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Olmsted County, MN

RANK #811 / 1001 NAT  ·  #17 / 18 MN  ·  POP 164,498

1YR FORECAST: +1.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +23%

Our model projects Olmsted County's housing market at +1.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Olmsted County?

Olmsted County, in southeastern Minnesota, is distinctive for being one of only four counties in the state without any natural lakes, though it does feature several reservoirs and rivers like the Zumbro, Whitewater, and Root. The county seat, Rochester, is Minnesota's third-largest city and sits in the Zumbro River valley. Commuting within Rochester is facilitated by public transit, including fixed routes and express services, with plans for Bus Rapid Transit. For those traveling from outside the city, regional commuter bus services connect Rochester to about 40 surrounding communities. The county offers various outdoor recreation opportunities across its parks and trails, including Chester Woods Park and Oxbow Park, which features the Zollman Zoo.

Life in Olmsted County is characterized by a mix of urban and rural settings, with Rochester as a central hub surrounded by farmland and smaller agricultural towns. The public schools in the county are highly rated, with several districts serving the area, including Rochester Public School District. Residents value the natural environment and recreational opportunities. The economy is largely driven by the healthcare sector, with significant employment in health diagnosing and treating practitioners. Recent economic developments include investments in waste diversion and resource recovery, aiming to enhance recycling and support sustainable practices. The county is also working on infrastructure improvements, such as road upgrades.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Olmsted County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +4.1% YoY, population +0.7%, wages +4.8%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
6.2x

Below national median (11.3x)

Home Prices
+4.1%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
-4.0

Harsh climate or flat terrain

Price/Rent
16x

Above national median (15x)

Housing is fairly valued at 6.2x relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Mayo Clinic Healthcare
    50,000+
  2. 2
    Rochester Public Schools Education
    2,500+
  3. 3
    IBM Technology
  4. 4
    Olmsted Medical Center Healthcare
    1,000+
  5. 5
    Olmsted County Government
  6. 6
    City of Rochester Government
  7. 7
    Benchmark Electronics Manufacturing
    500+
  8. 8
    Rochester Community and Technical College (RCTC) Education
    250+
  9. 9
    Federal Medical Center Government
  10. 10
    McNeilus Truck & Manufacturing Manufacturing

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Olmsted County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
164,498
+0.66% YoY
Median Household Income
$95,406
Median Home Value
$331,700
+4.08% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,370
Average Annual Pay
$83,419
+4.8% YoY
Employment
105,215
+1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2876
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
3.18%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
49.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$365,000
Days on Market
17
Very hot — homes selling fast
Months of Supply
1.9
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.1%
Homes selling above asking
Sold Above List
35.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
40.7%
Building Permits (2025)
542
Single-Family Permits
326

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
2.2
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
6.9
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
68.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
43.0
Good
Good Air Days
69%
744 of 1,085 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
18
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
39
2022
41
2023
49
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$1,340M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Crane and Sandhill Battery Energy Storage Projects
Crane Energy Storage LLC and Sandhill Energy Storage LLC
$800M Proposed
Snowshoe Energy Storage Project
Snowshoe BESS LLC (Spearmint Energy)
$255M Under Construction
Lemon Hill Solar Project
Lemon Hill Solar, LLC (Ranger Power)
$180M Proposed
CSAH 44 and TH 14 Interchange Project
Olmsted County
$55M Under Construction
Community Solar Portfolio (Multiple Projects)
Various (e.g., Westside Solar, Cenergy Power, People's Energy Cooperative)
$50M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.7% 51 percentile
Income Growth +2.0% 32 percentile
Vacancy Rate 1.3% 28 percentile
Home Price Change +4.1% 78 percentile
Rent Growth +2.1% 36 percentile
Price/Rent 16x 40 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Olmsted County, MN a good place to move to?

The data is not encouraging — Olmsted County scores just 18/100 on the Boom Town Index, ranking #811 of 1001 counties. Job growth at +1.3% and median household income of $95,406 reflect an economy that has been contracting or stagnating relative to the rest of the country.

Is Olmsted County affordable?

Housing in Olmsted County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $331,700 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $1,370/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Olmsted County growing or shrinking?

Olmsted County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +0.7% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.3% clip — and home values reflect that momentum, rising +4.1% over the past 12 months.

Are people moving to Olmsted County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 3.18% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Olmsted County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Scott County, MN 22 Washington County, MN 22 Carver County, MN 12 Dakota County, MN 27 Clay County, MN 32 Stearns County, MN 32 Albemarle County, VA 18 Island County, WA 18