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Jefferson County, NY

Le Ray

RANK #177 / 996 NAT  ·  #7 / 45 NY  ·  POP 117,445

1YR FORECAST: +2.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +32%

Our model projects Jefferson County's housing market to grow +2.3% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Jefferson County?

Jefferson County, New York, is defined by its position at the convergence of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River, offering access to the Thousand Islands region. Watertown, the county seat, sits 72 miles north of Syracuse. The area is known for its natural scenery, with fifteen state parks, numerous state forests, and wildlife management areas providing opportunities for outdoor recreation like boating, hiking, snowmobiling, and cross-country skiing. Commuting within the county is common, with a large majority of residents working locally. The community offers a blend of small towns and natural landscapes.

Life in Jefferson County is shaped by its affordability and access to natural resources. Many families and young professionals reside here, with public schools generally performing above average. The economy is significantly influenced by Fort Drum, a major Army installation that employs over 36,900 soldiers, family members, and civilians. Agriculture, particularly dairy farming, also plays a substantial role, with recent investments highlighting its expanding economic impact. Additionally, the county is seeing growth in sectors like food processing and advanced manufacturing, with efforts to expand workforce training at institutions like Jefferson Community College.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
3.1x

Undervalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+0.4%

Well below national median

Home Prices
+0.9%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-1.3

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
11x

Strong rental yield

Housing looks undervalued at 3.1x — home prices are low relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Fort Drum Military
    10,000+
  2. 2
    Samaritan Medical Center Healthcare
    2,500+
  3. 3
    New York Air Brake Manufacturing
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Jefferson County Government Government
    500+
  5. 5
    School Districts (Jefferson County) Education
  6. 6
    Johnson Newspaper Corp. Other
    100+
  7. 7
    The Stebbins Eng. & Mfg. Co. Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Jain Irrigation, Inc. Manufacturing
  9. 9
    Stature Electric Inc. Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Cornell Cooperative Extension Association of Jefferson Co. Agriculture
    50

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Jefferson County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
117,445
-0.16% YoY
Median Household Income
$62,782
Median Home Value
$169,600
+0.89% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,143
Average Annual Pay
$55,545
+1.8% YoY
Employment
40,308
+1.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.3702
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.83%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
25.2%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$211,500
Days on Market
116
Slower market
Months of Supply
5.1
Buyer's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.2%
Negotiation room for buyers
Sold Above List
32.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
11.5%
Building Permits (2024)
191
Single-Family Permits
191

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.9
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
6.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
65.6
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
32.3
Good
Good Air Days
96%
1,028 of 1,073 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
1
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
32
2022
32
2023
33
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$719M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Hounsfield Wind Farm (Galloo Island)
Upstate NY Power Corporation
$280M Proposed
Tracy Solar Project
EDF Renewables North America
$119M Planned
Riverside Solar Project
AES Corporation
$100M Planned
Deer River Wind Farm
Atlantic Wind LLC (Avangrid Renewables)
$100M Proposed
Worth Wind Energy Project
WEB Renewable Energy USA LLC (WEB USA)
$70M Proposed
Jefferson County Public Transportation System
Jefferson County Board of Legislators
$50M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +0.4% 10 percentile
Population Growth -0.2% 22 percentile
Income Growth +7.7% 31 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.7% 16 percentile
Home Price Change +0.9% 43 percentile
Rent Growth +6.1% 87 percentile
Price/Rent 11x 80 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Jefferson County, NY a good place to move to?

Jefferson County ranks #177 out of 996 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 82/100, putting it in the top tier nationally. Job growth of +1.2% and a median household income of $62,782 point to a county with active economic momentum.

Is Jefferson County affordable?

By national standards, Jefferson County is quite affordable. Homes here have a median value of $169,600, and the income-to-home-value ratio of 0.37 is well above the U.S. average — especially with median rent at just $1,143/month. Residents can generally buy a home without being cost-burdened.

Is Jefferson County growing or shrinking?

Employers in Jefferson County are hiring — job growth of +1.2% — but the population is close to flat (-0.2% YoY). Home values moved +0.9% over the past year. Labor demand is outpacing local population growth, which tends to tighten wages and housing.

Are people moving to Jefferson County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.83% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Jefferson County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Chautauqua County, NY 83 Cayuga County, NY 81 Madison County, NY 80 St. Lawrence County, NY 80 Rensselaer County, NY 79 Oneida County, NY 86 Potter County, TX 82 LaPorte County, IN 82