MARKET PROFILE

Persistent Housing Weakness

Counties with chronic housing underperformance the model also expects to underperform forward.

COUNTIES 11
MEAN BTI 55/100
Persistent Housing Weakness

[01] What This Profile Means

A tight cluster of counties united by chronic housing weakness — five-year price CAGRs near zero or negative, peak-to-current drawdowns exceeding 10%, and pandemic-era surges that fell well below the national average. Members include New York's Manhattan and Bronx alongside Louisiana parishes (Jefferson, Tangipahoa, Lafourche, St. Tammany) and a handful of New Mexico and South Carolina counties. The common thread is housing prices that failed to grow even during the 2020-2022 surge that lifted most of the country — and the BoomTown forecasting model agrees the underperformance is likely to continue rather than mean-revert.

DATA SIGNATURE

5yr CAGR negative or near zero, peak-to-current drawdown below -10%, pandemic surge below 25%, BoomTown Score within 30 points of the profile mean (~55).

[02] Typical Profile

Average values across the 11 counties in this profile.

1YR HOME PRICE
-1.1%
3YR CAGR
-2.2%
PANDEMIC SURGE
+15%
DRAWDOWN FROM PEAK
-15.2%
POP GROWTH
-0.27%
EDUCATION (BA+)
24%

[03] Largest Counties in This Profile

  1. 1 New York County, NY
    POP 1,645,867 BTI 52
  2. 2 Bronx County, NY
    POP 1,443,229 BTI 49
  3. 3 Jefferson Parish, LA
    POP 436,171 BTI 43
  4. 4 Tangipahoa Parish, LA
    POP 133,953 BTI 62
  5. 5 Lafourche Parish, LA
    POP 97,220 BTI 21

[04] All 11 Counties in This Profile

Sorted by BoomTown Index score. Click any county for its full profile.

Laurens County, SC 89
Cherokee County, SC 85
Eddy County, NM 84
St. Charles Parish, LA 64
Tangipahoa Parish, LA 50
St. Landry Parish, LA 46
New York County, NY 45
Bronx County, NY 44
Jefferson Parish, LA 36
Lea County, NM 30
Lafourche Parish, LA 24

[05] Other Market Profiles

Idiosyncratic Markets
414 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 51
Heartland Steady Growth
145 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 83
Educated Suburban Growth
110 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 44
Western Premium Correction
78 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 25
Sun Belt Post-Surge Correction
76 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 14
Affordable Slow Markets
75 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 68
Sun Belt Exurban Boom
43 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 24
Secondary Market Surge
35 COUNTIES · MEAN BTI 56

Market profiles describe each county's housing-market character, derived empirically from 24 housing, labor, and demographic features across 987 U.S. counties using hierarchical clustering. Counties whose BoomTown Score diverges sharply from a profile's typical range are moved to Idiosyncratic Markets and get a custom narrative instead. Read the methodology →