RANK #683 / 1001 NAT · #12 / 43 CA · POP 290,201
1YR FORECAST: -0.8%
5YR OUTLOOK: +26%
Merced County, located in California's San Joaquin Valley, is often called the "Gateway to Yosemite" due to its proximity to the national park, roughly two hours away. The county seat, the city of Merced, is about 56 miles from Fresno. The community offers access to outdoor recreation at places like Lake Yosemite for fishing and boating, and the Merced River Recreation Management Area, known for whitewater boating, camping, and hiking. The county also features several state recreation areas, including McConnell State Recreation Area, which provides opportunities for fishing and swimming along the Merced River.
Life in Merced County is shaped by its agricultural roots and a growing educational presence, notably the University of California, Merced, which opened in 2005. The county's economy is largely driven by agriculture, food processing, and related industries. Public sector employment, healthcare, and transportation also contribute significantly to the job market. Commute options include local bus services and vanpooling programs that connect communities within the county and to neighboring areas. The county's 20 school districts serve over 58,000 students.
Merced County is one of 78 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -1.6% runs below the profile's typical -0.8%.
See all 78 Western Premium Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Above national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 23.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Wright Solar Park
Undisclosed
|
$200M | Completed |
|
Zeta Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project
Longroad Energy
|
$150M | Planned |
|
Spikes Peak Solar and Battery Energy Storage Project
Undisclosed
|
$150M | Proposed |
|
Gonzaga Ridge Wind Farm (Repowering & Battery Storage)
Scout Clean Energy
|
$148M | Under Construction |
|
Campus Parkway Project (Segments II & III)
Merced County
|
$100M | Completed |
|
Devonwood Affordable Housing Project
The Richman Group / Huff Construction
|
$50M | Under Construction |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
At 31/100, Merced County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $65,510 combined with job growth of +0.8% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.
Merced County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $391,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.17 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,343/month on average.
Merced County's population is growing — up +1.6% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.8%). Home values shifted -1.6% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.
There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.44% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Merced County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.