RANK #797 / 1001 NAT · #7 / 11 AZ · POP 1,060,490
1YR FORECAST: -1.6%
5YR OUTLOOK: +23%
Saguaro National Park, known for its iconic saguaro cacti, is a prominent feature of Pima County, Arizona. Located in the south-central part of the state, Pima County is home to Tucson, its county seat and Arizona's second-largest city. The region offers a relaxed lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Commuting within the Tucson metropolitan area is facilitated by "The Loop," a 137-mile paved pathway system for non-motorized travel, connecting various parts of the county. The county's natural amenities are a major draw, with diverse ecosystems ranging from desert mountains to riparian areas. Outdoor recreation opportunities include hiking and biking trails in places like Tucson Mountain Park and Tortolita Mountain Park, and birdwatching, with over 400 species found annually.
Pima County attracts a mix of families, young professionals, and retirees. The public school system includes 15 districts, with some, like Catalina Foothills School District, recognized for quality education. The University of Arizona, a research institution, is also located in Tucson. The local economy is diverse, with major sectors including healthcare, social assistance, retail trade, and educational services. There is also a focus on economic development in sectors such as aerospace, manufacturing, and energy. While the area is generally considered safe, residents have expressed concerns about the high cost of living and affordable housing.
Pima County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -2.0% YoY, population +1.0%, wages +3.7%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.
See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →Overvalued relative to economy
Prices declining
Above national median (15x)
Housing looks overvalued at 13.7x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.
Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.
Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).
Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →
Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →
Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →
| PROJECT | AMOUNT | STATUS |
|---|---|---|
|
Project Blue Data Center Campus
Beale Infrastructure (formerly associated with Amazon Web Services)
|
$3,600M | Under Construction |
|
American Battery Factory (ABF) Gigafactory
American Battery Factory (ABF)
|
$1,000M | Under Construction |
|
H Wilson Sundt Generating Station (Natural Gas Plant)
Tucson Electric Power Co.
|
$529M | Operating |
|
Wilmot Energy Center II
NextEra Energy Resources
|
$314M | Under Construction |
|
Roadrunner Reserve Phase 1 Battery Storage
Tucson Electric Power Co.
|
$200M | Planned |
|
Serrano Solar and Battery Storage
Longroad Energy
|
$170M | Planned |
Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.
Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.
At 20/100, Pima County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $70,315 combined with job growth of +0.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.
Pima County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $319,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.22 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,212/month on average.
Pima County's population is growing — up +1.0% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.1%). Home values shifted -2.0% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.
Not particularly — 1.96% of Pima County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.