area from urban to mountain communities. The economy is diverse, with major employers like Coors Brewing Company in Golden. Recent economic developments include investments in quantum technology and renewable energy, with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) contributing significantly to the county's economy. There is also ongoing commercial and residential development, including new aircraft maintenance facilities and planned retail spaces.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
8.7x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+1.3%

Well below national median

Home Prices
-2.6%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
5.6

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
25x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 8.7x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Jefferson County R-1 School District Education
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Lockheed Martin Space Systems Technology
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Federal Center (Lakewood) Government
  4. 4
    National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Energy
    2,500+
  5. 5
    Ball Corporation Manufacturing
  6. 6
    St. Anthony Hospital & Medical Campus (Centura Health) Healthcare
  7. 7
    Terumo BCT Manufacturing
    1,000+
  8. 8
    Molson Coors Beverage Co. Manufacturing
  9. 9
    City of Lakewood Government
    500+
  10. 10
    FirstBank Finance

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Jefferson County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
580,519
+0.07% YoY
Median Household Income
$103,167
Median Home Value
$556,800
-2.57% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,696
Average Annual Pay
$78,598
+3.2% YoY
Employment
248,082
+0.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1853
Near national average
Migration Inflow
5.58%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
49.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$625,000
Days on Market
47
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
2.6
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.9%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
25.7%
Listings w/ Price Drops
32.3%
Building Permits (2024)
1,172
Single-Family Permits
932

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.5
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
93.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
47.7
Good
Good Air Days
60%
662 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
104
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
47
2022
47
2023
49
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$614M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
New Residential Developments (Combined)
Various Homebuilders (e.g., Tri Pointe Homes, Brookfield Residential, Taylor Morrison, Cardel Homes)
$500M Under Construction
Plains End Natural Gas Power Plant
Plains End Operating Services LLC
$114M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.3% 22 percentile
Population Growth +0.1% 33 percentile
Income Growth +9.8% 78 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 62 percentile
Home Price Change -2.6% 11 percentile
Rent Growth -1.1% 5 percentile
Price/Rent 25x 2 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Jefferson County, CO a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Jefferson County scores just 6/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #933 of 996 counties. Job growth at +0.3% and median household income of $103,167 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Jefferson County affordable?

Jefferson County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $556,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,696/month on average.

Is Jefferson County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Jefferson County are both close to flat — population +0.1% YoY and jobs +0.3%. Home values shifted -2.6% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Jefferson County?

In significant numbers — 5.58% of Jefferson County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Denver County, CO 6 El Paso County, CO 6 Weld County, CO 5 Boulder County, CO 8 Douglas County, CO 4 Broomfield County, CO 3 Sarasota County, FL 6 Cobb County, GA 7