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Durham County, NC

RANK #959 / 1001 NAT  ·  #50 / 51 NC  ·  POP 332,353

1YR FORECAST: -1.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +13%

#46 Most Undervalued
Our model projects Durham County's housing market at -1.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Durham County?

Durham County, North Carolina, is often recognized first for Duke University, a prominent institution that significantly shapes the area's intellectual and cultural landscape. Located in the Piedmont region of central North Carolina, Durham County is part of the larger Research Triangle area, which includes Raleigh and Chapel Hill. Commuting within the county and to nearby cities is facilitated by various options, including bus services, carpooling, vanpooling, and microtransit programs. The community offers access to green spaces like Eno River State Park and Sarah P. Duke Gardens, providing opportunities for outdoor recreation.

Life in Durham County blends urban amenities with natural beauty, attracting a diverse population including families, professionals, and retirees. The economy, historically rooted in tobacco, has transitioned to a focus on medicine, research, and high technology. Major investments are evident across various sectors, including commercial and residential developments, data centers, and infrastructure improvements. The presence of institutions like Duke University and North Carolina Central University contributes to a skilled workforce and a dynamic economic environment.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Durham County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -2.8% YoY, population +0.9%, wages +5.3%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.3x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
-2.8%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
-0.3

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.3x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Duke University & Health System Healthcare
    25,000+
  2. 2
    IBM Technology
    10,000+
  3. 3
    Durham Public Schools Education
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Durham VA Health Care System Government
  5. 5
    Fidelity Investments Finance
  6. 6
    Wolfspeed (formerly Cree) Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina Finance
  8. 8
    City of Durham Government
  9. 9
    RTI International Other
  10. 10
    IQVIA Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Durham County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
332,353
+0.89% YoY
Median Household Income
$82,316
Median Home Value
$389,400
-2.76% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,508
Average Annual Pay
$103,841
+5.3% YoY
Employment
233,723
-1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2114
Near national average
Migration Inflow
4.62%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
55.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$428,000
Days on Market
31
Active market
Months of Supply
2.7
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.6%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
19.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
33.5%
Building Permits (2025)
4,772
Single-Family Permits
2,790

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
11.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
79.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
50.3
Moderate
Good Air Days
49%
533 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
7
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
52
2022
47
2023
52
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$7,150M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Greater Triangle Commuter Rail Line
GoTriangle
$3,000M Proposed
Biogen Manufacturing Expansion
Biogen
$2,000M Planned
Hub RTP Development (Phase I)
Research Triangle Foundation
$1,000M Under Construction
CyrusOne DUR1 Data Center Expansion
CyrusOne
$750M Operating
Merck Treyburn Facility Expansion
Merck
$200M Under Construction
2024 Connect Durham Bond Projects (Streets & Parks)
City of Durham
$200M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.9% 62 percentile
Income Growth +3.5% 70 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.6% 14 percentile
Home Price Change -2.8% 8 percentile
Rent Growth +0.6% 15 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 20 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Durham County, NC a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Durham County scores just 3/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #959 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -1.3% and median household income of $82,316 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Durham County affordable?

Durham County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $389,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.21 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,508/month on average.

Is Durham County growing or shrinking?

Durham County is attracting residents (population +0.9% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -1.3%. Housing values changed -2.8% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to Durham County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.62% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Durham County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Chatham County, NC 4 Buncombe County, NC 2 Wake County, NC 5 Orange County, NC 8 Moore County, NC 8 Mecklenburg County, NC 8 Comal County, TX 3 Boulder County, CO 2