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Napa County, CA

RANK #979 / 996 NAT  ·  #43 / 43 CA  ·  POP 137,384

1YR FORECAST: -2.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +3%

#16 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Napa County's housing market at -2.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Napa County?

Napa County, California, is defined by its Mediterranean climate, which contributes to its renowned wine industry and picturesque landscape of rolling vineyards and oak-studded mountains. The city of Napa, the county seat, sits about an hour northeast of San Francisco. Commuting within the county is primarily by car, though Vine Transit offers bus services connecting towns like Napa, Yountville, and St. Helena, with connections to regional transit. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with opportunities for hiking and biking on trails in parks such as Bothe-Napa Valley State Park and Alston Park, kayaking on the Napa River, and water sports on Lake Berryessa. The county also boasts unique biodiversity, including redwood stands and diverse plant and animal species.

Life in Napa County offers a blend of refined living and a strong sense of community, often centered around the agricultural and hospitality sectors. The economy is heavily influenced by its wine and grape industry, which accounts for a substantial portion of local employment and wages. While the region has seen job growth, particularly in leisure services and manufacturing, there's an increasing focus on diversifying the economy, with healthcare emerging as a growing sector. Public schools in the county are highly rated, with districts like Napa Valley Unified School District serving many communities.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.7x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+0.8%

Well below national median

Home Prices
-3.7%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
7.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
24x

Prices detached from rents

Housing looks overvalued at 9.7x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Napa State Hospital Healthcare
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Napa Valley Unified School District Education
  3. 3
    Queen of the Valley Medical Center Healthcare
  4. 4
    County of Napa Government
  5. 5
    Veterans Home of California - Yountville Government
  6. 6
    Trinchero Family Estates Manufacturing
  7. 7
    Napa Valley College Education
    500+
  8. 8
    Owens Corning Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Meadowood Hospitality
  10. 10
    Ghilotti Construction Co Inc. Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Napa County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
137,384
-1.02% YoY
Median Household Income
$105,809
Median Home Value
$794,500
-3.73% 12mo
Median Rent
$2,037
Average Annual Pay
$70,866
+2.2% YoY
Employment
80,265
+0.8% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1332
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.9%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
37.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$830,000
Days on Market
112
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.0
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.3%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
16.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
16.7%
Building Permits (2024)
439
Single-Family Permits
250

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
6.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
61.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$543M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Calistoga Resiliency Center
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and Energy Vault Holdings
$293M Operating
Napa Renewable Natural Gas Project
City of Napa
$50M Planned
American Canyon Solar Project
Renewable Properties / MCE Clean Energy
$50M Completed
916 Trancas Street Mixed-Use Development
Mark Shakeri
$50M Proposed
Napa Data Center (Healthcare Provider)
Confidential Large Healthcare Provider
$50M Under Construction
Napa County ADU Accelerator System
Napa County
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +0.8% 15 percentile
Population Growth -1.0% 3 percentile
Income Growth +8.5% 51 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.0% 59 percentile
Home Price Change -3.7% 6 percentile
Rent Growth -2.0% 2 percentile
Price/Rent 24x 2 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Napa County, CA a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Napa County scores just 1/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #979 of 996 counties. Job growth at +0.8% and median household income of $105,809 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Napa County affordable?

Affordability is a real challenge in Napa County. The median home is valued at $794,500 — with an income-to-home-value ratio of just 0.13, that's significantly harder to afford than in most U.S. counties. Median rent runs $2,037/month.

Is Napa County growing or shrinking?

Napa County is losing population (-1.0% YoY) while the job market is essentially flat (+0.8% employment change). Home values are -3.7% over the past 12 months. A slow-bleed pattern — not a collapse, but residents are leaving faster than employers are hiring.

Are people moving to Napa County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.9% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Napa County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Humboldt County, CA 1 Santa Barbara County, CA 1 Ventura County, CA 2 San Mateo County, CA 2 Santa Clara County, CA 3 Lake County, CA 3 Coweta County, GA 1 Chittenden County, VT 1