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Cascade County, MT

RANK #39 / 1001 NAT  ·  POP 84,606

1YR FORECAST: +2.0%

5YR OUTLOOK: +39%

#15 Best for Families
Our model projects Cascade County's housing market to grow +2.0% over the next year, significantly outpacing the national average.

[01] Why Cascade County?

Cascade County, Montana, is defined by the Missouri River and its dramatic Great Falls, which Lewis and Clark were forced to portage around in 1805. The county seat, Great Falls, is Montana's third-largest city and serves as a regional hub, located about 180 miles from Glacier National Park. Commuting within Great Falls is typically short, with over 80% of residents traveling to work in under 20 minutes. The area offers extensive outdoor recreation, including over 50 miles of trails along the Missouri River for biking and hiking, and access to Giant Springs State Park, one of the largest freshwater springs in the country. The county's landscape blends rolling plains with parts of the Rocky, Little Belt, and Highwood Mountains, providing diverse scenery and recreational opportunities like fishing, hunting, and skiing.

Life in Cascade County offers a blend of community and access to nature. The public school system includes districts like Great Falls Elementary and Cascade Public Schools. While population growth has been steady, the county has seen recent economic activity driven by investments in data centers and energy sectors. Malmstrom Air Force Base is a significant employer in the area. The average commute time is 16.5 minutes, with most residents driving alone, though public bus services are available in Great Falls.

MARKET PROFILE

Idiosyncratic Markets

Cascade County's data profile doesn't fit any single market profile cleanly — its housing, labor, and demographic signals pull in different directions (home prices +4.1% YoY, population +0.0%, wages +5.3%). About 414 U.S. counties show this kind of mixed-signal pattern.

See all 414 Idiosyncratic Markets counties →

[02] Market Snapshot

Housing Ratio
10.6x

Overvalued relative to economy

Home Prices
+4.1%

Outpacing national median

Climate & Terrain
2.2

Moderate climate & terrain

Price/Rent
17x

Above national median (15x)

Housing looks overvalued at 10.6x — home prices are high relative to local economic output. The typical U.S. county is 4–6x.

[03] Top Employers

  1. 1
    Malmstrom Air Force Base Military
    2,500+
  2. 2
    Benefis Health System Healthcare
  3. 3
    Great Falls Public Schools Education
    1,000+
  4. 4
    Great Falls Clinic Healthcare
  5. 5
    Walmart Retail
    500+
  6. 6
    City of Great Falls Government
  7. 7
    Cascade County Government
    250+
  8. 8
    Centene Healthcare
  9. 9
    D.A. Davidson Companies Finance
  10. 10
    Cargill Manufacturing
    100+

Estimated local headcount ranges. Larger employers shown as floor + "+"; smaller employers show exact counts where reported.

[04] Home Value Growth vs National

Cascade County U.S. National

Bars show trailing 12-month growth. The dashed Forecast bars are the model's next-12-month projection; the whisker marks the ±1% range (cooling–accelerating).

The Numbers

DEMOGRAPHICS
Population
84,606
+0.01% YoY
Median Household Income
$67,690
Median Home Value
$265,300
+4.12% 12mo
Median Rent
$939
Average Annual Pay
$58,333
+5.3% YoY
Employment
36,181
-0.9% YoY
Income-to-Home-Value
0.2551
More affordable than average
Migration Inflow
2.26%
of pop. from another state
Bachelor's Degree+
28.4%
of residents (national avg: 33%)

Market Activity

REAL ESTATE
Median Sale Price
$339,900
Days on Market
51
Moderate pace
Months of Supply
3.7
Balanced market
Listings w/ Price Drops
20.2%
Building Permits (2025)
253
Single-Family Permits
153

Source: Redfin · Census BPS — Browse sales on Redfin →

[05] Crime & Safety

B-
SAFETY
GRADE
Homicide Rate
4.3
per 100K · nat avg 6.3
Firearm Fatalities
23.0
per 100K · nat avg 14.8
Injury Deaths
105.4
per 100K · nat avg 76.3
vs National Average
Below national avg
based on homicide rate

Source: CDC/NCHS vital statistics via County Health Rankings (2020–2022 avg). Rates per 100,000 population. Grade based on homicide rate relative to national average (~6.3). Learn more →

[06] Air Quality

B+
AIR QUALITY
GRADE
Median AQI (3yr)
33.3
Good
Good Air Days
74%
795 of 1,075 days
Unhealthy+ Days (3yr)
19
Sensitive groups affected
Primary Pollutant
PM2.5
Fine particulate matter
Yearly Trend
2021
27
2022
23
2023
50
Median AQI · lower is better

Source: EPA Air Quality System (2021–2023). Grade based on 3-year average median AQI. Learn about AQI →

[07] Capital Investment

$790M
TOTAL
PROJECT AMOUNT STATUS
Project Cardinal Data Center
TAC Data Centers
$600M Planned
Montana Wind Harness Project (multiple sites including Cascade County)
Ameresco Inc.
$150M Planned
Spion Kop Wind Farm
NorthWestern Energy (purchasing power)
$40M Operating

Source: public records, news, corporate announcements. Amounts are estimates where noted.

[08] Score Breakdown

Population Growth +0.0% 23 percentile
Income Growth +2.2% 36 percentile
Vacancy Rate 0.8% 70 percentile
Home Price Change +4.1% 79 percentile
Rent Growth +5.9% 85 percentile
Price/Rent 17x 36 percentile

Bars show percentile rank among all 1001 counties.

[09] Frequently Asked Questions

Is Cascade County, MT a good place to move to?

Cascade County ranks #39 out of 1001 U.S. counties on the Boom Town Index with a score of 96/100. The composite score reflects long-term strength — housing, income, and migration patterns — but near-term hiring is soft (employment is down 0.9% year-over-year). Median household income here is $67,690.

Is Cascade County affordable?

Housing in Cascade County is roughly in line with national affordability norms. The median home costs $265,300 and the income-to-home-value ratio sits at 0.26, with rents averaging $939/month. Not a bargain, but not a stretch for most local earners either.

Is Cascade County growing or shrinking?

Population and employment in Cascade County are both close to flat — population +0.0% YoY and jobs -0.9%. Home values shifted +4.1% over the past 12 months. A steady-state county, neither expanding quickly nor shrinking.

Are people moving to Cascade County?

There's a moderate stream of newcomers. About 2.26% of residents moved from another state, which is above average and suggests Cascade County has appeal as a relocation destination — though it's not among the highest-inflow counties nationally.

[10] Similar Counties by Size & Score

Lewis and Clark County, MT 69 Yellowstone County, MT 36 Missoula County, MT 28 Flathead County, MT 26 Gallatin County, MT 10 Elmore County, AL 96 Clearfield County, PA 96 Aroostook County, ME 96