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Merced County, CA

RANK #563 / 996 NAT  ·  #9 / 43 CA  ·  POP 282,290

1YR FORECAST: -0.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +22%

#43 Highest GDP Growth
Merced County's housing market is projected to grow -0.0% over the next year, below the national average.

[01] Why Merced County?

Merced County, located in California's San Joaquin Valley, is often called the "Gateway to Yosemite" due to its proximity to the national park, roughly two hours away. The county seat, the city of Merced, is about 56 miles from Fresno. The community offers access to outdoor recreation at places like Lake Yosemite for fishing and boating, and the Merced River Recreation Management Area, known for whitewater boating, camping, and hiking. The county also features several state recreation areas, including McConnell State Recreation Area, which provides opportunities for fishing and swimming along the Merced River.

Life in Merced County is shaped by its agricultural roots and a growing educational presence, notably the University of California, Merced, which opened in 2005. The county's economy is largely driven by agriculture, food processing, and related industries. Public sector employment, healthcare, and transportation also contribute significantly to the job market. Commute options include local bus services and vanpooling programs that connect communities within the county and to neighboring areas. The county's 20 school districts serve over 58,000 students.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.4x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+7.9%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-1.9%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.5

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 9.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Foster Poultry Farms Manufacturing
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Merced County Government Government
    1,000+
  3. 3
    University of California-Merced Education
  4. 4
    Mercy Medical Center Merced Healthcare
  5. 5
    Hilmar Cheese Manufacturing
  6. 6
    Dole Packaged Foods Manufacturing
    500+
  7. 7
    Merced College Education
  8. 8
    AT&T Mobility Other
  9. 9
    Liberty Packing Company Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Ingomar Packing Company Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Merced County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
282,290
+1.12% YoY
Median Household Income
$64,772
Median Home Value
$342,300
-1.9% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,200
Average Annual Pay
$54,952
+3.5% YoY
Employment
84,952
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1892
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.83%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
14.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$401,734
Days on Market
45
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.1
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.6%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
27.4%
Listings w/ Price Drops
29.9%
Building Permits (2024)
520
Single-Family Permits
517

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
11.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
70.2
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
53.7
Moderate
Good Air Days
43%
466 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
61
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
54
2022
56
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$798M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Wright Solar Park
Undisclosed
$200M Completed
Zeta Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project
Longroad Energy
$150M Planned
Spikes Peak Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project
Undisclosed
$150M Proposed
Gonzaga Ridge Wind Farm (Repowering & Battery Storage)
Scout Clean Energy
$148M Under Construction
Campus Parkway Project (Segments II & III)
Merced County
$100M Completed
Devonwood Affordable Housing Project
The Richman Group / Huff Construction
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +7.9% 96 percentile
Population Growth +1.1% 75 percentile
Income Growth +10.0% 80 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.9% 65 percentile
Home Price Change -1.9% 15 percentile
Rent Growth +1.3% 25 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 33 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Merced County, CA a good place to move to?

Merced County scores 43/100 on the Boom Town Index, landing in the middle of the pack among 996 U.S. counties (#563). Median household income is $64,772 and job growth is running at +1.3%. The data points to a county with mixed signals — some positive indicators alongside areas that lag faster-growing peers.

Is Merced County affordable?

Merced County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $342,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.19 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,200/month on average.

Is Merced County growing or shrinking?

Merced County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.1% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.3% clip. Home values shifted -1.9% in the past year.

Are people moving to Merced County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.83% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Merced County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

San Benito County, CA 40 Kern County, CA 49 Fresno County, CA 49 Madera County, CA 51 Yuba County, CA 35 Butte County, CA 33 Lubbock County, TX 43 Bibb County, GA 43