90 / 100

Jefferson County, NY

RANK #102 / 1001 NAT  ·  #7 / 45 NY  ·  POP 115,040

1YR FORECAST: +3.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +36%

#42 Best for Families #48 Best for Investment
Our model projects Jefferson County's housing market to grow +3.1% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Jefferson County?

Jefferson County, New York, is defined by its position at the convergence of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River, offering access to the Thousand Islands region. Watertown, the county seat, sits 72 miles north of Syracuse. The area is known for its natural scenery, with fifteen state parks, numerous state forests, and wildlife management areas providing opportunities for outdoor recreation like boating, hiking, snowmobiling, and cross-country skiing. Commuting within the county is common, with a large majority of residents working locally. The community offers a blend of small towns and natural landscapes.

Life in Jefferson County is shaped by its affordability and access to natural resources. Many families and young professionals reside here, with public schools generally performing above average. The economy is significantly influenced by Fort Drum, a major Army installation that employs over 36,900 soldiers, family members, and civilians. Agriculture, particularly dairy farming, also plays a substantial role, with recent investments highlighting its expanding economic impact. Additionally, the county is seeing growth in sectors like food processing and advanced manufacturing, with efforts to expand workforce training at institutions like Jefferson Community College.

MARKET PROFILE

Affordable Slow Markets

Jefferson County is one of 75 U.S. counties in this market profile — stronger than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +3.4% runs above the profile's typical +0.8%.

See all 75 Affordable Slow Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
9.3x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+3.4%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
-1.3

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
11x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks overvalued at 9.3x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Fort Drum Military
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Samaritan Medical Center Healthcare
    2,500+
  3. 3
    New York Air Brake Manufacturing
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Jefferson County Government Government
    500+
  5. 5
    School Districts (Jefferson County) Education
  6. 6
    Johnson Newspaper Corp. Other
    100+
  7. 7
    The Stebbins Eng. & Mfg. Co. Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Jain Irrigation, Inc. Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Stature Electric Inc. Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Cornell Cooperative Extension Association of Jefferson Co. Agriculture
    50

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Jefferson County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
115,040
-0.94% YoY
Median Household Income
$66,301
Median Home Value
$188,200
+3.4% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,213
Average Annual Pay
$57,628
+3.8% YoY
Employment
40,557
+0.6% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3523
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.31%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
26.5%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$247,097
Days on Market
69
Slower market
Months of Supply
6.5
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.9%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
28.2%
Listings w/ Price Drops
21.1%
Building Permits (2025)
288
Single-Family Permits
226

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
6.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
65.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
32.3
Good
Good Air Days
96%
1,028 of 1,073 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
32
2022
32
2023
33
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$719M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Hounsfield Wind Farm (Galloo Island)
Upstate NY Power Corporation
$280M Proposed
Tracy Solar Project
EDF Renewables North America
$119M Planned
Riverside Solar Project
AES Corporation
$100M Planned
Deer River Wind Farm
Atlantic Wind LLC (Avangrid Renewables)
$100M Proposed
Worth Wind Energy Project
WEB Renewable Energy USA LLC (WEB USA)
$70M Proposed
Jefferson County Public Transportation System
Jefferson County Board of Legislators
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth -0.9% 1 percentile
Income Growth +2.0% 32 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.2% 31 percentile
Home Price Change +3.4% 71 percentile
Rent Growth +5.7% 83 percentile
Price/Rent 11x 94 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Jefferson County, NY a good place to move to?

Jefferson County ranks #102 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 90/100, putting it in the top tier nationally. Job growth of +0.6% and a median household income of $66,301 point to a county with active economic momentum.

Is Jefferson County affordable?

By national standards, Jefferson County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $188,200, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.35 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $1,213/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Jefferson County growing or shrinking?

Jefferson County is losing population (-0.9% YoY) while the job market is essentially flat (+0.6% employment change). Home values are +3.4% over the past 12 months. A slow-bleed pattern — not a collapse, but residents are leaving faster than employers are hiring.

Are people moving to Jefferson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.31% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Jefferson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Broome County, NY 90 Oneida County, NY 90 Sullivan County, NY 89 Madison County, NY 92 Cattaraugus County, NY 92 Bronx County, NY 92 Wayne County, OH 90 Wayne County, NC 90