RANK #887 / 1001 NAT · #10 / 11 AZ · POP 144,508
1YR FORECAST: -1.6%
5YR OUTLOOK: +20%
Encompassing nearly 18,661 square miles, Coconino County is the second-largest county by area in the contiguous United States, larger than nine individual U.S. states. It is home to a diverse landscape, from the deep canyons of the Grand Canyon National Park to the thick forests of the Coconino National Forest and the peaks of the San Francisco Mountains, including Humphreys Peak, Arizona's highest point. Flagstaff, the county seat, is approximately 145 miles north of Phoenix. The county offers extensive outdoor recreation, including multi-use trails, fishing, wildlife viewing, and winter sports. Public transportation options like Mountain Line provide bus and vanpool services, particularly for commutes into Flagstaff. Coconino County's economy is influenced by its natural resources, with tourism, logging, and ranching historically playing significant roles. Major employers include Northern Arizona University and Flagstaff Medical Center. The healthcare and biomedical manufacturing sector is expanding, with companies like W.L. Gore & Associates contributing to job growth. The county also sees investment in renewable energy, with solar and wind power projects developing due to abundant natural resources. Educational services, healthcare, and accommodation and food services are among the most common employment sectors.
Coconino County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -0.5% YoY, population -0.1%, wages +4.5%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.
See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Above national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 17.1x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Huntley Page Data Center
Huntley LLC
|
$1,000M | Planned |
|
CO Bar Solar Plant
Salt River Project (SRP) and Clenera
|
$1,000M | Under Construction |
|
Red Antelope Solar & Energy Storage Farm
Undisclosed
|
$400M | Planned |
|
Forged Ethic Wind Energy Project
RWE
|
$323M | Under Development |
|
Chevelon Butte Wind Farm (Phases 1 & 2)
AES Corporation
|
$267M | Operating |
|
Babbitt Ranch Energy Center (Wind & Solar with Battery Storage)
SRP and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
|
$161M | Completed |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
The data is not encouraging — Coconino County scores just 11/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #887 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +0.6% and median household income of $72,966 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.
Coconino County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $448,000 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.16 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,473/month on average.
Population and employment in Coconino County are both close to flat — population -0.1% YoY and jobs +0.6%. Home values shifted -0.5% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.
In significant numbers — 7.04% of Coconino County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.