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Scott County, MN

RANK #772 / 1001 NAT  ·  #15 / 18 MN  ·  POP 154,557

1YR FORECAST: +0.1%

5YR OUTLOOK: +24%

Our model projects Scott County's housing market at +0.1% over the next year, underperforming most U.S. counties.

[01] Why Scott County?

Scott County, Minnesota, is characterized by its blend of growing communities and natural landscapes, with the Minnesota River forming its northern and western borders. Shakopee, the county seat, is home to attractions like Valleyfair Amusement Park and Canterbury Park. Located southwest of the Twin Cities metropolitan area, the county offers a suburban and rural feel, with commute times averaging around 24.8 minutes for residents driving alone. The area features an "oak savanna" environment, a mix of grasses and tree clusters, alongside numerous lakes and regional parks such as Cleary Lake and Murphy-Hanrehan, providing extensive outdoor recreation opportunities including hiking, biking, and paddling.

Life in Scott County often appeals to families and young professionals, with highly rated public schools across districts like Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools and Shakopee Public School District. The economy is diverse, with significant employers including the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community, which operates Mystic Lake Casino Hotel, and other companies like Seagate Technology. The county has experienced substantial population growth and ongoing commercial and industrial development, while still maintaining a rural character. Economic development initiatives focus on supporting businesses and cultivating entrepreneurship, with resources available for various stages of business growth.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Scott County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +1.6% YoY, population +1.1%, wages +6.3%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
15.4x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+1.6%

Below national median

Climate & Terrain
-3.0

Below-average climate & terrain

Price/Rent
20x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 15.4x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    SMSC Gaming Enterprises (Mystic Lake Casino Hotel & Little Six Casino) Hospitality
    5,000+
  2. 2
    Goodwill Industries Other
    1,000+
  3. 3
    Valleyfair Amusement Park Hospitality
  4. 4
    Shakopee Public Schools Education
  5. 5
    Seagate Technology Technology
  6. 6
    Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools (ISD 719) Education
    500+
  7. 7
    Fabcon Precast Manufacturing
  8. 8
    Hy-Vee Grocery Retail
  9. 9
    New Prague ISD 721 Education
  10. 10
    Scott County, Minnesota Government

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Scott County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
154,557
+1.05% YoY
Median Household Income
$119,314
Median Home Value
$419,400
+1.63% 12mo
Median Rent
$1,568
Average Annual Pay
$66,027
+6.3% YoY
Employment
63,787
+1.1% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2845
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
4.54%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
44.1%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$454,445
Days on Market
29
Active market
Months of Supply
2.0
Seller's market
Sale-to-List Ratio
99.3%
Near asking price
Sold Above List
32.3%
Listings w/ Price Drops
35.8%
Building Permits (2025)
883
Single-Family Permits
570

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

A
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
1.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
5.4
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
55.5
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Well below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
44.0
Good
Good Air Days
66%
718 of 1,081 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
17
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
Ozone
Ground-level ozone
Yearly Trend
2021
39
2022
42
2023
51
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$521M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Blue Lake Battery Energy Storage Project
Xcel Energy
$271M Under Construction
Highway 169/Highway 282/CH 9 Interchange
Scott County, City of Jordan, MnDOT
$50M Planned
Dakota Prairie Composting Facility
Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community (SMSC)
$50M Operating
LaunchPad Golf The Meadows
Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community (SMSC) and LaunchPad Golf
$50M Operating
Shakopee CLT Single-Family Homes (Phase I)
Scott County CDA, K.A. Witt Construction
$50M Under Construction
Highway 13 Savage to Burnsville Improvement Project
MnDOT, Cities of Savage and Burnsville, Scott and Dakota Counties
$50M Planned

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +1.1% 68 percentile
Income Growth -0.8% 4 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.5% 89 percentile
Home Price Change +1.6% 50 percentile
Rent Growth +3.3% 56 percentile
Price/Rent 20x 16 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Scott County, MN a good place to move to?

At 22/100, Scott County faces headwinds that place it in the lower third of the 1001 counties we track. Median income of $119,314 combined with job growth of +1.1% suggests the local economy is struggling to keep pace with national trends.

Is Scott County affordable?

Housing in Scott County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $419,400 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.28, with rents averaging $1,568/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Scott County growing or shrinking?

Scott County is growing on multiple fronts. Population is up +1.1% year-over-year while employers added jobs at a +1.1% clip. Home values shifted +1.6% in the past year.

Are people moving to Scott County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 4.54% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Scott County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Washington County, MN 22 Olmsted County, MN 18 Dakota County, MN 27 Clay County, MN 32 Stearns County, MN 32 Carver County, MN 12 Sumter County, FL 22 Rockdale County, GA 22