18 counties · Boom Town Index

Minnesota

Avg BTI Score
60 / 100
Population
4.3M
+0.8% avg growth
National Rank
#18 of 51

State Overview

Minnesota's economy in 2025-2026 presents a mixed picture, with some areas of growth tempered by broader concerns about long-term competitiveness. The state's budget outlook has improved, with a projected general fund surplus of $3.7 billion for fiscal year 2026-2027, an increase of $1.3 billion from previous estimates. This is attributed to a higher revenue forecast, particularly from volatile sources like capital gains, interest income, and corporate profits. However, state officials caution that spending growth is projected to outpace revenue growth through 2029, potentially eroding this surplus.

The housing market in the Twin Cities metro area is experiencing slight price increases and more homes entering the market, though closed sales have seen a slight dip. Statewide, the median home price rose 2.9 percent to $355,000 in 2025, with the Twin Cities seeing a 2.6 percent increase to $390,000, setting new price records. Migration data indicates Minnesota was a top inbound state for U-Haul rentals in 2025, with people moving from states like Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa. However, a Minnesota Chamber of Commerce report suggests the state is losing residents to other states due to factors like taxes, limited housing, and high cost of living.

Median Household Income
$92,595
State median across 18 counties
Median Home Value
$299,800
Income-to-home ratio: 0.3
Building Permits
16,615
Total residential permits
Natural Amenity
3.5 / 10
#48 of 49 · USDA scale

Minnesota Counties

18 counties
Rank County BTI Score Safety Proj. Growth GDP Pop Growth Income Ratio Home Price Climate P/R
01 Otter Tail County 88 B+ +3.5% +2.2% +0.6% +6.9% 5.6x +4.4% -2.4 25x
02 Sherburne County 80 B+ +1.2% +3.2% +1.6% +7.6% 8.1x +2.2% -2.9 16x
03 Blue Earth County 79 B+ +2.1% +5.7% +0.7% +9.1% 3.8x +4.5% -2.5 15x
04 St. Louis County 76 B+ +3.4% -1.5% -0.1% +8.6% 3.6x +7.4% -0.7 9x
05 Crow Wing County 75 B- +1.6% +2.8% +1.0% +8.5% 5.3x +1.8% -2.1 23x
06 Clay County 71 B+ +0.9% +1.0% +0.5% +10.3% 7.1x +3.1% -4.2 16x
07 Chisago County 70 B +1.8% +2.6% +1.1% +7.2% 9.9x +2.0% -2.2 23x
08 Ramsey County 66 C+ +1.4% +3.1% -0.4% +9.2% 3.5x +1.4% -2.1 16x
09 Olmsted County 60 B+ +1.0% +3.4% +0.9% +6.8% 3.6x +3.5% -4.0 15x
10 Hennepin County 59 B- +0.2% +1.6% +0.0% +8.4% 2.9x +1.8% -2.1 18x
11 Stearns County 59 B+ +1.3% +4.8% +0.6% +7.2% 3.9x +3.7% -2.9 16x
12 Wright County 58 A +1.4% +4.3% +1.9% +9.2% 8.1x +1.7% -2.5 16x
13 Anoka County 52 B+ +1.3% +1.5% +0.9% +8.0% 7.0x +2.2% -2.4 15x
14 Dakota County 43 A +0.5% +4.0% +0.8% +8.0% 5.1x +1.3% -3.0 17x
15 Rice County 40 B +1.2% +5.8% +0.5% +9.6% 6.0x +3.2% -2.2 14x
16 Washington County 40 A +0.1% +4.4% +1.4% +8.4% 7.8x +1.6% -0.6 16x
17 Carver County 34 B+ +0.3% +2.8% +1.4% +7.8% 7.2x +0.9% -2.7 17x
18 Scott County 33 A +0.7% +7.1% +1.2% +8.5% 6.8x +1.5% -3.0 18x

Capital Investment in Minnesota

Tracked Projects · Public Records
$22.7B
Total tracked investment
675
Jobs announced
68
Projects across 14 counties

Where the money is going

Data Centers $13.2B 58%
Energy $5.5B 24%
Manufacturing $1.8B 8%
Infrastructure $1.2B 5%
Military/Government $425M 2%
Commercial/Residential $388M 2%

