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Napa County, CA

RANK #889 / 1001 NAT  ·  #26 / 43 CA  ·  POP 134,869

1YR FORECAST: -0.7%

5YR OUTLOOK: +19%

#16 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Napa County's housing market at -0.7% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Napa County?

Napa County, California, is defined by its Mediterranean climate, which contributes to its renowned wine industry and picturesque landscape of rolling vineyards and oak-studded mountains. The city of Napa, the county seat, sits about an hour northeast of San Francisco. Commuting within the county is primarily by car, though Vine Transit offers bus services connecting towns like Napa, Yountville, and St. Helena, with connections to regional transit. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with opportunities for hiking and biking on trails in parks such as Bothe-Napa Valley State Park and Alston Park, kayaking on the Napa River, and water sports on Lake Berryessa. The county also boasts unique biodiversity, including redwood stands and diverse plant and animal species.

Life in Napa County offers a blend of refined living and a strong sense of community, often centered around the agricultural and hospitality sectors. The economy is heavily influenced by its wine and grape industry, which accounts for a substantial portion of local employment and wages. While the region has seen job growth, particularly in leisure services and manufacturing, there's an increasing focus on diversifying the economy, with healthcare emerging as a growing sector. Public schools in the county are highly rated, with districts like Napa Valley Unified School District serving many communities.

MARKET PROFILE

Western Premium Correction

Napa County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -3.2% runs below the profile's typical -0.8%.

See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
20.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-3.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
7.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
26x

Speculative pricing

Housing looks overvalued at 20.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Napa State Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Napa Valley Unified School District Education
  3. 3
    Queen of the Valley Medical Center Healthcare
  4. 4
    County of Napa Government
  5. 5
    Veterans Home of California - Yountville Government
  6. 6
    Trinchero Family Estates Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Napa Valley College Education
    500+
  8. 8
    Owens Corning Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Meadowood Hospitality
  10. 10
    Ghilotti Construction Co Inc. Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Napa County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
134,869
-0.88% YoY
Median Household Income
$111,471
Median Home Value
$869,500
-3.19% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,237
Average Annual Pay
$73,118
+3.2% YoY
Employment
79,166
-1.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1282
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.76%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
39.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$895,000
Days on Market
47
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
5.3
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
14.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
21.5%
Building Permits (2025)
364
Single-Family Permits
258

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
6.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
61.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$543M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Calistoga Resiliency Center
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and Energy Vault Holdings
$293M Operating
Napa Renewable Natural Gas Project
City of Napa
$50M Planned
American Canyon Solar Project
Renewable Properties / MCE Clean Energy
$50M Completed
916 Trancas Street Mixed-Use Development
Mark Shakeri
$50M Proposed
Napa Data Center (Healthcare Provider)
Confidential Large Healthcare Provider
$50M Under Construction
Napa County ADU Accelerator System
Napa County
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.9% 2 percentile
Income Growth +2.3% 38 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 33 percentile
Home Price Change -3.2% 5 percentile
Rent Growth +0.1% 11 percentile
Price/Rent 26x 3 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Napa County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Napa County scores just 10/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #889 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -1.4% and median household income of $111,471 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Napa County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Napa County. The median home is valued at $869,500 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.13, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,237/month.

Is Napa County growing or shrinking?

Both population (-0.9% YoY) and employment (-1.4%) are contracting in Napa County, though housing tells its own story with values moving -3.2% over the past 12 months. This is a county where the trend lines are pointing in the wrong direction.

Are people moving to Napa County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.76% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Napa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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