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Sumter County, FL

Wildwood

RANK #840 / 996 NAT  ·  #28 / 41 FL  ·  POP 131,832

1YR FORECAST: -3.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +14%

#22 Fastest Growing
Our model projects Sumter County's housing market at -3.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Sumter County?

Sumter County, Florida, is often recognized for The Villages, a large, master-planned retirement community that spans parts of the county and is known for its extensive amenities and active lifestyle. Located in central Florida, approximately 45 miles northwest of Orlando and 20 miles south of Ocala, the county offers a blend of rural charm and developed communities. Commutes to larger cities are manageable, with easy access to I-75 and Florida's Turnpike. The community feel varies, from the bustling town squares of The Villages to the quieter, more traditional towns like Bushnell, the county seat. The area boasts natural beauty, with opportunities for hiking, kayaking, fishing, and birdwatching in places like Lake Panasoffkee and various wildlife management areas.

Life in Sumter County caters to a diverse population, including a significant number of retirees drawn to The Villages, which offers numerous recreational activities and social clubs. Families also reside in towns like Bushnell and Lake Panasoffkee, which have public schools rated above average. The economy is expanding beyond its agricultural roots, with growth in sectors such as healthcare and manufacturing. Major investments are flowing into energy-related industries, contributing to job creation and economic diversification. The county's central location and transportation network also make it a distribution hub within Florida.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.4x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+7.3%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-1.2%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
2.8

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 7.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    CFHA – The Villages Regional Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  2. 2
    Publix Retail
    500+
  3. 3
    T&D Concrete & Distribution Other
  4. 4
    Winn-Dixie Retail
  5. 5
    The Villages® community Other
    250+
  6. 6
    Walmart Stores Retail
  7. 7
    Sumter Electric Cooperative Energy
  8. 8
    Time Definite Services Logistics
  9. 9
    Metal Industries Manufacturing
    100+
  10. 10
    Outokumpu Manufacturing
    94

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Sumter County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
131,832
+3.53% YoY
Median Household Income
$70,105
Median Home Value
$324,400
-1.19% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,185
Average Annual Pay
$57,856
+3.8% YoY
Employment
40,436
+3.0% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2161
Near national average
Migration Inflow
3.97%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
33.7%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$350,000
Days on Market
53
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
4.9
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.5%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
9.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
40.1%
Building Permits (2024)
3,961
Single-Family Permits
3,537

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
14.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
144.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$325M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Sumter Solar Project
Recurrent Energy
$150M Permitting/Planned
Half Moon Renewable Energy Center
Duke Energy Florida
$75M Under Construction
Road Construction CR-525E & Buena Vista Blvd Ext S of SR 44
Sumter County
$50M Under Construction
New Residential Communities (e.g., Sumter Villas, Twisted Oaks)
Various (e.g., Century Complete, Pulte Homes)
$50M Under Construction

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +7.3% 95 percentile
Population Growth +3.5% 98 percentile
Income Growth +10.7% 88 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.5% 22 percentile
Home Price Change -1.2% 20 percentile
Rent Growth -2.1% 2 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 27 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Sumter County, FL a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Sumter County scores just 15/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #840 of 996 counties. Job growth at +3.0% and median household income of $70,105 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Sumter County affordable?

Sumter County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $324,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.22 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,185/month on average.

Is Sumter County growing or shrinking?

Sumter County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +3.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +3.0% clip. Home values shifted -1.2% in the past year.

Are people moving to Sumter County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.97% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Sumter County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Collier County, FL 16 Clay County, FL 14 Citrus County, FL 18 Monroe County, FL 18 Marion County, FL 18 Duval County, FL 19 Platte County, MO 15 Albemarle County, VA 16