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Pima County, AZ

RANK #797 / 1001 NAT  ·  #7 / 11 AZ  ·  POP 1,060,490

1YR FORECAST: -1.6%

5YR OUTLOOK: +23%

Our model projects Pima County's housing market at -1.6% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Pima County?

Saguaro National Park, known for its iconic saguaro cacti, is a prominent feature of Pima County, Arizona. Located in the south-central part of the state, Pima County is home to Tucson, its county seat and Arizona's second-largest city. The region offers a relaxed lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Commuting within the Tucson metropolitan area is facilitated by "The Loop," a 137-mile paved pathway system for non-motorized travel, connecting various parts of the county. The county's natural amenities are a major draw, with diverse ecosystems ranging from desert mountains to riparian areas. Outdoor recreation opportunities include hiking and biking trails in places like Tucson Mountain Park and Tortolita Mountain Park, and birdwatching, with over 400 species found annually.

Pima County attracts a mix of families, young professionals, and retirees. The public school system includes 15 districts, with some, like Catalina Foothills School District, recognized for quality education. The University of Arizona, a research institution, is also located in Tucson. The local economy is diverse, with major sectors including healthcare, social assistance, retail trade, and educational services. There is also a focus on economic development in sectors such as aerospace, manufacturing, and energy. While the area is generally considered safe, residents have expressed concerns about the high cost of living and affordable housing.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Pima County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices -2.0% YoY, population +1.0%, wages +3.7%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
13.7x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
-2.0%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.0

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
18x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 13.7x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Raytheon Missiles & Defense Manufacturing
    10,000+
  2. 2
    University of Arizona Education
  3. 3
    Davis-Monthan Air Force Base Military
    5,000+
  4. 4
    Tucson Unified School District Education
  5. 5
    Carondelet Health Network Healthcare
    2,500+
  6. 6
    Amazon Logistics
    1,000+
  7. 7
    Caterpillar Inc. Manufacturing
    500+
  8. 8
    Banner - University Medical Center Tucson Healthcare
  9. 9
    Pima County Government
  10. 10
    Tucson Electric Power (TEP) Energy

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Pima County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,060,490
+1.0% YoY
Median Household Income
$70,315
Median Home Value
$319,700
-2.01% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,212
Average Annual Pay
$64,215
+3.7% YoY
Employment
386,542
+0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2199
Near national average
Migration Inflow
1.96%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
36.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$369,920
Days on Market
70
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.7
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.3%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
14.9%
Listings w/ Price Drops
28.9%
Building Permits (2025)
4,658
Single-Family Permits
3,592

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
110.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
54.3
Moderate
Good Air Days
33%
363 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
34
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
56
2022
53
2023
54
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$5,813M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Project Blue Data Center Campus
Beale Infrastructure (formerly associated with Amazon Web Services)
$3,600M Under Construction
American Battery Factory (ABF) Gigafactory
American Battery Factory (ABF)
$1,000M Under Construction
H Wilson Sundt Generating Station (Natural Gas Plant)
Tucson Electric Power Co.
$529M Operating
Wilmot Energy Center II
NextEra Energy Resources
$314M Under Construction
Roadrunner Reserve Phase 1 Battery Storage
Tucson Electric Power Co.
$200M Planned
Serrano Solar and Battery Storage
Longroad Energy
$170M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.0% 67 percentile
Income Growth +3.5% 69 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 31 percentile
Home Price Change -2.0% 12 percentile
Rent Growth +0.8% 18 percentile
Price/Rent 18x 24 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Pima County, AZ a good place to move to?

At 20/100, Pima County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $70,315 combined with job growth of +0.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Pima County affordable?

Pima County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $319,700 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.22 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,212/month on average.

Is Pima County growing or shrinking?

Pima County's population is growing — up +1.0% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of +0.1%). Home values shifted -2.0% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are many people relocating to Pima County?

Not particularly — 1.96% of Pima County's population moved in from another state, which is below the national average. Most residents are long-term locals rather than recent transplants.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Gila County, AZ 14 Cochise County, AZ 12 Coconino County, AZ 11 Navajo County, AZ 31 Maricopa County, AZ 8 Yavapai County, AZ 40 Middlesex County, NJ 21 Suffolk County, MA 19