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Lucas County, OH

Toledo

RANK #103 / 996 NAT  ·  #11 / 49 OH  ·  POP 430,014

1YR FORECAST: +3.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +36%

#50 Most Undervalued
Our model projects Lucas County's housing market to grow +3.3% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Lucas County?

Lucas County, Ohio, distinguishes itself with the Maumee River, a significant waterway that flows into Lake Erie and is renowned for its annual walleye run, attracting anglers from across the country. Located in northwest Ohio, bordering Michigan, the county seat of Toledo is approximately an hour's drive from Detroit. The community offers a blend of urban and suburban living, with towns like Maumee and Sylvania providing distinct atmospheres. The Metroparks of the Toledo area, including the expansive Oak Openings Preserve, offer over 12,000 acres of natural land and 120 miles of trails for hiking, biking, and other outdoor pursuits.

Life in Lucas County offers a range of experiences, from the cultural attractions of Toledo, including the Toledo Museum of Art, to the quieter, family-friendly suburbs with above-average public schools. Commute times average around 20.5 minutes, with many residents driving alone to work, though public transit options are available through TARTA. The economy, historically rooted in manufacturing, healthcare, and education, is undergoing diversification. Recent economic development efforts focus on attracting new businesses and investment, particularly in sectors like logistics and technology, with initiatives to streamline development and permitting processes.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
2.4x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+1.8%

Below national median

Home Prices
+5.0%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
-0.9

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
11x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks undervalued at 2.4x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    ProMedica Health Systems Healthcare
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Mercy Health Healthcare
    5,000+
  3. 3
    Whirlpool Corporation Manufacturing
  4. 4
    Stellantis (FCA US LLC) Manufacturing
  5. 5
    University of Toledo Education
  6. 6
    Toledo Public Schools Education
  7. 7
    Owens Corning Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Dana Incorporated Manufacturing
  9. 9
    The Andersons, Inc. Agriculture
  10. 10
    Libbey Inc. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Lucas County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
430,014
-0.28% YoY
Median Household Income
$57,265
Median Home Value
$144,200
+5.04% 12mo
Median Rent
$879
Average Annual Pay
$62,231
+3.7% YoY
Employment
194,869
-0.7% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3971
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.02%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$170,000
Days on Market
51
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.2
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.2%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
30.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
16.5%
Building Permits (2024)
413
Single-Family Permits
287

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

D
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
11.6
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
18.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
120.8
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well above national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
45.0
Good
Good Air Days
62%
678 of 1,091 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
25
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
46
2022
44
2023
45
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$2,750M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Proposed Oregon Data Center
Capacity LLC
$1,000M Planned
Oregon Energy Center
Clean Energy Future-Oregon LLC (now CPV Oregon Holdings, LLC)
$950M Under Construction
Oregon Clean Energy Center
Ares Management, L.P. and I Squared Capital
$800M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +1.8% 30 percentile
Population Growth -0.3% 16 percentile
Income Growth +7.7% 30 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 38 percentile
Home Price Change +5.0% 90 percentile
Rent Growth +4.0% 67 percentile
Price/Rent 11x 82 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Lucas County, OH a good place to move to?

Lucas County ranks #103 out of 996 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 90/100. The composite score reflects long-term strength — housing, income, and migration patterns — but near-term hiring is soft (employment is down 0.7% year-over-year). Median household income here is $57,265.

Is Lucas County affordable?

By national standards, Lucas County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $144,200, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.40 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $879/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Lucas County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Lucas County are both close to flat — population -0.3% YoY and jobs -0.7%. Home values shifted +5.0% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Lucas County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.02% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Lucas County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

How is the housing market in Lucas County?

Home values climbed +5.0% year-over-year, which is a solid pace of appreciation. The median home in Lucas County is now valued at $144,200. That kind of growth typically reflects sustained demand rather than speculative frenzy.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Ashland County, OH 92 Wayne County, OH 88 Sandusky County, OH 94 Huron County, OH 86 Knox County, OH 86 Richland County, OH 95 Genesee County, MI 89 Sedgwick County, KS 88