21 / 100

Maricopa County, AZ

Phoenix

RANK #781 / 996 NAT  ·  #9 / 11 AZ  ·  POP 4,430,871

1YR FORECAST: -1.8%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

Our model projects Maricopa County's housing market at -1.8% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Maricopa County?

Encompassing Phoenix, the state capital, Maricopa County, Arizona, is one of the most populous counties in the United States. It is located in the south-central part of Arizona and is known for its warm, dry climate with abundant sunshine. The county offers extensive outdoor recreation, including a vast regional park system with over 120,000 acres of Sonoran Desert open space. Residents and visitors can enjoy hundreds of miles of trails for hiking, mountain biking, and horseback riding, as well as opportunities for camping, boating, and fishing at locations like Lake Pleasant Regional Park. Commute options within the county include regional bus, light rail, and streetcar services provided by Valley Metro, which also offers carpool and vanpool matching services.

Life in Maricopa County is characterized by a diverse population, with many families and young professionals residing there. The county is home to 58 school districts, serving a significant portion of Arizona's students, and public schools generally perform above average. Economically, Maricopa County has seen consistent job growth, outpacing the state's average. Major investment is occurring in sectors such as industrial and logistics, with new developments in commercial and residential areas. The county also maintains a strong agricultural presence, ranking highly in the U.S. for sales of various crops and dairy products.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.0x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+4.6%

Well above national median

Home Prices
-2.3%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.9

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.0x relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Banner Health Healthcare
    25,000+
  2. 2
    State of Arizona Government
  3. 3
    Walmart, Inc. Retail
  4. 4
    Arizona State University (ASU) Education
    10,000+
  5. 5
    Intel Corporation Technology
  6. 6
    Wells Fargo Finance
  7. 7
    American Express Finance
    5,000+
  8. 8
    Honeywell Aerospace Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Dignity Health Healthcare
  10. 10
    Maricopa County Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Maricopa County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
4,430,871
+1.46% YoY
Median Household Income
$80,675
Median Home Value
$371,400
-2.3% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,437
Average Annual Pay
$73,840
+5.0% YoY
Employment
2,280,645
+2.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2172
Near national average
Migration Inflow
0.78%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
35.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$486,795
Days on Market
66
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
12.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
30.8%
Building Permits (2024)
36,380
Single-Family Permits
21,667

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
15.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
92.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

F
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
89.7
Moderate
Good Air Days
7%
80 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
389
Includes 79 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
122
2022
75
2023
72
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$31,965M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Tract Buckeye Data Center Campus (formerly Project Range)
Tract
$20,000M Planned
W Holdings Energy Generation and Technology Campus (Data Center, BESS, Natural Gas Plant)
W Holdings
$10,000M Approved
Google Mesa Data Center Campus (Project Redhawk)
Google
$1,000M Under Construction
Harquahala Flats Energy Storage
NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
$615M Planned
Strata Clean Energy Battery Storage Projects (Justice BESS & White Tank BESS)
Strata Clean Energy
$250M Under Construction
Amazon Fulfillment and Distribution Centers (Multiple Projects)
Amazon
$100M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +4.6% 81 percentile
Population Growth +1.5% 82 percentile
Income Growth +10.6% 87 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 44 percentile
Home Price Change -2.3% 13 percentile
Rent Growth -0.9% 6 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 15 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Maricopa County, AZ a good place to move to?

At 21/100, Maricopa County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $80,675 combined with job growth of +2.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Maricopa County affordable?

Maricopa County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $371,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.22 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,437/month on average.

Is Maricopa County growing or shrinking?

Maricopa County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.5% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +2.1% clip. Home values shifted -2.3% in the past year.

Are many people relocating to Maricopa County?

Not particularly — 0.78% of Maricopa County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Pinal County, AZ 20 Pima County, AZ 18 Coconino County, AZ 30 Cochise County, AZ 37 Navajo County, AZ 39 Yavapai County, AZ 42 Riverside County, CA 26