18 / 100

Pima County, AZ

Tucson

RANK #808 / 996 NAT  ·  #11 / 11 AZ  ·  POP 1,042,393

1YR FORECAST: -0.5%

5YR OUTLOOK: +16%

Our model projects Pima County's housing market at -0.5% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Pima County?

Saguaro National Park, known for its iconic saguaro cacti, is a prominent feature of Pima County, Arizona. Located in the south-central part of the state, Pima County is home to Tucson, its county seat and Arizona's second-largest city. The region offers a relaxed lifestyle with a strong sense of community. Commuting within the Tucson metropolitan area is facilitated by "The Loop," a 137-mile paved pathway system for non-motorized travel, connecting various parts of the county. The county's natural amenities are a major draw, with diverse ecosystems ranging from desert mountains to riparian areas. Outdoor recreation opportunities include hiking and biking trails in places like Tucson Mountain Park and Tortolita Mountain Park, and birdwatching, with over 400 species found annually.

Pima County attracts a mix of families, young professionals, and retirees. The public school system includes 15 districts, with some, like Catalina Foothills School District, recognized for quality education. The University of Arizona, a research institution, is also located in Tucson. The local economy is diverse, with major sectors including healthcare, social assistance, retail trade, and educational services. There is also a focus on economic development in sectors such as aerospace, manufacturing, and energy. While the area is generally considered safe, residents have expressed concerns about the high cost of living and affordable housing.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
5.1x

Above national median (4.7x)

GDP Growth
+2.3%

Below national median

Home Prices
-2.4%

Prices declining

Climate & Terrain
4.0

Favorable climate & terrain

Price/Rent
15x

Above national median (13x)

Housing is fairly valued at 5.1x relative to local economic output. Climate and geography support a structural premium. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Raytheon Missiles & Defense Manufacturing
    10,000+
  2. 2
    University of Arizona Education
  3. 3
    Davis-Monthan Air Force Base Military
    5,000+
  4. 4
    Tucson Unified School District Education
  5. 5
    Carondelet Health Network Healthcare
    2,500+
  6. 6
    Amazon Logistics
    1,000+
  7. 7
    Caterpillar Inc. Manufacturing
    500+
  8. 8
    Banner - University Medical Center Tucson Healthcare
  9. 9
    Pima County Government
  10. 10
    Tucson Electric Power (TEP) Energy

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Pima County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
1,042,393
+0.71% YoY
Median Household Income
$64,323
Median Home Value
$258,300
-2.35% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,071
Average Annual Pay
$61,936
+4.1% YoY
Employment
386,312
-0.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.249
Near national average
Migration Inflow
2.08%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
35.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$365,000
Days on Market
90
Slower market
Months of Supply
4.6
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.0%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
13.8%
Listings w/ Price Drops
27.0%
Building Permits (2024)
5,250
Single-Family Permits
4,150

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

C
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
7.4
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
19.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
110.3
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

C+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
54.3
Moderate
Good Air Days
33%
363 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
34
Includes 1 Very Unhealthy
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
56
2022
53
2023
54
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$5,813M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Project Blue Data Center Campus
Beale Infrastructure (formerly associated with Amazon Web Services)
$3,600M Under Construction
American Battery Factory (ABF) Gigafactory
American Battery Factory (ABF)
$1,000M Under Construction
H Wilson Sundt Generating Station (Natural Gas Plant)
Tucson Electric Power Co.
$529M Operating
Wilmot Energy Center II
NextEra Energy Resources
$314M Under Construction
Roadrunner Reserve Phase 1 Battery Storage
Tucson Electric Power Co.
$200M Planned
Serrano Solar and Battery Storage
Longroad Energy
$170M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.3% 43 percentile
Population Growth +0.7% 61 percentile
Income Growth +8.6% 53 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 30 percentile
Home Price Change -2.4% 13 percentile
Rent Growth +0.3% 13 percentile
Price/Rent 15x 36 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Pima County, AZ a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Pima County scores just 18/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #808 of 996 counties. Job growth at -0.1% and median household income of $64,323 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Pima County affordable?

Pima County leans toward the expensive side. A median home value of $258,300 against an income-to-home-value ratio of 0.25 means housing eats a bigger share of local earnings than the national norm. Renters face $1,071/month on average.

Is Pima County growing or shrinking?

Pima County's population is growing — up +0.7% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.1%). Home values shifted -2.4% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Pima County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.08% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Pima County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Pinal County, AZ 20 Maricopa County, AZ 21 Coconino County, AZ 30 Cochise County, AZ 37 Navajo County, AZ 39 Yavapai County, AZ 42 New Castle County, DE 18 Duval County, FL 19