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Cochise County, AZ

RANK #869 / 1001 NAT  ·  #9 / 11 AZ  ·  POP 125,566

1YR FORECAST: -1.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +21%

#21 Best Climate & Terrain
Our model projects Cochise County's housing market at -1.0% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Cochise County?

Cochise County, in Arizona's southeastern corner, is often first recognized for its historic towns like Tombstone, famous for its Old West legacy, or Bisbee, an old mining town now known for its arts community. Located about an hour southeast of Tucson, the county offers a different pace of life with a commute time averaging around 20 minutes. The area is characterized by "sky island" mountain ranges rising from the desert, providing a cooler climate than other parts of Arizona. This diverse landscape supports extensive outdoor recreation, including hiking and rock climbing in areas like Cochise Stronghold and the Chiricahua Mountains, and world-class birdwatching, particularly in places like Ramsey Canyon Preserve and the San Pedro River National Conservation Area.

Life in Cochise County is often described as peaceful and quiet, appealing to families, retirees, and those seeking a less crowded environment. The economy is diverse, with Fort Huachuca serving as a major employer. Agriculture, particularly in the Sulphur Springs Valley and Willcox, also plays a role, with the county being a significant wine-producing region. Douglas, on the U.S.-Mexico border, has developed a manufacturing base. Recent economic developments include investments in energy sectors, contributing to the county's evolving economic landscape. The county also offers various public and private K-12 school districts and higher education options through Cochise College and a University of Arizona campus in Sierra Vista.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Cochise County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +0.6% YoY, population +0.1%, wages +2.1%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
13.0x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+0.6%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
7.1

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Below national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 13.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Fort Huachuca Military
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Cochise County Government
    500+
  3. 3
    Sierra Vista Unified School District Education
  4. 4
    Walmart Retail
  5. 5
    Canyon Vista Medical Center Healthcare
  6. 6
    Arizona Department of Corrections Government
  7. 7
    Cochise College Education
  8. 8
    Chiricahua Community Health Centers Healthcare
  9. 9
    Douglas Unified School District Education
    250+
  10. 10
    Copper Queen Community Hospital Healthcare

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Cochise County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
125,566
+0.09% YoY
Median Household Income
$59,742
Median Home Value
$218,300
+0.6% 12mo
Median Rent
$995
Average Annual Pay
$61,147
+2.1% YoY
Employment
34,471
-1.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2737
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.24%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$284,500
Days on Market
66
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.8
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.5%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
10.6%
Listings w/ Price Drops
23.4%
Building Permits (2025)
463
Single-Family Permits
433

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
3.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.5
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
99.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
44.3
Good
Good Air Days
75%
822 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
6
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
45
2022
44
2023
44
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,373M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Desert Vine Wind Project
Repsol Renewables North America
$380M Proposed
Apache Solar II Project and Roadrunner Project (Solar & Battery Storage)
Arizona Electric Power Cooperative (AEPCO) / Clēnera LLC
$294M Planned
BrightNight Three Sisters Solar and Battery Storage Project
BrightNight
$259M Proposed
Winchester Solar and Battery Storage Facility
Torch Clean Energy / Tucson Electric Power (TEP)
$160M Planned
Babacomari Solar Project
Cleanview (developer not specified, TEP offtake)
$160M Planned
Herbie Solar & Storage Project
Korsail Energy
$120M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.1% 26 percentile
Income Growth +1.3% 19 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 26 percentile
Home Price Change +0.6% 34 percentile
Rent Growth +2.8% 48 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 58 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Cochise County, AZ a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Cochise County scores just 12/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #869 of 1001 counties. Job growth at -1.4% and median household income of $59,742 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Cochise County affordable?

Housing in Cochise County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $218,300 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.27, with rents averaging $995/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Cochise County growing or shrinking?

Cochise County's job market is contracting (-1.4% YoY) while population is roughly stable (+0.1% change). Home values are +0.6% over the past 12 months. Hiring headwinds without an offsetting exodus — residents are staying, but local employers are shedding payroll.

Are people moving to Cochise County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.24% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Cochise County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

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