New York City housing market tightens as state population shifts
What's driving growth
New York City's economy is projected to outpace national GDP and employment growth in 2025 and 2026. The financial sector, particularly the Securities Industry, has demonstrated strong performance, contributing to employment and compensation growth. Investment in innovation industries such as life sciences, green economy, tech, and AI is also a focus for job creation in New York City.
Housing market right now
New York City's median asking home price increased by 2.3% year-over-year in May 2025, reaching $1.1 million. Queens saw a significant 10.6% year-over-year increase in its median asking price to $695,000. Rents in New York City are expected to continue rising in 2026 due to a shortage of available apartments.
Migration patterns
New York State continues to experience a net outflow of residents, ranking 47th in U-Haul's 2025 Growth Index. Many residents are moving to states like Florida and Texas, seeking greater affordability. Nationally, Census data from April 2020 through July 2025 shows New York with a 5.5% decrease in domestic net migration as a share of its state population.
Headwinds
Job growth in New York City has slowed in 2025, with gains concentrated in lower-wage sectors like education and health. New York City's economy is expected to face continued slow growth or a contraction in 2026. Federal policy changes, including tariffs and trade agreements, have introduced uncertainty and disrupted supply chains for key sectors.
Key facts
- New York's minimum wage will increase to $17 per hour in New York City, Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties, and $16 per hour in the rest of the state, effective January 1, 2026.
- The exempt salary threshold for administrative and executive employees in New York City, Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties will increase to $66,300 per year, effective January 1, 2026.
- New York State will invest over $600 million in more than 180 paving projects across the state during the 2026 construction season.
- New York City's Ten-Year Capital Strategy (FY26-2035) outlines an allocation of $173.4 billion for infrastructure improvements, including housing, roadways, and transportation systems.
- New York State enacted legislation in December 2025 prohibiting employers from requiring "employment promissory notes" that obligate repayment of training costs if an employee leaves before a set period.