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Carver County, MN

Chaska

RANK #654 / 996 NAT  ·  #17 / 18 MN  ·  POP 107,216

1YR FORECAST: +0.3%

5YR OUTLOOK: +20%

Our model projects Carver County's housing market at +0.3% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Carver County?

Known for its natural scenery and high quality of life, Carver County, Minnesota, is located southwest of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. The county seat, Chaska, is roughly 20 miles from Minneapolis, making it a feasible commute for many residents. The community offers a blend of suburban amenities and rural charm, with rolling farmlands, woodlands, and over 125 lakes. Outdoor recreation is a significant draw, with more than 4,000 acres of parks, including Lake Waconia, the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum, and Carver Park Reserve, providing opportunities for hiking, biking, camping, and water activities.

Carver County consistently ranks as one of Minnesota's healthiest counties, reflecting its quality of life. The area attracts families and professionals, supported by highly rated public schools such as those in the Eastern Carver County Public Schools district. Commute options to Minneapolis are available through express bus services and on-demand rideshare programs. The local economy, historically rooted in agriculture and manufacturing, is experiencing growth in technology infrastructure, with several data centers establishing operations in towns like Chaska. This development contributes to the county's economic landscape, alongside its established industries.

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
7.2x

Overvalued relative to economy

GDP Growth
+2.8%

Above national median

Home Prices
+0.9%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-2.7

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (13x)

Housing looks overvalued at 7.2x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Carver County Schools (District #112 and others) Education
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Entegris Manufacturing
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Carver County Government Government
    500+
  4. 4
    Beckman Coulter, Inc. Manufacturing
  5. 5
    Ridgeview Medical Center Healthcare
  6. 6
    Klein Financial (includes KleinBank) Finance
  7. 7
    The Goodman Group Healthcare
  8. 8
    Lifecore Manufacturing
  9. 9
    My Pillow Manufacturing
  10. 10
    Sea Foam Sales Co. Other

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Carver County U.S. National

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
107,216
+1.44% YoY
Median Household Income
$116,308
Median Home Value
$400,500
+0.86% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,384
Average Annual Pay
$67,445
+0.9% YoY
Employment
40,848
-1.3% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2904
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
5.13%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
49.8%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$501,252
Days on Market
89
Slower market
Months of Supply
3.0
Balanced market
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.2%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
18.1%
Listings w/ Price Drops
28.2%
Building Permits (2024)
744
Single-Family Permits
662

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B+
SAFETY
GRADE
Firearm Fatalities
5.6
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
45.1
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Capital Investment

$650M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
CloudHQ MSP Campus Data Center
CloudHQ
$500M Planned
Northern Lights 2027 Expansion (Natural Gas Pipeline)
Northern Natural Gas
$50M Proposed
Chaska Yards (Community Land Trust Housing)
Carver County Community Development Agency (CDA)
$50M Completed
Carver County Roadway Systems Plan (various projects)
Carver County
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[07] Score Breakdown

GDP Growth +2.8% 51 percentile
Population Growth +1.4% 81 percentile
Income Growth +7.8% 33 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.4% 97 percentile
Home Price Change +0.9% 43 percentile
Rent Growth +3.0% 49 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 21 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 996 counties.

[08] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Carver County, MN a good place to move to?

At 34/100, Carver County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 996 counties we track. Median income of $116,308 combined with job growth of -1.3% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Carver County affordable?

Housing in Carver County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $400,500 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.29, with rents averaging $1,384/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Carver County growing or shrinking?

Carver County is attracting residents (population +1.4% YoY) even as the job market softens with employment at -1.3%. Housing values changed +0.9% over the past 12 months. People may be moving here for affordability or lifestyle reasons rather than job opportunities.

Are people moving to Carver County?

In significant numbers — 5.13% of Carver County's current population relocated from another state, well above the national norm. That level of in-migration usually signals a county where jobs, affordability, or quality of life are pulling people in from elsewhere.

[09] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Scott County, MN 33 Rice County, MN 40 Washington County, MN 40 Dakota County, MN 43 Anoka County, MN 52 Wright County, MN 58 Grant County, WA 34 Campbell County, KY 34