Phoenix
RANK #914 / 1001 NAT · #11 / 11 AZ · POP 4,559,748
1YR FORECAST: -2.6%
5YR OUTLOOK: +18%
Encompassing Phoenix, the state capital, Maricopa County, Arizona, is one of the most populous counties in the United States. It is located in the south-central part of Arizona and is known for its warm, dry climate with abundant sunshine. The county offers extensive outdoor recreation, including a vast regional park system with over 120,000 acres of Sonoran Desert open space. Residents and visitors can enjoy hundreds of miles of trails for hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding, as well as opportunities for camping, boating, and fishing at locations like Lake Pleasant Regional Park. Commute options within the county include regional bus, light rail, and streetcar services provided by Valley Metro, which also offers carpool and vanpool matching services.
Life in Maricopa County is characterized by a diverse population, with many families and young professionals residing there. The county is home to 58 school districts, serving a significant portion of Arizona's students, and public schools generally perform above average. Economically, Maricopa County has seen consistent job growth, outpacing the state's average. Major investment is occurring in sectors such as industrial and logistics, with new developments in commercial and residential areas. The county also maintains a strong agricultural presence, ranking highly in the U.S. for sales of various crops and dairy products.
Maricopa County is one of 76 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of -1.7% runs above the profile's typical -3.7%.
See all 76 Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Prices detached from rents
Housing looks overvalued at 11.8x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Tract Buckeye Data Center Campus (formerly Project Range)
Tract
|
$20,000M | Planned |
|
W Holdings Energy Generation and Technology Campus (Data Center, BESS, Natural Gas Plant)
W Holdings
|
$10,000M | Approved |
|
Google Mesa Data Center Campus (Project Redhawk)
Google
|
$1,000M | Under Construction |
|
Harquahala Flats Energy Storage
NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
|
$615M | Planned |
|
Strata Clean Energy Battery Storage Projects (Justice BESS & White Tank BESS)
Strata Clean Energy
|
$250M | Under Construction |
|
Amazon Fulfillment and Distribution Centers (Multiple Projects)
Amazon
|
$100M | Operating |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Maricopa County scores just 8/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #914 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.3% and median household income of $89,300 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Maricopa County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $452,800 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.20 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,708/month on average.
Maricopa County's population is growing — up +1.5% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.3%). Home values shifted -1.7% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.
Not particularly — 0.75% of Maricopa County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.