Top counties by investment

  1. 01 Dakota County $7.2B
    5 projects · 400 jobs
  2. 02 St. Louis County $3.3B
    6 projects
  3. 03 Wright County $3.2B
    6 projects
  4. 04 Chisago County $2.0B
    5 projects
  5. 05 Hennepin County $1.4B
    6 projects · 150 jobs
  6. 06 Olmsted County $1.3B
    5 projects

Largest projects in Minnesota

Project County Amount Status
Farmington Technology Park (Hyperscale Data Center Campus)
Tract Development · Data Centers · 300 jobs
 Dakota County $5.0B Proposed
Monticello Tech Campus
Frattalone Companies · Data Centers
 Wright County $2.5B Proposed
Boeing F-47 Expansion
The Boeing Company · Manufacturing
 St. Louis County $1.8B Under Construction
Cielo Chisago Data Center
Cielo Digital Infrastructure · Data Centers
 Chisago County $1.5B Planned
Oppidan MN Technology Park (5 Data Centers)
Oppidan · Data Centers
 Dakota County $1.0B Proposed
Meta Data Center
Meta · Data Centers · 100 jobs
 Dakota County $800M Under Construction
Crane and Sandhill Battery Energy Storage Projects
Crane Energy Storage LLC and Sandhill Energy Storage LLC · Energy
 Olmsted County $800M Proposed
New Clean Energy Infrastructure (supporting Google Data Center)
Google, Minnesota Power · Energy
 St. Louis County $700M Proposed
→ Methodology · How We Tracked $4T Across 858 Counties

Source: public records, corporate announcements, state EDC filings. Tracking projects with $25M+ in announced investment or 500+ jobs. Some figures are estimates where exact totals weren't disclosed.

Minnesota shaded relief terrain map
SRTM 30m shaded relief
State Spotlight · 2026-04-29

Minnesota's economy faces growth challenges despite budget surplus

Economic growth drivers

Minnesota's economic outlook for 2025-2026 has improved, with real GDP growth forecast at 2.2 percent in 2025 and 2.7 percent in 2026. Job growth is occurring in construction, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors across the state.

Housing market right now

The Minneapolis housing market in July 2025 saw a 2.6% increase in median sales price to $395,000, with homes selling for an average of $217 per square foot. New listings increased by 5.8%, while closed sales dropped by 1.7%, indicating more inventory but slightly fewer transactions. Mortgage rates are expected to moderate, averaging around 6% to 6.4% in 2026, which may boost buyer confidence.

Migration patterns

Minnesota was a top inbound state for United Van Lines in 2025, with family, jobs, and retirement cited as primary moving factors. U-Haul data for 2025 shows top origin states for those moving to Minnesota include Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa. Conversely, Minnesota experienced a net loss of nearly 48,000 residents to other states between 2020 and 2024.

Headwinds

The Minnesota Chamber of Commerce's 2026 "Business Benchmarks" report indicates the state is lagging nationally in GDP growth, job growth, labor force growth, and real median household income. Spending growth is projected to outpace revenue growth in Minnesota through 2029, potentially leading to a structural imbalance in the state budget. Manufacturers in the Ninth District reported a third consecutive year of decreased activity in 2025, with tariffs impacting pricing and costs.

Key facts

  • Minnesota's projected general fund balance for fiscal year 2026-2027 is $3.7 billion. (Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2026)
  • The median home price statewide rose 2.9 percent to $355,000 in 2025. (Minnesota Realtors, February 2026)
  • Minnesota's Paid Family and Medical Leave program officially launched on January 1, 2026. (NFIB, December 2025)
  • Over 200 road and bridge projects are planned for Minnesota's 2026 construction season. (MnDOT, March 2026)
  • Minimum wage rates in St. Paul for large businesses increased to $16.37 per hour effective January 1, 2026. (Minnesota Department of Labor, January 2026)
Updated 2026-04-29 · grounded research
17 sources
  1. kare11.com
  2. mprnews.org
  3. noradarealestate.com
  4. mprnews.org
  5. kare11.com
  6. uhaul.com
  7. alphanews.org
  8. shakopee.org
  9. mn.gov
  10. versique.com
  11. homesminn.com
  12. unitedvanlines.com
  13. minneapolisfed.org
  14. nfib.com
  15. fox9.com
  16. dot.state.mn.us
  17. laboremployment-lawblog.com