Colorado's Front Range Has a Problem
Five Colorado counties appear in the top 50 — more than any other state — and four of them form a continuous belt along the Front Range from Fort Collins south to Pueblo. Jefferson County, the western Denver suburbs (Lakewood, Arvada, Wheat Ridge), has seen a 94% increase in homicide rate since 2015, starting from a baseline of just 1.8 per 100,000. El Paso County, Colorado Springs, is up 80%. Arapahoe County (eastern Denver suburbs) is up 54%. These are places that were genuinely safe a decade ago. Something systemic changed in Colorado, and it shows up in the data across all of its major metro counties simultaneously.
Fast-Growing Cities Are Struggling to Keep Up
Travis County (Austin) is up 54% since 2015. Collin County, the Dallas suburb that has been one of the fastest-growing counties in America, is up 44%. Henry County in metro Atlanta is up 92%. Snohomish County in greater Seattle is up 40%. The pattern in this cluster is rapid population growth outpacing the public infrastructure — courts, police, social services — needed to maintain the safety levels that attracted people in the first place. If you're evaluating a fast-growing county, the homicide trend is worth checking alongside the population growth rate.
A Few Surprises Worth Noting
Honolulu County appears at #24, up 59% since a 2015 baseline of 1.7 per 100,000 — it's still a B+ county, but the trajectory is notable for a place most people consider peaceful. Ramsey County (St. Paul) is up 73%, outpacing its twin city Hennepin County (Minneapolis) which doesn't make the list. Lexington, Kentucky (Fayette County) is up 96% from a B- baseline, reaching a D grade — the largest percentage increase of any mid-sized city that started from a genuinely moderate safety level.