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Dakota County, MN

RANK #721 / 1001 NAT  ·  #14 / 18 MN  ·  POP 445,771

1YR FORECAST: -0.2%

5YR OUTLOOK: +25%

Our model projects Dakota County's housing market at -0.2% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Dakota County?

Dakota County, Minnesota, stands out for its extensive park system, with Lebanon Hills Regional Park being a major highlight, offering nearly 2,000 acres of trails and lakes for year-round outdoor activities. Located in the southeastern Twin Cities metropolitan area, the county is bordered by the Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers, providing scenic natural landscapes. Commuting to Minneapolis and St. Paul is facilitated by major interstates and transit options, including bus rapid transit lines. The community offers a blend of urban, suburban, and rural environments.

Life in Dakota County is characterized by a high quality of life, with residents consistently rating it favorably. The area attracts families and professionals, many of whom commute to nearby cities. Public schools in Dakota County are highly rated, with several high schools recognized among the best in Minnesota. The local economy is seeing investment in sectors such as data centers and energy, contributing to job opportunities within the county. The county also focuses on providing quality workforce housing and enhancing transportation networks.

MARKET PROFILE

Educated Suburban Growth

Dakota County is one of 110 U.S. counties in this market profile — weaker than typical on the BoomTown Index. Within this cohort, its recent home-price change of +1.6% runs below the profile's typical +2.4%.

See all 110 Educated Suburban Growth counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
12.0x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.6%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-3.0

Harsh climate or flat terrain

Price/Rent
19x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 12.0x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Thomson Reuters (formerly Thomson West) Technology
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Blue Cross Blue Shield of Minnesota Healthcare
    2,500+
  3. 3
    Dakota County Government Government
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Lockheed Martin Technology
  5. 5
    United Parcel Service (UPS) Logistics
  6. 6
    Goodrich Sensor Systems Manufacturing
  7. 7
    CHS Inc. Agriculture
  8. 8
    Fairview Ridges Hospital Healthcare
    500+
  9. 9
    Flint Hills Resources Energy
  10. 10
    Smead Manufacturing Co. Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Dakota County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
445,771
+0.81% YoY
Median Household Income
$106,318
Median Home Value
$381,000
+1.61% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,548
Average Annual Pay
$74,703
+2.6% YoY
Employment
189,051
-0.2% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.279
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.51%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
45.0%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$404,450
Days on Market
22
Active market
Months of Supply
2.0
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.6%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
44.0%
Listings w/ Price Drops
38.3%
Building Permits (2025)
2,330
Single-Family Permits
1,378

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.0
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
6.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
63.9
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
40.7
Good
Good Air Days
66%
722 of 1,095 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
13
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
39
2022
34
2023
49
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$7,250M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Farmington Technology Park (Hyperscale Data Center Campus)
Tract Development
$5,000M Proposed
Oppidan MN Technology Park (5 Data Centers)
Oppidan
$1,000M Proposed
Meta Data Center
Meta
$800M Under Construction
HAMPTON 345 KV Battery Energy Storage System
Undisclosed
$300M Planned
Castle Rock Solar Project
Castle Rock Solar, LLC (Midcontinental Renewables, LLC)
$150M Proposed

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.8% 59 percentile
Income Growth +1.1% 16 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.6% 84 percentile
Home Price Change +1.6% 49 percentile
Rent Growth +2.9% 50 percentile
Price/Rent 19x 20 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Dakota County, MN a good place to move to?

At 27/100, Dakota County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $106,318 combined with job growth of -0.2% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Dakota County affordable?

Housing in Dakota County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $381,000 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,548/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Dakota County growing or shrinking?

Dakota County's population is growing — up +0.8% YoY — while the job market is roughly flat (employment change of -0.2%). Home values shifted +1.6% over the past year. In-migration is outpacing local hiring, which often points to remote workers or retirees driving the headcount.

Are people moving to Dakota County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.51% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Dakota County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Clay County, MN 32 Stearns County, MN 32 Scott County, MN 22 Washington County, MN 22 Hennepin County, MN 34 Olmsted County, MN 18 East Baton Rouge Parish, LA 27 Lake County, FL 27