30 / 100

Coconino County, AZ

Flagstaff

RANK #689 / 996 NAT  ·  #8 / 11 AZ  ·  POP 144,705

1YR FORECAST: -0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +19%

Our model projects Coconino County's housing market at -0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Coconino County?

Encompassing nearly 18,661 square miles, Coconino County is the second-largest county by area in the contiguous United States, larger than nine individual U.S. states. It is home to a diverse landscape, from the deep canyons of the Grand Canyon National Park to the thick forests of the Coconino National Forest and the peaks of the San Francisco Mountains, including Humphreys Peak, Arizona's highest point. Flagstaff, the county seat, is approximately 145 miles north of Phoenix. The county offers extensive outdoor recreation, including multi-use trails, fishing, wildlife viewing, and winter sports. Public transportation options like Mountain Line provide bus and vanpool services, particularly for commutes into Flagstaff. Coconino County's economy is influenced by its natural resources, with tourism, logging, and ranching historically playing significant roles. Major employers include Northern Arizona University and Flagstaff Medical Center. The healthcare and biomedical manufacturing sector is expanding, with companies like W.L. Gore & Associates contributing to job growth. The county also sees investment in renewable energy, with solar and wind power projects developing due to abundant natural resources. Educational services, healthcare, and accommodation and food services are among the most common employment sectors.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.6x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+4.3%

Well above national median

Home Prices
+0.4%

Well below national median

Climate & Terrain
4.9

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
14x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.6x relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Northern Arizona University (NAU) Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Flagstaff Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  3. 3
    W.L. Gore & Associates Manufacturing
  4. 4
    Flagstaff Unified School District Education
  5. 5
    Coconino County Government
  6. 6
    City of Flagstaff Government
    500+
  7. 7
    Walmart Retail
  8. 8
    Nestle Purina PetCare Manufacturing
    100+
  9. 9
    The Guidance Center Healthcare
  10. 10
    US Forest Service Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Coconino County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
144,705
-0.16% YoY
Median Household Income
$67,266
Median Home Value
$379,400
+0.36% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,353
Average Annual Pay
$54,494
+4.6% YoY
Employment
65,975
+3.4% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.1773
Less affordable than average
Migration Inflow
6.68%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
39.6%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$610,000
Days on Market
99
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.2
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.4%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
7.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
14.9%
Building Permits (2024)
703
Single-Family Permits
331

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
6.7
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
17.7
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
123.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Near national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B-
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
45.3
Good
Good Air Days
72%
787 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
5
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
44
2023
46
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$3,151M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Huntley Page Data Center
Huntley LLC
$1,000M Planned
CO Bar Solar Plant
Salt River Project (SRP) and Clenera
$1,000M Under Construction
Red Antelope Solar & Energy Storage Farm
Undisclosed
$400M Planned
Forged Ethic Wind Energy Project
RWE
$323M Under Development
Chevelon Butte Wind Farm (Phases 1 & 2)
AES Corporation
$267M Operating
Babbitt Ranch Energy Center (Wind & Solar with Battery Storage)
SRP and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC
$161M Completed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +4.3% 76 percentile
Population Growth -0.2% 22 percentile
Income Growth +8.7% 55 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 14 percentile
Home Price Change +0.4% 35 percentile
Rent Growth +2.2% 37 percentile
Price/Rent 14x 44 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Coconino County, AZ a good place to move to?

At 30/100, Coconino County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $67,266 combined with job growth of +3.4% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Coconino County affordable?

Coconino County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $379,400 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.18 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,353/month on average.

Is Coconino County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Coconino County are hiring — job growth of +3.4% — but the population is close to flat (-0.2% YoY). Home values moved +0.4% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Coconino County?

In significant numbers — 6.68% of Coconino County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Cochise County, AZ 37 Navajo County, AZ 39 Maricopa County, AZ 21 Pinal County, AZ 20 Yavapai County, AZ 42 Pima County, AZ 18 El Dorado County, CA 30 Brunswick County, NC 31